Each offseason the professional gamblers in Las Vegas try to put out win totals for college football teams.
It's an exercise in futility for most of us, because Vegas is very good at what Vegas does.
For those of us who like to make the occasional wager - for entertainment purposes only, of course - those totals are quite intriguing. (The bet is whether a team will win more or less - over/under - than the total projected.)
So here goes, with teams ranked by largest over/under win total, as set by Vegas:
Alabama - over 10
Yes, Alabama is looking for a quarterback. Yes, Alabama faces uncertainty with its best - and potentially most indispensable - player as Cam Robinson awaits his day in court after being arrested for a felony in Louisiana. Still, the Crimson Tide defense is staggeringly loaded with NFL players and, for the first time in a while, a lot of returning starters. As long as Nick Saban is in Tuscaloosa, here's thinking double-digit wins is the baseline.
LSU - under 10
This may seem a double-standard, but LSU has a ton of returning talent - including a Heisman front-runner in Leonard Fournette - just like Alabama. LSU also has a huge quarterback question just like Alabama. That said, Bama's QB answer appears completely unknown; LSU's QB answer (Brandon Harris) appears completely wrong. If this line was 9.5, the bet is over; if the line was 10.5, the bet is under. But at 10 - Vegas is crafty like that - we think a nine-win season is way more likely than an 11-win one.
Tennessee - over 9.5
The Vols are the clear SEC favorite and ranked as one of the top seven or eight picks according to Vegas to make the College Football Playoff. That screams double-digit wins.
Georgia - under 8.5
New coach, new quarterback. Scary, right? Is there talent? Sure. Georgia may be on the short list of the biggest swing teams (meaning teams that could skew several wins in either direction of the total) on this list. If Nick Chubb is completely healthy, Georgia could contend in the East and clear this easily. If not, well, Kirby Smart's first year could look a lot like his mentor's first year at Alabama.
Ole Miss - under 8.5
The Rebels return the best quarterback in the league, as well as NFL-ready players in tight end Evan Engram and safety Tony Conner. Almost everywhere else, though, is in a state of flux. Add in arguably the toughest nonconference opener on the docket with the date with Florida State, as well as the crossover game with Georgia, and 8.5 seems to be a tall order.
Arkansas - under 7.5
Not unlike the LSU line, the half here is the difference. And that difference looks to be an early-season test at TCU. Lose that game, and even a 4-4 finish in the league leaves the Razorbacks with seven total wins.
Florida - over 7.5
Yes, there are quarterback concerns. But we're a believer in what Jim McIlwain is pitching down in the Swamp. And the math adds up pretty well here. Three nonconference dunks in UMass, North Texas and Presbyterian combined with overmatched SEC East foes in Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Missouri means Florida needs just one more victory to go over the total.
Auburn - over 6.5
These Tigers are the worst team in the country to predict. Think they are going to be good - like last year, when they were preseason top-10 - and they stink. Think they are going to stink - like in 2013, when they got to the BCS title game - and they roll. Here's a hunch that incoming quarterback John Franklin III will add the running element needed in Gus Malzahn's offense.
Mississippi State - under 6.5
It's always tough to replace the single most successful player in school history, and that's the challenge facing Dan Mullen's program. Mullen is a bona fide miracle worker - remember he had MSU right there in contention in November to win it all - but without Dak Prescott the unknowns outweigh the knowns. Add in a nonconference trip to BYU and seven wins seem like a tall order for MSU.
Texas A&M - over 6
In truth, this is the single wager I like the most. The Aggies have the following recipes for success: (a) a desperate head coach; (b) the best pass rusher in the country, Myles Garrett; (c) arguably the biggest perimeter playmaker in the league with Christian Kirk; and (d) a quarterback to believe in, Trevor Knight. This feels like a real dark horse team that is closer to nine wins than six.
Missouri - under 5.5
Another team facing a whole lot of new. New coach. New quarterback. But these Tigers' unknowns come with puzzles more than possibilities. Plus, with the season opener at a tough and fast West Virginia team, you have to think Missouri needs three SEC wins to top the total. Not happening.
Kentucky - under 5
This is a great total. Vegas has a way of doing that. They are good at these things, because that's how you build billion-dollar buildings and offer lobster dinners for $7.99. Kentucky has losable games against Southern Miss and Louisville on the nonconference schedule. Add in a West crossover game against Alabama, and the numbers start to crunch. Of the other nine, do you see six wins for the Wildcats? Neither do we.
South Carolina - over 5
Yes, there are a ton of questions facing Will Muschamp in the Gamecocks' rebuilding efforts. But if you analyze the math, this seems pretty clear. South Carolina should go 3-1 in the nonconference. Add in Vanderbilt and Kentucky and that figures to be an expected five off the top. This number feels a full win low, but then again, remember that lobster-dinner thing Vegas has in its corner.
Vanderbilt - under 5
Vandy has myriad issues on offense. Now add in a nonconference schedule that includes games (at Western Kentucky and at Georgia Tech) in which Vandy could be an underdog and a coin flip date with Middle Tennessee, and then a five total starts to look Himalayan. If Vandy manages a borderline upset and splits its nonconference games, who believes there are more than three SEC wins on its schedule?
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.