5-at-10: NFL power poll, Mocs get big home test, Rushmore of Robert Duvall roles

Driver Danica Patrick prepares before practice for tonight's NASCAR Sprint Cup series auto race at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, N.C., Friday, May 16, 2014.
Driver Danica Patrick prepares before practice for tonight's NASCAR Sprint Cup series auto race at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, N.C., Friday, May 16, 2014.

Morning gang. Stay warm out there.

From the "Talks too much" studios, let's go.

NFL power poll

Black Monday - the day after the NFL regular season when several coaches and GMs from disappointing teams are out of work - has passed.

There are six openings, and several of them are listed among the powerless part of our weekly NFL power poll.

photo File- This May 29, 2013, file photo shows Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam during a news conference in Cleveland. Authorities say the truck-stop company owned by Jimmy Haslam and Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam has agreed to pay $92 million in fines for cheating customers out of promised rebates and discounts. The agreement was signed by attorneys for the nation's largest diesel retailer Friday. The agreement does not protect any individual at Pilot from prosecution and requires the company to cooperate with an ongoing investigation of current and former employees. Haslam has said he was unaware of the scheme. Tenn. Gov. Bill Haslam is not involved in Pilot's day-to-day operations. (AP Photo/David Richard, File)

The turnover in Cleveland is unprecedented. In the five years of Jimmy Haslam's ownership, he is now looking for this fourth coach and his fourth general manager.

Wow, and you think Johnny Football is dysfunctional. (Side point: Reports that Johnny Manziel was wearing a fake wig and glasses on his reported recent party tour through Vegas last weekend is priceless. Can you imagine the stories that some random dude from Des Moines came back with Monday? "Man, I swear I was playing blackjack with this dude that had all these hot girls around him and he looked just like Johnny Football if he had a huge 'stache, a platinum blond hair and glasses. It was cool." What?)

Cleveland's futility in the front office got us thinking about connections in sports. This is less about, say, Montana-to-Rice or Jordan-and-Pippen, as it is about continuity and connection within an organization.

To that end, off the field, there is no bigger importance on connection than between and NFL GM and his coach, and vice versa since in a lot of places - like Atlanta on New England - the coach swings the bigger stick.

Talent rules the NBA. (David Blatche could very well win an NBA title looking a lot like Cousin Eddie, and Luke Walton could very well be the coach of the year with an official 0-0 record.) A baseball manager is growing more and more insignificant with each passing analytical year, and the GM's worth is growing at a inversely proportional rate. Hockey? A reliable kitchen timer could make line changes, and how hard is to say, "Hey, Crosby, go score a goal."

photo New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick watches the action from the sideline in the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

But in the NFL, with meshing systems and talent and the annual growing importance of scouting since the draft is the lifeblood of every good franchise, connection between head coach and GM in the NFL can't be overstated. It's one of the reasons NFL owners have been so willing to give the keys of an organization to guys like Parcells or Belichick or Johnson or Holmgren. Those guys build their teams to their systems, and they have been or were accomplished enough to have the street cred to be the head of the front office too.

There's very few of those dudes around, and finding one can deliver a dynasty in a sport designed for parity. Ask yourself if the Patriots had to trade one - Tom Brady or Bill Belichick - who would they deal?

It's not as clear cut as most would think.

So with that, if you team is looking for a new coach and/or a new leader of the front office, watch who they track.

Don't be scared off by retreads, per se. Remember Belichick was on team three before he found the perfect fit to springboard to the Rushmore of all-time NFL coaches.

We'd look long and hard at guys who have been head coaches and are current coordinators - hi Josh McDaniel - because you have to believe they have learned from their mistakes.

photo Alabama football coach Nick Saban talks with the media in their arrival press conference, Saturday, Dec. 26, 2015, at Hilton Anatole in Dallas. (Vasha Hunt/AL.com via AP) MAGS OUT; MANDATORY CREDIT

We would be very scared of any college coach not named Nick Saban because at power college programs, the head coach is coach/GM/owner/poobah/supreme overlord/you name it, and he cherishes that power. (As for Saban, we'd give him the keys of our NFL team and say name your price and tell us who you want to hire. Dude is a supreme talent evaluator - and if he just wanted to be GM, then we'd be OK with that too - and has a process that is known to be successful.)

And we know this for sure: Whomever Haslam hires, well, there's a real good chance he'll get another do-over in a few years anyway.

Power five (with Vegas odds to win the Super Bowl)

1. New England (9-to-2). Yes, Carolina has a better record. Yes, Arizona has a better roster. But, heading into the playoffs with the four-ring-wearing Brady-and-Belichick tandem has to count for something. Plus, with a bye this week, the Patriots are expecting Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola back, and added with Rob Gronkowski running through the middle of the field and Brady pulling the trigger, look out. The last time four white dudes had the potential to create this much havoc, The Beatles were going on 'The Ed Sullivan Show' for Pete's sake.

2. Arizona (9-to-2). Yes, the Cardinals were housed by Seattle in Week 17. And yes, they would have to go to Carolina if the seeds held in the NFC title game. But look around, and the Cardinals are built for success in today's NFL by a) throwing the ball deep and forcing defenses to cover the length of the field; b) defending at an elite level with a top-three secondary; c) they rush the passer with four; d) and finally they have a trustworthy coach-quarterback tandem in Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer.

photo Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) is sacked by Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Bruce Carter (50) in the first half of an NFL football game in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, Jan. 3, 2016. (AP Photo/Bob Leverone)

3. Carolina (5-to-1). We believe Cam Newton has been the NFL's MVP, Luke Kuechly has been the defensive player of the year (yes, JJ Watt may win it, but whatever) and you can make an argument that Ron Rivera has been the coach of the year. Hardware is nice - and this case deserved for the great year the Panthers have had - but the playoffs are about trust. Who on that offense do you really trust other than Cam? Exactly.

4. Seattle (6-to-1). There is nothing like postseason experience. Well, except for talent. And the Seahawks are flushed with each. Again, we try to envision playoff success by asking who we trust. Other than the Patriots, who do you trust more when all the chips are on the table than these Seahawks.

5. Pittsburgh (7-to-1). Speaking of trustworthy coach-to-quarterback combinations, the Steelers terrify the rest of the AFC. And in a stroke of good luck for the Patriots, when the Steelers topple the Bengals - who deserved a better fate than not having a healthy Andy Dalton in the playoffs - Pittsburgh heads to Denver. Here's a tip for forecasting playoff success beyond finding coaches and quarterbacks to trust, look for a team with a truly elite skill that does something better than everyone else. In this case, a tasty round-two meeting between Denver and Pittsburgh features the most explosive offense against the NFL's best defense. Yes, we've left off the Broncos because ask yourself this: Why was everyone so ecstatic over Peyton Manning coming off the bench to hand-off in a come-from-behind win over a woeful 4-12 Chargers team? We want to believe Manning has one more ride in the sunshine - and I do too - but can we really trust these Broncos?

Powerless five (with draft order spot)

28. Jacksonville (No. 5 overall). For all the talk of improvement and the fantasy stats that quarterback Blake Bortles and receiver Allen Robinson posted, the Jaguars are again in the top five in the draft order after playing in the worst division in the league and one of the easiest schedules. Jacksonville has a top-five overall pick for the fifth consecutive season and this will be the ninth consecutive year that the Jags have a top-10 overall pick. That's consistency friends. They are the Patriots of stink.

29. San Diego (No. 3 overall). How bad are the Chargers? Well, they are dwelling near the bottom of the league and that's with a healthy quarterback in Philip Rivers who likely is headed to the Hall of Fame. Yes, we have said for months now that the Chargers should deal Rivers - seriously, package Rivers to Cleveland for the No. 2 overall pick and a third-rounder and restart the rebuild for when the team moves to L.A. - but his numbers are elite. Don't think so? Well, Rivers is 14th all-time in passing yards with 41,447 and with an average season next year will move into the top 10 (Drew Bledsoe is 10th with 44,611). Rivers' 281 TD passes is 11th, and again with an average year next season, he will pass John Elway's 300, which ranks seventh. Now know that Rivers just turned 34, so he has at least three good years left. And the Chargers stink so bad they have a top-three pick with a Hall of Fame quarterback. That's doing something.

30. San Francisco (No. 7 overall). The 49ers are the picture of where a franchise can land when there's a terrible connection between coach and GM. Three years ago, the 49ers had the best roster in the NFL and respected league pundits like Ron Jaworski said quarterback Colin Kaepernick had the skill set to be among the very best in the NATIONAL Football League. Well, GM Trent Baalke feuded with then-coach Jim Harbaugh, which led to Harbaugh turning Michigan around and the 49ers imploding to the point that they fired Jim Tomsula after one year with more than $10 million left on his contract and appear likely to cut Kaepernick in the coming weeks. Is there any doubt the 49ers roll the dice on Paxton Lynch, the Memphis quarterback who could't find the end zone in the Birmingham Bowl against an Auburn defense that surrendered more than French in the 1940s?

photo In this image released by Disney, Kevin Costner, foreground left, and Carlos Pratts appear in a scene from "McFarland, USA." (AP Photo/Disney, Ron Phillips)

31. Cleveland (No. 2 overall). When the highlight of your organization is "Draft Day" - the so-bad-it-is-enjoyable (yes, it's kind of a sports movie akin to "Roadhouse") Kevin Costner movie of a few years ago - well that's less than enjoyable. And that ladies and gentlemen, is the Jimmy Haslam era in Cleveland.

32. Tennessee (No. 1 overall). How important is an NFL head coach? Ask yourself this Johnny Titans Fan, would you trade No. 1 overall for Belichick? You bet you would.

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College hoops

If you are a college hoops fan, the season really starts this week with conference play in full swing. (Yes, we are on the side of Weeds and many others that pushing the season back would help the game, but that's a pipe dream.)

Here are a couple of interesting story lines:

* How faded is the college basketball regular season? Well, know this: If last night's Kansas-Oklahoma matchup between the top two-ranked teams in the country that went into triple OT before the No. 1 Jayhawks 109-106 had been a college football game, well, forget being the top ESPN story, it likely would have led Good Morning America today. That said, how's this for a crazy stat? Kansas coach Bill Self has more Big 12 regular-season titles (11) than he has losses at Allen Fieldhouse (nine). Wow.

photo New UTC men's basketball coach Matt McCall has kept the Mocs playing well in the first half of the 2015-16 season after a strong showing in the second half of last season. They're 11-2 entering Saturday's Southern Conference opener against The Citadel.

* We truly enjoy watching LSU forward Ben Simmons play. He will get his chance against Kentucky tonight. (Giddy-up). It will be the first time UK has played the No. 1 overall recruit (other than practice of course) in the regular season since Harrison Barnes was at UNC.

* We think Matt McCall is a bona fide star in the making. You know this. We also think his UTC Mocs will make a statement tonight against Mercer. We, like Jomo, will be interested to see how big the crowd will be. Here's hoping a majority of the lower bowl is full. Over/under 3,500? Whatcha got.

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Clarification on the Fab 4 picks

Side point about our entertainment gains because of a very fair question from Stewwie on Monday. Our picks finished 71-48 (59.7 percent) against the spread, and breaking that down, if you invested 100 entertainment vouchers on each pick we said you would have pocketed 1,820 entertainment vouchers, and that's with factoring in the 10-percent charge to your local entertainment broker on bad picks. Stewwie correctly asked about out frequent decision to buy the half on games that were on 3, 7 or 17 point spread (and sometimes more), because buying the half doubles your entertainment broker's fee on losses. So we went back through all of our picks - yes, all of them this year - and we lost nine times out of 29 buying the half.

Final bowl picks - 8-2 (3-0 on half buys)

Dec. 23 - 5-3 (0-1 on half buys)

Dec. 17 - 1-4 (0-2 on half buys)

Dec. 10 - 2-1 (0-1 on half buys)

Dec. 3 - 4-3 (2-0 on half buys)

Nov. 25 - 5-3 (1-1 on half buys)

Nov. 19 - 4-3 (1-0 on half buys)

Nov. 12 - 4-3 (0-0 on half buys)

Nov. 5 - 5-2 (2-0 on half buys)

Oct. 29 - 2-5 (1-2 on half buys)

Oct. 22 - 5-2 (2-0 on half buys)

Oct. 15 - 4-4 (1-2 on half buys)

Oct. 8 - 4-2 (1-0 on half buys)

Oct. 1 - 5-1 (2-0 on half buys)

Sept. 24 - 4-2 (1-0 on half buys)

Sept. 17 - 4-2 (2-0 on half buys)

Sept. 12 - 1-4 (0-0 on half buys)

Sept. 5 - 4-1 (1-0 on half buys)

By our Auburn math that's 20-9 on half buys. More to the point on this year's picks, in losing those 90 entertainment vouchers (an extra 10 percent on each 100 entertainment risked), we know for sure that the following games were swung by buying the half: Michigan State minus-3 over Iowa in the Big Ten title game; Texas A&M minus-7 over Arkansas; Wake Forest minus-3 over Army; Miami minus-3 over Nebraska.

To Stewwie's point, our entertainment gains this year actually would have been 1,730, but that's well worth the four half-point wins (+400) that would have been pushes without buying the half.

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This and that

- The story that Alabama gets all the practice time it wants while Clemson has to cap it at 20 hours before the college football title game because of class scheduling is staggering. Until you remember that this is the NCAA. And now know it happened last year when THE Ohio State had unlimited time and Oregon was restricted. Yes, this happened last - THE Ohio State won 42-20, remember - and the NCAA did nothing. So perfect. But we really don;t think Nick Saban would practice or prepare or watch film for more than 20 hours if given the chance, do we? PUH-lease.

photo Danica Patrick poses by her new race car during a news conference to announce a new sponsorship for her NASCAR auto racing team at Stewart-Haas Racing's headquarters in Kannapolis, N.C., Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2015. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

- More money than sense, example 12,608: Meet Bob Parsons, the billionaire who founded GoDaddy.com. Yes, he paid millions for everyone to see Danica Patrick in a bikini during Super Bowl commercials, and for that maybe we all owe him a tip of the visor. But in the above link, Ol' Bob there admits to spending $350,000 on gold equipment. In one year. Let that soak in for a moment. More than a quarter-of-a-million for sticks and shafts and what not. In a year. He revealed this as he announced his new golf equipment company PXG, which has signed Zach Johnson, Billy Horschel and Chris Kirk, among other PGA Tour members.

- This is interesting. Yep, Guns-n-Roses is making a comeback. After playing Coachella, maybe they will come to Alexian for a show on Signal.

- NFL schedules (other than divisional foes on the road and at home): Falcons will go to Seattle, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Denver and Oakland; Green Bay, Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Kansas City will come to Atlanta. For the Titans, they are home against Denver, Oakland, Cleveland, Green Bay, Minnesota; Tennessee will go to San Diego, Kansas City, Miami, Detroit and Chicago. You can find next year's opponents for all 32 NFL teams here.

- Because we like things like this, here's a story about a Pittsburgh deli sending sammiches to the Buffalo Bills for beating the Jets and allowing the Steelers in the playoffs. That said, the sammich has cole slaw on, so while we would appreciate the gesture, we would politely say, "Thanks but no thanks." Cole slaw is the devil's side dish.

- Erstwhile thinker and philosopher Floyd Mayweather says there is racism in boxing and MMA. His main beef is that some fighter named Andre Ward is ranked No. 4 on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list when Mayweather believes Ward should clearly be No. 2. Oh the humanity.

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Today's question

We saw your NFL predictions and we'll offer ours on Thursday.

In honor of his 85th birthday today, let's go Rushmore of Robert Duvall movie roles. Go, and good luck, this one may get a little sticky.

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