When you are picking college football games against the spread - for entertainment purposes only, of course - there is a hard and unavoidable truth. Sometimes you play the right side and get the wrong result.
It's one of the reasons that if you find someone hitting 60 percent or better, enjoy the entertainment ride. (Yes, we are right there, and yes we have kind of treaded water in the last month or so.)
But that's the buzz and the high of the hunt for entertainment.
Take last week. We had North Carolina State plus-2. The Wolfpack outgained Wake Forest by 168 yards but fumbled heading into the end zone in the final 90 seconds and threw a pick in the end zone on the final play in a 30-24 loss.
That's the difference between 4-2 and 3-3. Hey, it happens. Want sure things? Spend big coin for one share of Apple stock.
That's entertainment, baby. With that, let's get to a rivalry week slate that looks like a Thanksgiving-like buffet, filled with playable games.
UNLV plus-3 over Nevada. We speak often about what we know, and never is that more important than in a rivalry game. Here's what we know: UNLV has an emerging star in freshman quarterback Armani Rogers. UNLV, which lost to Howard in Rogers' college debut, is amazingly one win from bowl eligibility. Nevada is 2-9 and the wins are against Hawaii and San Jose State, each of which is 1-10 this year. Buy the half and ride the best player on the field and the team with the most for which to play.
California plus-7.5 over UCLA. Yes, UCLA has the best player on the field and the Bruins are at home. But UCLA just relieved coach Jim Mora of his duties, so that variable - which can be good or bad - is hard to know. Here's what is easy to see: Cal coach Justin Wilcox knows what he's doing, especially with an overachieving if still somewhat overmanned Golden Bears defense. And Wilcox has been excellent against teams that believe they have an elite quarterback and passing game, as Cal ranks No. 9 in the country and first in the pass-happy Pac-12, allowing just 168.4 passing yards a game. A win would get the Bears into the postseason, and here's betting they have something in mind for Josh Rosen and UCLA, which may have fired all its bullets in last week's rivalry setback against USC.
Boston College minus-3 over Syracuse. The Eagles have been an underplayed story. In a must-have year for head coach Steve Addazio, BC has been physical and competitive and found ways to win even after losing quarterback Anthony Brown to a knee injury. BC has won four of five, including a blowout of Florida State and wins at Virginia and Louisville, each a more difficult place to play than the Carrier Dome. Now know that BC tailback A.J. Dillion has more than 1,200 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs and gets to face an Orange defense that is allowing more than 5 yards a carry and almost 190 yards a game on the ground. Buy the half to be safe, but we believe BC gets win seven rather comfortably in this one.
Memphis minus-27.5 over East Carolina. Simply put, there's not a line high enough in this one. The biggest line on the board this weekend is Oklahoma State laying 41 against Kansas, and we think Memphis-ECU is a bigger mismatch.
Notre Dame minus-2.5 over Stanford. This is a very weird scenario for a rivalry of sorts in that Stanford may be wise to rest its players - including nicked-up running back and Heisman runner-up contender Bryce Love - for the Pac-12 title game next week. Stanford survived a physical game against Cal last week - another great job by Justin Wilcox, mind you - and Notre Dame hung on to beat Navy. This game has a lot of similarities between the N.C. State-Notre Dame game earlier this year, in which the Irish's strength - an offensive line littered with seniors headed to the NFL - against a talented front seven. Notre Dame rolled that day, and here's betting the Irish post a similar result this weekend.
Florida Atlantic minus-21 over Charlotte. OK, other than maybe Hawaii (0-9-1 against the spread in its last 10), Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls have been the wise play for entertainment hunters for the last two months. FAU is 6-1 against the number and 7-0 overall since the last day of September. Kiffin enjoys posting monster numbers - the Owls have scored 30 or more in each of those seven wins and are averaging 48.1 points in that stretch - because he can. He also has one of the best running backs you have not heard about in Devin Singletary, who has 1,524 rushing yards and 25 total TDs this season. Now know that Charlotte is dreadful and at home has losses to North Carolina A&T and Georgia State (by 28, mind you). Here's betting the Lane Train drops 60-plus on the 49ers.
Last week: 3-3 against the spread (50 percent)
This season: 40-26-1 against the spread (60.6 percent)
SEC ITEMS OF INTEREST
Ah, rivalry week around the league.
First down. Iron Bowl with everything in play. Yes, it's the SEC's biggest rivalry, but in truth, the country needs to recognize that this has been the most meaningful regular-season game for almost a decade. The winner of this game has played for a national title in every year but one since 2009, and that was in 2014 when Alabama won the game and lost in a national semifinal. As for this year's meeting, how Auburn handles that type of pressure will be quite telling. That amount of intensity and scrutiny almost always consumes every program in the country. The exception? Yep, those guys that get browbeaten by Nick Saban. Yes, Auburn smoked then-No. 1-ranked Georgia a couple of weeks ago in a similar setting. Well, it was similar in number but not in complete scenario. Georgia wasn't ready for that then, and you have to wonder if Auburn is ready for it now and is prepared to deal with the win-and-advance to the biggest of goals. Alabama is used to that background noise every Saturday, including the spring game.
Second down. Iron forged in the trenches. As for how the Iron Bowl will be decided, yes, how Auburn handles the moment and the magnitude is hard to overstate. How each offensive line handles the defensive fronts littered with future Sunday stars will be the difference. Plain and simple. If Alabama twists and overpowers the Auburn front and turns quarterback Jarrett Stidham into the wide-eyed sophomore who froze at Clemson, then game over. If the Tigers front allows Stidham to look the part of cool and poised five-star recruit like he did against Georgia, then game on.
Third down. State of confusion. It has been a dreadful season for the two Power Five programs in the great state of Tennessee. Heck, if you had a power poll of in-state schools, there's no doubt Memphis gets the 1 seed, Austin Peay has the best story and Brentwood Academy has had the most accomplished season. Then you have Tennessee and Vanderbilt and the duo's collective 0-14 SEC record. And you know what, other than an early gut-punch to Florida in which the Vols did Vols things and the train left Butch Jones' station for good, it really has not even been close in SEC play for UT and VU with the exception of tight losses to the ever-overachieving South Carolina Gamecocks. So, who you got in a game that features very movable objects and amazingly resistible forces? Vandy senior Ralph Webb, who, along with LSU pass rusher Arden Key ranks as one of the more puzzling disappointments in this year's SEC, could have a big game. Or not. Here's betting one team figures out a way to lose this one rather than the other way around.
Fourth down. And leave the head set when you are done. Kevin Sumlin and Bret Bielema will take sidelines this weekend not knowing if it is the last time for them or not. In truth, winning may not be enough to save Sumlin and Bielema from losing their gigs at Texas A&M and Arkansas, respectively, but it will be a lot of fun to see how their players respond for their coaches this weekend.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com.