Professional sports can be viewed as one of society's last meritocracies. Talent is the trump card. If you can play, you will play.
Teams can't win games without talent. But they can't win championships without timing.
Championship franchises are based on skill and forged by circumstances.
What happens if Michael Jordan does not hit that falling-away jumper over Craig Ehlo to beat the Cavaliers and push the Bulls to an upset win in a first-round playoff series in 1989? It was the first signature clutch moment for Jordan, the first playoff series win for Chicago and the beginning of the end for a talented Cleveland team that had swept the Bulls during that regular season.
What happens if Joe Montana's throw on "The Catch" is two inches higher, out of Dwight Clark's reach?
What happens if Mark Wohlers doesn't hang a slider to Jim Leyritz? What happens if Scott Norwood doesn't push his potential Super Bowl-winning field-goal try? The Atlanta Braves and Buffalo Bills could have been remembered as the dominant franchises of those eras rather than the Yankees and eventually the Cowboys.
The hypotheticals of on-field success or failure almost always are fruitless, of course. Those plays were made. Those dynasties became reality.
The true "What ifs" that can shape any franchise are formed from draft day. There are countless examples, both good and bad, where one pick on a roster of 12 or 25 or 53 players can shape the present and determine the future of any club.
If you don't believe it, ask any Indianapolis Colts fan. In 1998, there was a lot of debate between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. Sure, the answers today are clear as a spring day. Then Leaf was more athletic, Manning more mechanical. Leaf had more potential; Manning had more polish.
The outcome of that decision -- Manning is headed to the Hall of Fame; Leaf is out of football and been in and out of trouble with the law -- is obvious.
What if the Braves hadn't drafted Chipper Jones No. 1 in 1990, when everyone rated Todd Van Poppel as the best prospect since Babe Ruth? Sure Van Poppel made it clear that the Braves were not in his plans, but circumstances landed Jones in Atlanta, and a career that deserves Hall of Fame consideration followed.
Sure, it's easy to second-guess any draft and every draft pick. The elements of time and performance allow for a much sharper focus.
That said, the Atlanta Hawks will be doomed for the next decade because of the 2005 draft. These Hawks, who were booed at home Saturday during an embarassing blowout loss to Orlando, have hit their ceiling for the foreseeable future, and it's not pretty. They are the third-best team in their conference and have no chance at winning a title.
Look at the roster and the Hawks' glaring need for a true point guard is apparent. Look at the roster again, and wonder what these Hawks would look like with Chris Paul or Deron Williams -- two players they skipped in the 2005 draft to take Marvin Williams.
Now the Hawks are a solid if not spectacular team that will have difficulty maintaining that level if they can't convince All-Star Joe Johnson to resign and remain in Atlanta.
With Paul or the Jazz's Williams, the Hawks would be among the league's elite, a possible destination for any number of stars and even a championship contender.
"What ifs" are part of what make sports great, they often provide the embers for the emotion. For these Hawks, the 2005 draft "What if" will define a decade, if not more.
It's the "What if" that has become what a mess.