Greeson: Prime-time Notre Dame, winless UNC Charlotte offer entertaining options

Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush breaks away from a pack of Boston College defenders, led by Will Harris, during their game last month in Boston. Wimbush has helped the Fighting Irish to a 5-1 record going into Saturday's game at Stanford. Boston College helped expose Louisville's defense during last week's 45-42 victory over the Cardinals.
Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush breaks away from a pack of Boston College defenders, led by Will Harris, during their game last month in Boston. Wimbush has helped the Fighting Irish to a 5-1 record going into Saturday's game at Stanford. Boston College helped expose Louisville's defense during last week's 45-42 victory over the Cardinals.

Around these parts, we make our picks against the spread.

For those unaware or new to this space, each week the professional bettors in Las Vegas set a line - also known as a point spread - on every Football Bowl Subdivision game in the country. If you see a line that reads Mississippi State minus-11 over Kentucky, that means if you bet on Mississippi State, it has to defeat Kentucky by more than 11 points to win in the eyes of the gambling world.

These picks, based on lines as of Thursday morning at VegasInsider.com, are made for entertainment purposes only - and please remember to chase entertainment responsibly.

UAB minus-7 over UNC Charlotte. Here's a little tip in the grand scheme of looking for entertainment: This is the eighth week of the season. If you can find a team playing its eighth straight game against a team that has had a recent open date, there is value there. When one of those teams is 5-1 against the spread - as the University of Alabama at Birmingham is - and the other is 0-7 overall and 2-5 vs. the number - as is Charlotte, which may be the worst team in the country - it's fair to call it an extra value deal. UAB is motivated and into this, and with two more wins the Blazers would be bowl eligible. In their first year back on the playing field after the program was shut down for budgetary reasons, that would make them one of the better stories around. (Yes, buy the half.)

Florida State minus-7 over Louisville. Man, at the start of the season, this game appeared to have much higher stakes. Here's what we know at this moment: Florida State has a lot of likable parts as it tries to rework its offense around its young quarterback. Louisville has a great quarterback and a lot of unlikable parts. Its defense allowed 45 points last week during a home loss to Boston College, which had a previous season high of 28 - and that was against the Fightin' Chippewas of Central Michigan. I believe Florida State is about to go on a bit of run, because there's simply too much talent around there. Unless Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson goes for 350 yards passing and 150 rushing, this one will become one-sided. (But buy the half to be safe.)

West Virginia minus-9 over Baylor. I'm buying stock in the West Virginia offense, which scored almost a point a minute in the final 29 minutes to rally past Texas Tech last week. And we all expect a 4-2 Mountaineers bunch to beat a bagel-and-6 Baylor crew, correct? Well, in four wins this season, the Mountaineers have scored 46 points once, 56 twice and 59 once. Against Power Five conference foes, Baylor has allowed 34, 49, 33 and 59. Yes, please.

Iowa minus-1.5 over Northwestern. This game is a Chicago-area nooner, and yes, I believe Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is a very good coach. But I also believe he is going into knife fights with squirt guns when it comes to talent. Consider this: The Wildcats are 3-3 with wins against Nevada, Bowling Green and Maryland, which is relying on its third-string quarterback. Their losses are to teams with personnel as good (Duke) or better (Wisconsin and Penn State). We believe Iowa's personnel to be better.

Notre Dame minus-3.5 over Southern California. You should buy the number to an even field goal to ease the Saturday night concerns, but this is the rarest of rare spots: Notre Dame may actually be underrated by the betting public here. As good as I believe Southern Cal quarterback Sam Darnold could be on Sundays, Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush may be better on Saturdays. And please do not forget about the injuries the Trojans have on their offensive line. This one could be close for a while, but Notre Dame is simply the better team and comes at a good price.

Last week: 5-1 against the spread (83.3 percent)

This year: 24-14-1 against the spread (63.2 percent)

SEC ITEMS OF INTEREST

The divide in the Southeastern Conference is great this season. Think Grand Canyon. Only bigger.

Alabama, Georgia and the rest of the league.

But Georgia is off this weekend, and Alabama might as well be.

First down. Rivalry in name only? Alabama was a 36-point favorite over visiting Tennessee as of Thursday morning. Yes, more than five touchdowns, and in Vegas's view, Tennessee in year five under coach Butch Jones is somewhere between scandal-ravaged Ole Miss (which was a 30-point underdog in Tuscaloosa) and Fresno State (which was a 42-point underdog). How did it get to this point? Yes, Alabama coach Nick Saban is the best in the business, but this scenario takes one side doing its best as the other does its worst. Considering the money and tradition and passion surrounding Tennessee football, the Volunteers shouldn't be a 36-point underdog against anyone this side of the 1985 Bears.

Second down. OK, there are some pretty blah-tastic games on the league docket. That's for sure. So, let's take another angle to the Tennessee-Alabama skirmish: Will this be the last game for Jones in Tennessee orange? It's a layered question, of course. Because if the decision is done, would you still pull the trigger if the Vols pull off the miracle of beating Alabama? Most likely not. But what happens if Tennessee pulls off a near miracle and finds the end zone and gets a special teams play, and Alabama has its worst game, and the final is 24-17? In actuality, the sample size is plenty big enough to have formed an opinion on Jones, regardless of what happens in T-Town, so a decision could already have been made, right? Plus, Sunday seems like the best day to announce such a change, because as uneven as LSU is and as typically November-esque this Tennessee season is, after Saturday's drubbing at Alabama, Jones and his bunch could circle the wagons and close at 7-5 or even 8-4. What do you do then? As for predictions, I think Saturday will get ugly for Tennessee players and fans. And I believe Sunday will get ugly for Jones.

Third down. Can Gus Malzahn save Auburn's season? The coach derailed six weeks of momentum and feel-good emotions in two quarters last Saturday evening against LSU in Baton Rouge. That was the ultimate case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, friends, and it falls in the laps of the coaching staff, which amazingly became more conservative than Fox News after building a 20-0 lead. Now comes a trip to Arkansas, and in a lot of ways a game that could help salvage the scuffling Razorbacks' season. If Malzahn can't handle Saturday's task - with dates against the big dogs and bitter rivals of Georgia and Alabama still on deck in November - his sweater vest is all but washed, friends.

Fourth down. Ole Miss looking to share the pain. OK, we all know Ole Miss is dealing with a lot of stuff. A lot. NCAA folks. A defense that is apparently allergic to form tackling. A lame duck staff trying its best to try its best. Hey, there are problems. Well, here's what they have: A legit quarterback with a slew of big, physical, capable wide receivers. And with the self-inflicted postseason ban, the Rebel Landsharks are always looking for a little extra motivation. Here's some: Former coach Ed Orgeron rolling into town and talking about chicken on a stick at the Exxon in Oxford.

Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com and 423-757-6343.

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