Wiedmer: Don't pick against Duke come March

Duke's Luke Kennard (5) attempts to drive around the defense of Louisville's V.J. King (0) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 14, 2017, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
Duke's Luke Kennard (5) attempts to drive around the defense of Louisville's V.J. King (0) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 14, 2017, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

For those wondering the proper way to celebrate once again being ranked the nation's No. 1 college basketball team, check out what Villanova did to visiting Seton Hall on Monday night.

Having lost to the Pirates in last season's Big East tournament, the defending national champs crushed the Hall this time around, winning 76-46. So anyone thinking the Wildcats are going to quietly surrender their crown is in for a rude awakening.

"We played well tonight," 'Nova coach Jay Wright told Fox Sports afterward. "That was our best (defense) this year."

But with the regular season now more than halfway done - with the NCAA tournament set to begin on March 14 and wrap up on April 3 in Glendale, Ariz. - which other teams are playing well enough to entertain similar championship dreams?

Closer to home, can the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga Mocs not only return to the Big Dance for a second straight spring but earn their first NCAA tourney win since the Sweet 16 run of 1997?

And regardless of who ultimately cuts down the nets, is there someone out there who could surprise the experts the way UConn did in 2011 or 2014? Or Butler almost did in 2010 and 2011, losing both times in the title game?

To return to this year's Associated Press preseason poll, the bluebloods Duke, Kentucky and Kansas, respectively, held down the top three spots, with Villanova fourth, Oregon fifth and North Carolina sixth.

To revisit the AP poll on Martin Luther King Day was to find Villanova at No. 1, followed by Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga and Kentucky, with North Carolina ninth and Duke at No. 18.

Are there lessons to be learned from those two polls? Perhaps. Especially where Villanova and Kansas are concerned. Both the Philly Felines and the Jayhawks are loaded with talent, experience and coaches in Wright and Bill Self who've won it all before.

As for Kentucky, which stands 15-2 entering tonight's SEC road trip to Mississippi State, the Cats have lost by five (97-92) at home to UCLA and by three (73-70) at Louisville. This might be the worst defensive team that John Calipari's had during his eight years in Lexington, but Big Blue is currently the second highest scoring team in the country (93.6 ppg) and the freshman backcourt of DeAaron Fox and Malik Monk may not only be the nation's fastest, but also its most explosive, given that Monk scored 47 on North Carolina and Fox has recorded a triple-double.

Gonzaga is once more big, deep and talented, and while the Zags don't play tremendous competition most of the winter in the West Coast Conference, they did absolutely crush previously No. 21 Saint Mary's 79-56 over the weekend.

Nor should anyone sleep on North Carolina and Duke. When completely healthy - which they haven't been most of the season - the Tar Heels might be better than last year's national-runner-up group. And if Duke can ever make point guard Grayson Allen understand he's playing basketball instead of kickball, if Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski can recover from his surgically repaired back and senior Amile Jefferson's foot heals and its stunning freshman class begins to play to its hype, the Blue Devils may still become the best team in the country.

That doesn't mean UTC can't stun someone early in the tournament. With senior experience, a high-end rim protector in Justin Tuoyo and enviable depth, the Mocs are built to surprise a No. 3 or 4 seed in an opening-round game if they can earn a No. 13 or 14 seed (their 1997 seed) from the selection committee.

Their current No. 74 RPI could hurt the Mocs - especially since there's almost no way to dramatically improve that ranking the rest of the season. But let UTC again win the Southern Conference regular-season and tourney crowns and its two-year dominance of the league might help it enough with the committee to avoid the dreaded No. 15 or 16 seeds.

So with the first game of the NCAA tourney's First Four now only 56 days away, who's most likely to advance to the Final Four?

Let's go with Duke, Kentucky - assuming ridiculous athlete and midseason signee Hamidou Diallo decides to play this winter - UCLA and Villanova. Pencil in Kansas, Indiana and Louisville as slight dark horses. Go with Creighton and Oregon as slightly bigger dark horses, at least as long as Creighton point guard Mo Watson (who's leading the nation in assists with 8.8 a game) didn't seriously injure his knee at Xavier on Monday.

But in the end, don't be surprised if Duke wins its second title in three years. Villanova may indeed look like a No. 1 team at the moment, but Duke has the nation's top talent, and with 56 days left to mold that talent, Coach K's Blue Devils should end the year where they started - at No. 1.

Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.

Upcoming Events