From Stuck —
Again, I may be overstating my case on Michigan State-Ohio State. They are roughly even, where I give a slight edge to Michigan State. Very slight edge.
Sometimes I get carried away in analysis. Ohio State is good. Michigan State is good. I think the chances are 60-40 or 70-30 Michigan State wins.
Thanks for the update. And the playoff is coming soon enough. And the scenario-guessing won't change next year, we'll just be planning which teams gets bids three or four and who got shafted from 5-7.
You are right about the AAC — we somehow mis-read that and mixed it up. And maybe Stuck can guest host McLaughlin Group. WRONG.
OK, we'll agree to disagree on the Big Ten title game.
Ohio State at Michigan in the second-best rivalry game that means the season to Michigan is not an even canvas. When Ohio State beat Northwestern, it had College GameDay there and was the biggest game in NU history and when MSU played NU, the Wildcats' two best offensive players were already lost for the year. MSU didn't even play Wisconsin.
See what you've done? You actually have an Auburn grad making arguments for The Ohio State and a rotten Big Ten.
And sweet buckets of national title confetti, we're praying that you're right and we're 100 percent wrong.
WRONG!!! The AAC is an automatic qualifier this year. You are dead wrong on this. Check it out. Don't know where. But it's everywhere. Otherwise, NIU would be in and UCF would be out. Check your facts.
I'm serious. I'm not making this up. The AAC is an automatic qualifier (taking the Big East's old spot) this year. This is the last year, but for this year they are.
I'm going on eye test too with Ohio State-Michigan State. I think Michigan State is better. The fact that Ohio State played four games closer than Michigan State played in the Big Ten does not lend credence to the "Ohio State throttled people and shrugged their shoulders" outlook. Were they shrugging their shoulders against Michigan? Iowa (one score game in fourth quarter)? Wisconsin (one score game in fourth quarter)? Northwestern (one score game until final play)? The question is if OSU is so ticked off about last week that they show up angry and play their best game of the year. If that happens, they win. Any other situation, Michigan State is the better team and wins.
Concur on all fronts.
Difference in AU's and THE Ohio State's schedule:
Bad Pac-10 team: Cal went 1-11; Washington State is 6-6 and will bowl
Arkansas State and Buffalo are likely pushes.
THE Ohio State has nothing approaching a win at Texas A&M when the Aggies were full strength and Auburn's entire argument is in that it slayed the dragon that is Alabama. That's the difference in our view.
Great point about the MSU rising in that scenario. The fatigue is there and real, and the fact that Bama got a rematch and destroyed LSU two years ago works for Bama's argument and against the chance it would happen since that game was gross.
We understand a College of Cardinals, too. As for the College of Sequoias, well, we're going to go out on a limb here and say the entry requirements are tall and the work load is think. You don't leave there without a good education, though, and you can be rooted for the future.
Amen and pass the acorns.
Concur about the SEC fatigue possibly being a monster factor.
For Bama to get another shot at the BCS:
1) Florida State has to lose
2) THE Ohio State has to lose
3) Auburn needs to win
4) Oklahoma State needs to struggle vs. Oklahoma
Then it would be Iron Bowl II — and we think Alabama would win by at least two TDs.
As for Iron Bowl II in the Sugar, well, they better get more FBI guys for the days leading up to the game. Wow.
From friend of the show StuckinKent —
MT- Mizzou jumps Bama with a win over Auburn. Alabama will not go to the championship game without an FSU and OSU loss, and may not even then. I think Oklahoma State may be more appealing as conference champs. I'm not sure though. I think it would be a big debate. That's my opinion anyway. I believe that some computer formulas take into account if you win your conference championship or not. I know my formula does. That means that prior to this week, Alabama is not being hurt by that, but starting next week, when the evaluation is about which team has accomplished the most, Alabama will be hurt by that. They will also be hurt by an Auburn loss. If they couldn't beat Auburn, why could Missouri- particularly if Missouri wins by more than one score?
The number crunching lends a ton of credence to your pick. But the similar canvas that is common opponent is skewed in regard to analytical data.
Michigan State has to strangle its foe and the game to win; Ohio State sprints to big numbers and shrugs its shoulders for the most part at the opposition. And as bad as The Ohio State's schedule was, Michigan State's was worse.
Too much at stake for the Buckeyes; plus the indoor track really helps Miller and Hyde and Co.
You're breakdown is factual and makes good sense. We're using the eye test and playing a gut feeling. We're still on the Buckeyes — and we don't think it's going to be that close.
As for the other pick, UCF needs to win either way tot get into the BCS — the AAC is not an automatic bid league.
If you think The Ohio State is looking past MSU, do you feel the Tigers are looking by Mizzou?
And Mich. State was in the '87 Rose if memory serves.
Yes, you're spot on that Iron Bowl II is a monster long shot because it does not happen without an FSU loss. But as Loyd from Dumb and Dumber says, "So you're saying there's a chance."
Last we heard Tim McClenden was out west at a junior college as well — College of the Sequoias we believe. He also looked the part. Not sure how he progressed academically, but that kid was ready physically to play on Saturday.
We're OK with the Marion County ruling since all the parties involved were sent packing. Hard to punish the kids left standing in the wake.
From friend of the show StuckinKent, part II —
Ohio State and Michigan State had six common opponents (Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana and Illinois). Ohio State gained 529 yards per game in those games. Michigan State gained 419 (not exactly terrible). Take out the Purdue game where OSU was dominant and Michigan State was not good, and OSU averaged 507 yards and Michigan State 444.
Ohio State has allowed 398.8 yards per game to those six. Michigan State allowed 242.7 (and didn't give up 398 in a single one of those games). Taking out Ohio State's two extremes (603 against Michigan and 116 against Purdue) and they allow 418.5 per game.
Ohio State averaged outscoring those six opponents 45.6-24 (a margin of 21.6 points per game). Michigan State averaged outscoring them 30.7-9.5 (21.2 points per game).
Michigan State beat every single Big Ten opponent by double digits. OSU beat Wisconsin by 7, Michigan by 1, and if not for a fluke last second touchdown, would have beaten Northwestern by 4, and even their ten point win over Iowa (not to mention the actual 10 point win over Northwestern) is smaller than any victory Michigan State had against a Big Ten team this year. That's four games Ohio State won by a smaller margin against Big Ten teams than ANY Big Ten game Michigan State played this year.
I guess Ohio State-Michigan State should be considered equals, but I'll take my chances on Michigan State. Yes, Miller and Hyde are something else. But I'll still take Michigan State.
I'm really curious in your thoughts on it all.
From friend of the show StuckinKent, part I
How many points can Michigan State score? More than Michigan did. Let's break down Michigan's offense compared to Michigan State's.
The played five common opponents (Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Notre Dame). In those five games, Michigan averaged 301.2 yards per game (288.6 in regulation). Michigan State averaged 363.0 yards per game. In November, Michigan averaged 293.8 (281.2 in regulation) yards per game (against Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa and Ohio State). Michigan State averaged 385.8 (against Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern and Minnesota). That includes the 603 YARDS that Michigan gained against Ohio State. They still are averaging around 100 yards less per game than Michigan State.
Why will Ohio State be able to stop Michigan State? What makes anyone think that Ohio State will be able to score against Michigan State? I just don't see it. Michigan State beats Ohio State. They are the better team. Maybe I'm wrong. I'll eat crow on Monday on this one more than likely. Probably Ohio State shows up and plays their best game and wins 63-3 after listening to everyone talk about how awful they played against Michigan all week. But I was picking Michigan State last week because I thought they were probably the better team, and Ohio State didn't show me anything to make me re-think my position last week.
I think your UCF-SMU pick may differ greatly depending on the result of tonight's game. If Louisville beats Cincinnati, there is nothing for UCF to play for, and it's a road game. I think they win, but they may not cover a big spread (they have been playing a lot of close games lately, it feels like). If Cincinnati wins and UCF has to win to win the American and get the BCS bowl, I think they come out fired up and dominate SMU. That's one I wish I could hold off on.