Fab 4 Picks
How was your week one? If you followed our picks here - and bought the half with the Yellow Jackets, as we suggested - you were fairly well entertained.
We hit three of five, missing horribly on LSU and underestimating the grudge that Lane Kiffin held against USC since the Tide put more than half a hundred on the Trojans to almost go over the total by themselves.
We could have been better, since we also ignored one of picking axioms. Rule 4 clearly states if Hawaii comes East of the Rockies and kicks off before 2 p.m., you lay the points. Period. End of discussion. The Rainbow Warriors fit that bill, catching 40-plus points going to Michigan. They needed another three touchdowns as Michigan won 66-3. Opportunity missed.
And that's what successful entertainment-only picks are about opportunity.
In week two, that opportunity is picking which teams struggled in week one but are better than they showed, and conversely, better than the price Vegas has placed on them. Here's our guess about buying low in a week two that offers little intrigue but a lot of opportunity: (Lines as of Thursday morning on Vegasinsider.com)
Tennessee minus-11 over Virginia Tech. Yes, we are banking on the overreaction on a poor debut dropping this price under 14. It's one that Tennessee should win by multiple touchdowns. But we all know that 'should' should be a dirty word in entertainment hunting circles.
Duke minus-5 over Wake Forest. Yes, we know that Rule 5 clearly states to avoid ACC league games, playing poker with guys nicknamed after a city and women with a dagger tattoo anywhere on their bodies. Still, Duke has been reliably solid - a rare opportunity in that league - under David Cutcliffe in regard to entertainment investments.
Vandy-MTSU under the 48. Are we ignoring Rule 3, that tells us, "If a line looks too good to be true, it normally is" on this one? Maybe. But we are mebracing Rule 2 that tells us you find something you think you know, and you go with it until the well runs dry. We know that Derrick Mason's Vandy teams have been better than expected on defense and worse than imaginable on offense. Research alert (and don't get spoiled): After last week's tight 13-10 loss to South Carolina, the 'under' in Vandy games is 12-1-1 since the start of 2015 with Mason in charge. Anchors - and point totals - down indeed.
Iowa minus-14 over Iowa State. This is a quality price for a complete mismatch in almost every phase. How confident are we here? Not eve buying the half on a highly likely football number. Take that Cyclones. Side note: Of all the storm-related or natural disaster team names - Hurricanes, Tornado, et al. - Cyclones is the worst. Unless there's a Herd of Locust out there. Or maybe the Fighting Famines.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread (60 percent).
Season: 3-2 against the spread (60 percent).
In this Sept. 3, 2016, photo, members of the University of Tennessee grounds crew paint the "Battle at Bristol" logo on the football field at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tenn. The "Battle at Bristol" between Tennessee and Virginia Tech on Saturday has been discussed for two decades and was announced three years ago. But the transformation of Bristol Motor Speedway into a 150,000-seat football stadium that could host the largest crowd in NCAA history was completed in a matter of weeks. (Earl Neikirk/Bristol Herald Courier via AP) SEC items of interest
Did you enjoy last week's drama and great theater? Great. Go watch the replays again, because this Saturday is the second worst of the season. (That November Saturday, the penultimate week of the regular season, before all the great rivalry games is downright dreadful. This is almost as bad.)
How bad is this week? Gary and Verne and the CBS crew are doing Florida-Kentucky, which is a fine choice for the marquee matchup if this is the third Saturday in February. So it goes, but still, let's find four items to check off your list as we all embrace in the glow that college football is back.
How many quarterbacks does "Upward SEC Football" coach Gus Malzahn employ this weekend? Auburn's offense was so stagnant against Clemson, that the word stagnant takes offense to the comparison. Malzahn used five players behind center - two running backs and three quarterbacks - and he's likely still searching for one that can be relied upon to move the offense. He even gave a large sample size to Jermey Johnson, who has gone from Heisman frontrunner to pariah in 13 short months. (Research alert: Johnson had 19 snaps at QB, and those plays generated a grand total of 30 yards. Time to retire the idea that Johnson is what Auburn hoped him to be last summer.) Auburn should handle Arkansas State on Saturday, but should has little to do with an offense that has this little identity.
Battle of Bristol; will it be a battle or a bloodbath? The hype has been as subtle as a NASCAR in your living room. That said, it's strange to be entering week two and have more questions about UT than we did last week. Can the offense emerge? Is Alvin Kamara out of Mike Debord's doghouse? Will the Vols actually call more than one vertical pass down the field, or has the NCAA put a directly proportional limit on UT's deep throws that is linked to the number of questions Butch Jones actually answers in the postgame news conference? (Last week, that number was one, so there's that.) We believe everyone in the UT program - players, coaches, fans, you name it - underestimated App State, and it became a scary finish. A struggle with Virginia Tech this week, though, may mean we have to look and see if overestimated these Vols.
Alabama's defense. Why? Because they are insanely good and fast and deep and relentless. The Tide face a Western Kentucky bunch that threw for a billion yards last week with a new quarterback, and completed something crazy like 80 percent of its throws. That certainly won't happen, but here's betting Western gets more the a paltry six points USC mustered last week. Love them or loathe them, watching this Alabama defense play is fun, liking watching Dale Sr. drive and Tiger Woods charge back in the day. Appreciate the excellence and enjoy the experience. Well, unless your team is on the other side.
First team to 17 wins. Man, the quarterback play in the league right now is scattered and less than savory. We discussed the musical helmets the Auburn Tigers were playing, and how that didn't work. Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vandy, Missouri and of course LSU reach had quarterback issues that ranged from shaky to sketchy to stinky in erratic week one performances. Righting those situations becomes of the utmost importance this week, since most of the teams above are playing as rather heavy favorites. For Mississippi State and South Carolina, which face off in Starkville - as well as Vandy, which faces MTSU - those issues come in tightly contested games that could completely shape the season.
This Feb. 7, 2016 photo shows Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton (1) walking off the field during the second half of the NFL Super Bowl 50 football game in Santa Clara, Calif. Newton looks to put Carolina’s 24-10 loss to the Denver Broncos behind him on Thursday, Sept. 8, 2016 when the two teams meet in a Super Bowl rematch to kickoff the NFL season. (AP Photo/Matt York) NFL team picks
It's here. It's all happening.
The NFL kicks off tonight with a game we are particularly interested in since we are an unabashed Cam Newton homer. (Quick Rushmore of our favorite pro athletes to watch is LeBron, Cam Newton, Clayton Kershaw and Jason Day. Release the hounds Stewwie.)
The Super Bowl matchup will be fun on a couple of fronts. First, it debuts the Trevor Siemian era in Denver. Secondly, it will be interesting to see what Newton can do in a passing game that welcomes back monster target Kelvin Benjamin.
The Panthers are on the shortlist of favorites in the NFC; the Broncos defensively are legit, but the offensive concerns are troubling.
With that, here's the 5-at-10's look at how the conference playoff pictures will shake out: (Heck, this is so money, we're not even sure they need to play the games.)
AFC
Cincinnati, North winner
New England, East winner
Oakland, West winner
Jacksonville, South winner
Pittsburgh, Wildcard
Denver, Wildcard
NFC
Arizona, West winner
Carolina, South winner
Green Bay, North winner
Dallas, East winner
Seattle, Wildcard
Minnesota, Wildcard
We'll then take Denver over Oakland and Pittsburgh over Jacksonville in the AFC and Green Bay and Seattle in the NFC wildcard rounds.
We'll take Cincy by a whisker over Denver and New England over Pittsburgh, with New England coming out of the AFC.
In the NFC, we'll go Seattle over Arizona, much to the chagrin of the Cardinals fans and Carolina over Green Bay, with Carolina making a play or two more to get back to the Super Bowl.
Thus we are left with a New England-Carolina matchup that will leave Stewwie viewing the Super Bowl the same most of America views this presidential election and asking if both sides can lose.
This and that
- He's back. The New York Mets have signed Tim Tebow to a minor league deal. So there's that.
- He's back, part II. Or he will be back in October. Here's Tiger Woods' announced plan to return to the PGA Tour. (As for Tiger being back to the old Tiger, well, that will never happen. Not for him. Not for anyone, considering he was winning about every other major for a three-to-five year stretch.)
- Tiger's announcement was met with a fair amount of hilarity on social media. From people turning photos of Trump's famous hat to "Make Tiger Great Again" to the declaration that Tiger playing makes the Safeway Classic the real fifth major. Good times.
- Here's TFP UT beat ace Downtown Patrick Brown's report that there is not a quarterback controversy in Knoxville. Man, the wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round.
- Interesting look at the five-star true freshmen in the 2016 recruiting class and how they fared in the opening weekend from 247sports.com. Three names to watch across the defensive line are Michigan's Rashan Gary, Clemson's Dexter Lawrence and Houston's Ed Oliver, as each had a huge impact in their team's performance.
- Art Briles said he made some mistakes. You think so, doctor? Briles saying he made some mistakes is akin to Jeffrey Dahmer saying he has a strange appetite or like Bobby Knight claiming he has a slight anger management issue. A mistake?Art Briles is lucky he's not facing criminal charges.
- The interview Briles did was with ESPN hug-master Tom Rinaldi. Was everyone else in Bristol busy on that day? C'mon, the tear-provoking tones of Tommy R. are not jiving with Briles' country mea culpa. They should have called Doris Burke in for that one. She would have walked him to the slockade.
Today's question
Feel free to kick around your NFL predictions. Hey, it's fun and it don't cost nothin' anyway.
Also, the mailbag has a spot or two open. So there's that.
Because we are in a giving mood, we'll offer a pair of Rushmores today. Play along with both, either or neither. That's up to you, because, well, as Colin Kaepernick has reminded us, we all have the freedom to speak or not speak. Stand or sit. Poop or get off the pot.
First, it was 224 years ago today that the Pledge of Allegiance was first recited. Rushmore of things that most people have memorized. (We'll go Lord's Prayer, the Pledge, "Now I lay me down to sleep" and maybe "Jingle Bells." Thoughts?)
Also, it was two years ago today that Truett Cathey died. Mr. Cathey left the world in a much better place than he found it considering the man invented the Chick-Fil-A chain. Rushmore of best restaurants with a drive-thru. Go.
And practice a random act of kindness on this fine Thursday.