According to Nate Silver, a political statistician who writes the Five-Thirty-Eight column for the New York Times, the typical "Convention Bounce" is an increase in the polls of four or five percentage points. This year's GOP National Convention only gave Romney a one percentage point increase. That minimal uptick was the impetus for Clay's cartoon.
Here's a link to an article saying that President Obama is leading in the polls in three pivotal "swing state" Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
Yesterday I posted a comment regarding the fact that Rasmussen Polls tend to be biased in favor of Republicans. I further stated that such a bias could result from polling techniques, such as only polling people that have land lines (thereby excluding people who only have cell phones).
Here is an article from Yahoo News which buttresses my assertion:
Polls: Cell phone users prefer Obama, landline users like Romney
May 24, 2012
By Holly Baily
Political pollsters have been under pressure to make sure their samples include Americans who rely solely on cell phones—and the latest NBC News/Marist polls of Florida, Ohio and Virginia exhibit why.
As NBC's First Read flags, Romney narrowly pulls ahead in Florida among voters who were polled over landlines—48 percent to 45 percent. But among cell phone respondents only, Obama has a major lead: 57 percent to 34 percent.
In Virginia, the results are similar: Romney leads by 1 point among voters polled over landlines: 47 percent to 46 percent. Meanwhile, Obama has the advantage with cell phone respondents: 54 percent to 36 percent.
In Ohio, Obama does better among both landline respondents--44 percent to Romney's 41 percent--and cell phone users--47 percent to Romney's 37 percent.
According to the poll, 28 percent of its respondents in Ohio and Florida were cell phone users, compared to 27 percent in Virginia.
Rasmussen is noted for their blatant bias in their polls; they consistently favor Republicans. In one election, they had the Republican winning by something like ten points, when, in fact, he lost by roughly 15 points. A disparity of that magnitude is clearly attributable to intentional bias in their methodology.
It is easy to get different results simply by implementing different polling techniques. For example, it has been proven that you will get results that are significantly different (in the statistical sense of the term) if you only call people on their landlines, thereby omitting people who only have cell phones.
The bias in the Rasmussen polls was documented by a study analyzing the accuracy of a number of pollsters, performed by the noted political scientist Nate Silver, in his blog entitled Five Thirty Eight.
Here are the results of a study conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University showing that watching Fox News makes you stupid. Specifically, people who watched Fox News were less well-informed than people who watched no news at all. Conversely, the best-informed people were ones who listened to NPR.
Here is a quote from the news release that accompanied the release of the findings of that study:
People who didn’t have any reported exposure to news sources were expected to answer 1.28 questions correctly, a figure which rose to 1.97 for people just listening to NPR, to 1.60 for people just watching The Daily Show or listening to talk radio, and 1.52 for people watching Sunday morning shows. By contrast, people who reported watching just Fox News were expected to answer just 1.08 questions correctly.
To read the entire press release, go to: http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2012/confirmed/
President Obama's polling numbers increased 1.5% since he came out (pun intended) in favor of gay marriage.
To read the article from which this information came, go to: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/wonkbook-obamas-gay-marriage-bump/2012/05/22/gIQAMyZlhU_blog.html
"Registered voters are nearly twice as likely to say Barack Obama, rather than Mitt Romney, is the more likable of the two presidential candidates." Specifically, Obama leads Romney 60 to 31 percent.
To read the entire article, go to: http://www.gallup.com/poll/154547/Obama-Big-Likability-Edge-Romney.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication
Mitt Romney has an enthusiasm gap:
"A new Washington Post/ABC News poll found 93 percent of Obama supporters are enthusiastic about voting for him, compared to 75 percent of Mitt Romney's supporters who are enthusiastic about casting ballots for him.
Of Obama's supporters, 51 percent are very enthusiastic, while 26 percent of Romney's are very enthusiastic."
Obama is also leading in that poll 49 - 46.
To read the entire article, go to: http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/05/obama-has-enthusiasm-edge-in-new-poll-124173.html
Another unfavorable poll for Romney:
"according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released this week, 56% of those polled believe the president will cinch re-election this fall, compared to 36% percents who think Romney will win."
To read the entire article, go to: http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/17/politics/obama-likeability/index.html?hpt=hp_bn5
More bad news for Romney on the polling front:
In Gallup polling conducted earlier this month, 60 percent said Obama was the more likeable of the two presidential nominees while 31 percent called former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney more likeable.
And in a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, 56 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Obama while just 35 percent said the same of Romney.
To read the entire article, go to: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-a-jeremiah-wright-attack-probably-wont-work/2012/05/17/gIQAXOqCWU_blog.html?wpisrc=nl_politics