Since the Southeastern Conference expanded its men's basketball schedule to 18 league games per team, no school with more than seven SEC losses in the regular season has reached the NCAA tournament.
That's a small sliver of good news for 12 of the SEC's 14 member schools this morning, since all but Missouri (2-10 in conference play) and LSU (1-11) have no more than seven losses.
The bad news is that five of those remaining dozen already own seven league defeats and two others - Ole Miss and Tennessee - have six SEC setbacks each.
Which is one way of saying that if Tennessee's Volunteers expect to experience March Madness in the NCAA tournament rather than the NIT, they must beat Kentucky tonight inside Rupp Arena, or failing that, win their remaining five conference games. Or the Vols must win the league tourney for the first time since 1979.
Not that the Big Orange is the only league school slipping and sliding off that proverbial tourney bubble today. While conference tri-leaders Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina all would appear to have locked up bids barring a complete collapse, no one else seems the least bit certain to join them.
In fact, the closest teams to their 10-2 league marks - Arkansas and Alabama have 7-5 records - are projected now to be barely in and somewhat out of the Big Dance, though Arkansas must yet face South Carolina on the road Wednesday and Auburn and Florida away from home in two of its final three games.
Given that the Razorbacks looked awful a week ago against a Vanderbilt team that fell to morose Mizzou over the weekend - and Bama must yet play schizophrenic Ole Miss, Georgia and improving Texas A&M before wrapping up the regular season at Tennessee - it's not a stretch to envision neither the Hogs nor the Roll Tiders making it to the NCAA tournament.
So can anyone join the Big Three when the NCAA's First Four games tip off in Dayton, Ohio, four weeks from today?
Let's begin with the premise that an 11-7 league mark would again be the weakest conference mark the NCAA tourney selection committee would accept from an SEC school unless it won the league's automatic bid as conference tournament champ.
By that standard alone, Bama and Arkansas have to go no worse than 4-2 the rest of the way to have a shot, UT and Ole Miss must go 5-1 and Auburn, Mississippi State, Georgia, A&M and Vanderbilt must win out.
Since the Vols must visit Kentucky - which they beat 82-80 three weeks ago - and South Carolina (which beat UT inside the Boling Alley by 10 on Jan. 11), it's hard to see the Big Orange reaching the Big Dance. Not impossible - since the Vols should be favored in their other remaining league contests - but certainly a long shot.
And the worst thing about that possible outcome is that most of country would miss out on watching UT freshman forward Grant Williams, who just might be the best inside threat under 6-foot-7 (30 points against Georgia this past Saturday) that the SEC has seen since Charles Barkley starred for Auburn in the early 1980s. Williams is similarly muscular, though more chiseled than the Round Mound of Rebound was in those days, and has similarly outrageous hops. A definite star in the making.
There's no such individual talent at Ole Miss, but the Rebs did come from 23 down in the second half against Auburn and they are deep and dangerous enough to win five of their last six. Miss State's schedule would appear too tough to make a serious run.
Georgia has four of its final six at home, including a Saturday date with Kentucky - which it took to overtime in Rupp a couple of weeks ago - but with remaining road games at Bama and Arkansas it's hard to believe the Dawgs could run the table.
The same cannot be said for Auburn if the Tigers are able to shock Florida tonight on the Plains. Other than a trip to Georgia on March 1, the Tigers can easily win every other game on the schedule after tonight. And any NCAA tourney including Bruce Pearl is more interesting than one without him.
As for A&M and Vanderbilt _ who face each other Thursday night inside VU's Memorial Gym exactly 16 days after the Commodores won by 14 at College Station - neither seems solid enough to finish with winning league marks against the schedules they play.
Yet no matter what happens, the good news is that by the close of this week, we'll have only two weeks left before the SEC tourney begins in Nashville. The bad news is that it's getting harder and harder to see the SEC receiving more than three bids unless Georgia could upset Kentucky this weekend in Athens and get on an extended roll or the Vols can win at either UK or South Carolina.
But at least, according to UT coach Rick Barnes during his Monday news conference, there's still hope.
"All you can really do, and it's the truth, is you've just got to worry about today, win or lose," Barnes said. "Win, you've got to go get ready for the next one. If you lose, you've got to go get ready for the next one."
But for all but Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina within the league, one or two more losses will probably lose you an NCAA bid. Not that that's anything new for the SEC this time of year.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.