Jay GreesonIf you've used the advice shared in this column, a 5-4 start to the season turned the corner last Saturday with an impressive 6-2 mark against the spread. Several rules and postulates have been shared for approaching these games, with the caveat that all picks are for "entertainment" only. One guideline that deserves repeating is that if you are seriously hunting "entertainment," remember not to look for entertaining games.
Period.
We will all be watching Florida at Tennessee for a variety of reasons. Be it vested or masochistic or professional or casual, that game has big interest around these parts. And there's very little feel of how to play the angles. (If you are one of those folks who has to have a little "entertainment" on every game you watch - well, first, seek help. Second, and this is not an official pick, the only direction to even lean toward in Gators-Volunteers is under the 44.
So there's that.
With that, let's get to the picks, and may there be much "entertainment" in our future (lines are from vegasinsider.com as of Thursday morning):
Nebraska minus-7 over Northwestern. Buy the half of course, and it feels like we may ride the Cornhuskers for a while. They are 2-0-1 against the spread. They have the potential for the new-coach bounce with Mike Riley, who has unified a divided locker room. This is Nebraska's first road game, but after escaping with a three-point win over Oregon last week, Riley's bunch is starting to believe. And this road test - Northwestern has home losses to Illinois State and Western Michigan already this month - is not exactly going to Death Valley.
Kentucky-South Carolina under-56.5. Last year, Vanderbilt was an under machine. A strong defense with a terrible carousel of quarterback play led the Commodores to a 10-1-1 gambling mark with the under. That's relevant because South Carolina may be this year's Vandy in terms of low-scoring games. South Carolina has played three times; South Carolina has gone under three times. Now comes a trip to Kentucky to face the Wildcats, who are one-dimensional (and some may say half-of-one-dimensional), and the home fans have not exactly been turning out in droves to support the sinking ship that is the S.S. Stoops.
Arkansas plus-7 over Texas A&M. Buy the half. There are a few games out there that Vegas has to hate. This is one of them, and a number like 7 on this game could be the painful, half-point buy, win both directions game. (For those wondering, you can buy an extra half-point on any line for a small entertainment exchange charge that is normally double the broker's fee, meaning you'd owe 20 percent on a loss rather than 10 percent. We recommend purchasing the half on lines at 3, 7, 10 and 14 for obvious reasons.) Arkansas-Texas A&M feels like a one-possession game that easily could go to overtime. With that, getting more than a touchdown seems quite entertaining.
Michigan State minus-5 over Wisconsin. When are we going to stop underestimating Michigan State? For us and the entertainment-hunting world, we need to stop now. As in right now. After pounding Notre Dame, Sparty gets a conference game and may face a quarterback making his first start. Yes, please.
Florida State minus-5.5 at South Florida. The only pause here is this very real question: Is Florida State merely a pretty good team? It's fair considering the Seminoles are 2-1 and really have only played one excellent quarter - the third quarter against Ole Miss in the opener - and have been sluggish the rest of the time. But this is going to be a road game in name only, considering Florida State will have a slew of support there. This line shows great tribute to the smackdown Louisville put on the Seminoles, but this still feels like a monster bounce-back opportunity against a less talented foe.
Last week: 6-2 (75.0 percent) against the spread.
This season: 11-6 (64.7 percent) against the spread.
It's hard to believe that after this weekend, almost all of the Southeastern Conference teams will be a third of the way through their schedules.
It took forever for college football season to get here, and now it's vanishing like free doughnuts in the break room.
Last week was amazing. This week, there is just as much intrigue, but the word to describe the feeling on the horizon for a lot of the teams and coaches involved is pressure.
Pressure-filled. Pressure-packed. Pressurized-pressure with a side of pressure on several pressure points.
In some of the games, seasons will be defined and directed. Some will have major legacy statements made. And at least one very well could jump-start the replacement process at a major program in the SEC West.
Pressure? Yes, please.
Auburn-LSU, Loser Leaves Town Bowl. Yes, that's a tagline to the old-school pro 'rasslin' cage matches, but it feels very real in this one for two coaches who are on the hottest seats in the league. A loss for Auburn means Gus Malzahn will have lost seven straight SEC home games. A loss for LSU means Les Miles, who was given an 11th-hour stay last year, will have two losses before October in a season when many thought the Tigers were poised to win it all. Yes, college football coaches are exceedingly overpaid. But here's betting neither Malzahn nor Miles have had a lot of sleep this week.
Can a duck pull a truck? That's the basis of the smack talk from Florida defensive back Quincy Wilson, who guaranteed the Gators will continue the streak over the Vols. It's been 11 years, meaning there are sixth-graders out there who have never known a Vols win over Florida. The Gators' streak is older than iPhones and Twitter.
Will this game define Butch Jones? It's a fair question, and I believe the answer is yes. Jones has embraced more clichés than a small-town politician, but a couple of his favorites are "one-week season" and many variations of phrases with "individuals" in them. Is this a must-win game for the Tennessee season? Sure it's huge, but the Vols could still reach their goals with a loss. Now, is this a must-win game for Tennessee fans? Absolutely. Here's betting Tennessee fans right now would gladly accept a banked win over Florida on Saturday and a loss to Alabama next month and go play 18 holes this weekend. And the narrative of Butch's ability in big games will either be further questioned or potentially tossed out the window. This game means much to Big Orange nation, maybe more than words can describe.
Ole Miss staring into the abyss. The Rebels have a ton of likable pieces, and they face the real possibility of starting 1-3. Georgia, however, springboards into a different realm of expectations with a win, and the maturation of freshman quarterback Jacob Eason will only continue to hasten and improve.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.