Cue Maximus: "Are you not entertained?"
Perfect weeks against the spread should be celebrated. They should be remembered. And when possible, they should be duplicated. As often as possible.
But after a 5-0 week - yes, the Wake Forest-Boston College under of 46 with a 34-10 final was close, but I'll take close on the positive side every time - you would think I'd be brimming with confidence.
Think again. I do believe, as Crash Davis told us in the late 1980s in his turn with the Durham Bulls, "A player on a streak has to respect the streak, because they don't come around that often."
Good tip.
With that, this week we need to go back to our picking keys. What trends do we trust? (Sadly, the frisky Indiana Hoosiers had their game canceled.) Know this: If teams improve the most from the first week to the second, Vegas improves its adjustments on the spreads the most between the second and third weeks. (Lines are from Vegasinsider.com as of Thursday morning.)
UMass-Temple under 52. Hey, I never promised these picks were going to cover the more aesthetically entertaining games. I try to find games that are entertaining to the bottom line. These teams have played five games combined and scored 28 or fewer points four times. Temple is averaging 16 points a game. (Just a reminder, because this one certainly did not set off the DVR, but this game is tonight.)
Duke minus-14 over Baylor. No, basketball season has not started. And for the first time since Steve Spurrier was in Durham, Duke is content with the fall and the football program. Let's say it: David Cutcliffe needs to be on those lists of the top 20 coaches in college football. Dude knows what he's doing. If Liberty can drop 48 at Baylor, Duke's going to be running lay-up drills. Buy the half to guard against a backdoor cover, but here's a thought that the homesteading Devils are going to run away from the Bears.
Kansas State minus-4 at Vanderbilt. Commodores coach Derek Mason has done some great things in Nashville, returning Vandy to a place of competitiveness while cleaning up a lot of the off-the-field issues James Franklin left behind. I think these Commodores will qualify for a bowl. I think their defense has a lot of playmakers. And I believe Kansas State is a lot better than Vandy. Kudos to the Wildcats for playing a real road game against a real opponent, but the math here is pretty simple: A team that figures to contend with the big boys in the Big 12 should be more than a touchdown better than a lower-half team in the Southeastern Conference.
Ole Miss-California over 72. California is averaging 34 points a game. Ole Miss is averaging 46. Math, people. Math. On a serious note, each team likes to air it out, and here's betting Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson is going to put up some Madden 18-type numbers. When this game hits 41-34 heading into the fourth quarter, turn off the TV, go to bed and know that you were entertained.
Texas-Southern California over 67. Maryland put 51 points on the Longhorns in Austin two weeks ago. Texas has scored 41 and 56 in its first two games under new coach Tom Herman. Southern California has the best passer in college football. (Notice I did not say best college quarterback. Oklahoma's Baker "Flag-planter" Mayfield and Louisville's Lamar Jackson are still around.) But Sam Darnold can sling it, and Texas is going to have a hard time stopping him. The only way for Texas to stay competitive is to score. A lot. And considering the Trojans could get to half a hundred, all Texas needs is 17. Yes, please.
Last week: 5-0 against the spread (100 percent).
This year: 9-1 against the spread (90 percent).
As we head to the midpoint of September and the games switch from nonconference donnybrooks and money-driven homesteading whitewashes, SEC-on-SEC hate is picking up. So, too, are the questions.
In fact, other than Alabama - which has fewer questions than Helen Keller at a sign language seminar - everyone still has some wondering about where they are and where they could be headed. (Side note: If you are an Alabama fan, does this become boring? Crimson Tide fans know that almost every single week will bring a win, and the only things to worry about are whether their reigning SEC offensive player of the year has improved enough in the offseason and which five-star linebacker is going to fill in for an injured five-star linebacker. Woe is them.)
With that, let's put the ball in play and keep an eye on some of these things.
First down. Tennessee-Florida. Is this Florida's last stand? It's hard to think that a team is facing a make-or-break scenario in its second game, but isn't that what the Gators have after getting housed by Michigan and then having what was supposed to be their second game canceled? The Swamp will be rocking, the Gator Chomp will be everywhere, and more importantly for Florida fans, the Tennessee defense will be prominently involved. That leads to this question: What happens when a movable object faces a resistible force? We'll find out. Winner takes the first step toward losing to Alabama in December in Atlanta. Hey, for funsies, can the losing coach have his picture taken naked on a shark? Deal.
Second down. Auburn offense. Shhhh, but Auburn has figured out how to end an offensive malaise that has been around since quarterback Nick Marshall left campus. Yep, the Tigers are putting offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey in the booth. Cue the Guinness beer commercial cartoon guys: "Brilliant!" The results for the high-tech, next-level, chess-not-checkers decision for Lindsey to take the elevator rather than the tunnel will not be overly clear considering Auburn hosts Mercer this week. Know this: If the offense can't find a rhythm and some production, Lindsey and the rest of the staff - including head coach Gus Malzahn - will be making a bigger, more permanent move sooner than later.
Third down. Dan Mullen vs. Ed Orgeron. Mullen has to really like his Mississippi State team. He's got an interview swagger that screams of confidence come Saturday. A lot of that comes with having a quarterback you trust to do the right things and make big plays - Nick Fitzgerald. It also helps to have a couple of five-star defensive studs. Ask Orgeron, considering LSU always has five-star defensive studs. This one has a chance to be a lot of fun.
Fourth down. How 'bout that Coach Boom? Will Muschamp's South Carolina defense flexed a lot of muscle last week in its 31-13 win against Missouri, which had been rolling. But quarterback Jake Bentley, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and the rest of the offense has been doing work, too. Also of note: Now that SEC teams are playing SEC teams with SEC officials, here's wondering who will be the first coach to get a 15-yard penalty for coming on the field to talk to an official? Vegas has Coach Boom among the favorites.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.