Fab 4 (plus 1) picks
We've learned our lesson. We are 14-8 against the spread so far this season. That's profitable.
Three of those losses were very avoidable considering they violated the most fundamental rule we have: "If a line looks too good to be true, it normally is."
Last week it was Michigan State giving up less than a TD at home to Wisconsin. Housed. The week before, it was Georgia giving less than a TD to a Missouri team that had looked awful the week before. Loser. A couple of weeks ago, it was Duke at home laying five against Wake Forest. (Yes, that Wake Forest.) Double-digit loser straight-up.
That's three clear times we jumped in on name rather than intel. We backed Sparty because they had drummed a Notre Dame that is as hollow and heartless as the Tin Man. Missouri looked bad, but we ignored how bad Georgia looked against Nicholls State because it was Georgia. Georgia and Missouri are each going to struggle at times, so that price was way to high because of name-recognition. As for Duke, well, that was the prime example.
There's at least one and several potential "too good to be true" (or TGTBT) lines on the board this week, and while we are tempted to go the other way on a few of these and bank on the knowledge that Vegas builds 5-star hotels and offers lobster dinners for $6.99 because so many players go to these sucker lines like catfish to chicken livers, we opted out this week.
Still, it's worth a warning on some of these TGTBT games. How about these: Penn State minus-3 against Minnesota after Penn State got hammered and Minnesota is 3-0. Stanford getting points at Washington, and Stanford is legit, but The Cardinal is without both starting corners and their fullback facing a deafening home crowd on a Friday night. Even Wisconsin getting double-digits with wins over LSU and Michigan State on its resume as the Badgers go to Michigan.
Be very careful. And remember, these picks are for entertainment purposes only (spreads are from vegasinsider.com from Thursday morning):
BYU minus-3 over Toledo. Buy the half of course, and some times you have to go with the team that has been thoroughly tested, even if they have struggled. The Cougars are at home - and at altitude, and a 10:15 Friday night kickoff - and have been absolutely heartbroken in three losses. BYU is 1-3 and the biggest margin of victory in all of its games is three points. It has played Arizona, Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. Toledo has played Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State.
Central Florida-East Carolina over 58. Two offensive-minded teams who are comfortable with their quarterbacks, here's a hunch that the winning team will be well into the 40s. This is the perfect over play on a game that features a tightening spread as we get closer to kickoff. This screams one-score game and potentially overtime.
Troy minus-13.5 at Idaho. Idaho is terrible. Yes, terrible. We are riding against Idaho all year. (Yes, we are planning on riding Nebraska all year too, but the price seems a little high this week with the Huskers giving up 21 against Illinois.) But Idaho, yep, the potato cakes are in the discussion for the worst team in the country despite a 2-2 record. (Two wins, each by three, over Montana State and UNLV; the two losses are to Washington and Washington State by a combined 95 points.)
Ole Miss-Memphis over 66. We think Ole Miss will win this one pretty comfortably, but the price begs a backdoor cover. Plus, there is a chance that Ole Miss starts sluggish after mauling Georgia last week. Still, the Rebels lost to Memphis last year, so coach Hugh Freeze should have his team's attention. The total is undervalued for two offenses that produced 122 points last week. That total is balanced by defenses that allowed 17 points last week against struggling offenses.
Washington State plus-2 Oregon. The wrong team is favored in this one. Here's a friendly tip when hunting entertainment. Vegas knows which teams are popular. Vegas knows which teams are good. Sometimes that means over-inflated lines that can be tough to read on very good and very popular teams. (Case in point: We do not pick a lot of Bama games because they always are giving up an extra 4 points in every line because the Tide are fan favorites and are good enough to cover the extra cushion.) Well, every now and then you can find name teams who are overvalued because of their popularity. Take Oregon for instance. You say "Oregon, man they have the flashy uniforms and have that fast offense and didn't their QB win the Heisman?" Well, yes on the unis, but there are no style points in the chase for entertainment. Yes, they play fast, but McDonald's has super fast service and well, fast is not always good. And yes, their QB did win a Heisman - three years ago. Oregon is ranked 61st among the 65 Power Five conference teams in defensive efficiency.
Last week: 3-2 (60 percent) against the spread
This season 14-8 (63.6 percent) against the spread
Tennessee linebacker Colton Jumper (53), a former Baylor School player, celebrates after Saturday's home win against Florida. As exciting as the victory was for the Vols, they say they're ready to move on as another SEC East game awaits this week at Georgia.SEC items of interest
Coach O in the head man's headset. Ed Orgeron is a lot of things. He's an awesome recruiter, and a maniacal defensive line coach. He also has a career won-loss record at Ole Miss (not good) and USC (pretty impressive as the interim a few years ago). Now he gets to add eight games as the interim coach at LSU after the Tigers fired Les Miles last Sunday. For Coach O - a Louisiana native - this certainly is a dream opportunity that starts Saturdaywith a home game against Missouri. Will LSU be flat? Will it be inspired? Hard to know, but Coach O's dream audition starts in Death Valley.
Next step for UT. The Vols vanquished the 4,000-pound monkey on its back with a near-perfect second half to topple Florida last week and end the Gators' 11-game run in the series. You may have heard something about it; it made most of the papers around these parts. Now comes a chance for the Vols to grab the SEC East race by the collar and shake it into a place of near-submission. UT's defense will be without its best corner (Cam Sutton), and is trying to overcome injuries to its best two linebackers (Darren Kirkland and Jalen Reeves-Maybin), but as long as Derek Barnett's on the field the Vols defense can cause trouble. Georgia doesn;t want to hear injury talk since the status of all-star running back Nick Chubb is still uncertain. UT conquered its Gator-demon, can the Vols handle the next step of handling their business as an SEC road favorite? We'll see.
Aggies building steam. Texas A&M has been the most surprisingly impressive team in the league to date. A 4-0 mark includes a win at Auburn, a neutral-site win over Arkansas and a home win over UCLA. Now comes a marathon trip to South Carolina, which stinks on offense. A&M is favored by more than 17, which is a testament as much to how excellent the Aggies have been as it is to how undermanned the Gamecocks' roster truly is. But, with a monster October that includes a visit from Tennessee next week and a national showdown with Alabama later in the month, it's fair to wonder if Texas A&M, which has been rock solid for four consecutive weeks, will be able to continue its excellence.
Battle of Beale Street. Last year, the Memphis Tigers punctuated a season for the ages with a home win over Ole Miss. It was as shocking as it was solid. Memphis was the better team that day, with a first-round quarterback and a coach that was blazing his way to a Power Five job. To replace quarterback Paxton Lynch, who was drafted by the Denver Broncos in round one last April, Memphis has handed the keys to Riley Ferguson. Yes, that Riley Ferguson, who was anointed the people's quarterback during his short time in Knoxville before leaving school, transferring to a junior college and landing with the Tigers. Last week, Ferguson threw for more than 360 yards and six touchdowns. In two quarters. Yes, you read that correctly.
It's tough to see Memphis getting an Ole Miss team led by do-it-all QB Chad Kelly that is not well aware of what can happen if they are not ready. Hope the statisticians are ready and their pencils are sharpened.
Nebraska linebacker Michael Rose-Ivey (15), defensive end DaiShon Neal (9) and linebacker Mohamed Barry (7) kneel during the national anthem before the team's NCAA college football game against Northwestern in Evanston, Ill., on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2016. Rose-Ivey said Monday he and his family have received racially charged criticism on social media, and said the responses show why the protest is necessary. (Matt Ryerson/Journal Star via AP) Protests and politics crossovers
Three Nebraska football players took a knee during the National Anthem last week.
It was criticized by two board of regents members, including one who said the players should have their scholarships revoked. When asked about it on his weekly radio show, Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts called the protest "disrespectful" and "disgusting" when asked about it.
One of the players - defensive back Michael Rose-Ivey took to Twitter and asked to discuss the matter further with the Governor. An offer the Governor accepted.
Here's the story, as we wait for more details about the face-to-face, Nebraska coach Mike Riley supported his players and believe Rose-Ivey will be fine handling the meeting with the top-dog in the Cornhusker State. Here, from the AP, is Coach Riley's comments:
"Mike (Rose-Ivey) is a very, very thoughtful person, and I think he's a very aware person. These thoughts obviously didn't come overnight, nor did the actions he used on Saturday. I think that everybody should be reminded that there's lots of differences in people. I've got 140 kids on the football team and they're all different in their own beautiful way. Everybody should be reminded that this is America and we have an opportunity and right to be able to basically say what we feel and how we're feeling and why we're feeling that way. Mike did a great job of that and he should be respected through that."
This is a divisive issue on several fronts for a lot of people. That said, Riley's answer, and the back half of that quote is well played.
Along those lines, the man who started the anthem kneel-downs/sit-ins/raise your fist movements, Colin Kaepernick, weighed in with review of the presidential candidates after the debate earlier this week, saying that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were trying to prove who "is less racist." Here's the New York Times story. Here are Kaepernick's remarks on the debate:
"To me, it was embarrassing to watch that these are our two candidates," Mr. Kaepernick told reporters. "Both are proven liars, and it almost seems like they're trying to debate who's less racist. And at this point, talking with one of my friends, it was, you have to pick the lesser of two evils, but in the end, it's still evil."
Kaepernick's comments on Trump, who took great issue with the anthem protests and suggested Kaepernick consider leaving America and finding a country that works better for the back-up quarterback who will make more than $11 million this year:
"It's a very ignorant statement that if you don't agree with what's going on here, and that if you want justice, and liberty and freedom for all, that you should leave the country. Umm, no," he said. "He always says, 'Make America great again.' Well, America has never been great for people of color, and, you know, that's something that needs to be addressed. Let's make America great for the first time."
This and that
- The ACC has reported settled on Orlando on its replacement site for the conference's title game. The ACC moved the game from Charlotte because of the state of North Carolina's HB2 law covering bathroom selection. So there's that.
- The pitcher that allowed Tim Tebow's homer on the first pitch of Tebow's first at-bat in his first instructional league game with the Mets, took it all in stride Wednesday. John Kilichowski tweeted, "I thought we agreed you were taking first pitch @TimTebow" Well-played sir. On both sides.
- Detroit rookie pitcher Michael Fulmer needs three more innings to qualify for the AL ERA title. He has a 3.06 ERA, which is tied for the best in the AL, but Fulmer is scheduled to not make another start this season and would be the Tigers' starter in a wildcard playoff game.
- Lots of intrigue swirling with Alabama back-up quarterback Blake Barnett, who may be transferring or may not be. Here's Nick Saban saying he hasn't heard that.
- The Cavaliers organization is giving championship rings to all of its employees, roughly 1,000 people all totaled. Man, you are the coolest custodian ever if you are pushing a broom with a little bling, right?
Today's questions
First, have you sent a mailbag question in this week?
Second, today is Andrew Dice Clay's 59th birthday. Is Clay on the Rushmore of meteoric celebrity rise/flame out? Dude was a monster star for about five seconds and then poof. He's lucky to get a cameo in "Entourage."
Finally, Kevin Durant is 28 today. Is there a player in team sports in the 2015-16 seasons - in all sports - who has more pressure to win it all on him than Durant?
Go, and enjoy the day.