I think Kiffin has four gates to hit, and he won't hit all of them this year: an 8-game-win baseline, a big win against a traditional rival (Florida, Georgia, or Alabama) included in or in addition to the 8-game baseline, a January 1st or later bowl game, and win the SEC East/SEC outright.
Realistically, I think he wins the eight games, and I think he sneaks up on one of the rivals. That should get him to the bigger bowl game. SEC ranking, this year, would be gravy.
If he does the above, he's got room to breathe. His recruiting will take care of the house longterm.