5-at-10: NFL trust issues, NFL power poll, Justin Fields in college statements, Rushmore of Pitt movies


              Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) throws a pass in the first half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, Oct. 15, 2017, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) throws a pass in the first half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, Oct. 15, 2017, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

NFL trust factors

OK, the bottom is trying to win. The top is trying not to lose.

We enter the penultimate week of the regular season in the NFL knowing very little.

What do we know? Glad you asked.

We know being healthy is more important than being good right now.

We know that balance - be it run/pass or offense/defense - is paramount and coveted.

We know quarterbacks you can trust come playoff time are invaluable, and right now of the teams who are currently holding a playoff spot, playoff-trustworthy QBs are few and far between.

Check out the standings as of right now (with their QB's trust rating of 1-to-5 in parenthesis):

AFC

1. Kansas City (2, because Mahomes will be making his first postseason trip; could be higher)

2. Houston (Read above and put Watson's name in for Mahomes)

3. New England (5, as in the number of rings Mr. Brady if your nasty has, but the last two weeks it has looked more like a 2)

4. Pittsburgh (4, Big Ben has two titles, yes, but Big Ben would as the 4 seed need to win two road games and Big Ben has been more than a Little Shaky outside the Steel City)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (3, and yes it could be higher because Rivers has been great, but, what postseason pedigree does Phil have to speak of through the years?)

6. Baltimore (1, and while Lamar Jackson is 4-1 as a starter, how many Vegas sharps are salivating at betting on Belichick making Jackson throw in round one in 12 degree Foxboro in January?)

NFC

1. New Orleans (5, Brees has a ring and has weapons and if the path to Atlanta goes through the Big Easy, well, that will be nothing but dome trips for the Saints and the term Big Easy seems like an apt description for New Orleans' playoff push in that case.)

2. Los Angeles (2, Goff has been brutal the last three weeks and Sean McVay best get in the lab and get this fixed.)

3. Chicago (1, Mitchell Trubisky? Yep, he's the 1.)

4. Dallas (2, I'm not as high on Dak Prescott as most. He's an average passer who has completed 66 percent of his passes with an amazingly high screen and check down rate, plus he takes too many sacks - he's been sacked 51 times this year yes 51 - and fumbles too often.)

5. Seattle (4, and that may be a little high for Russell Wilson, who has fewer weapons on the perimeter than in previous years but is blessed with a running game that is committed and competent.)

6. Minnesota (2, sorry Kirk Cousins believers, you have that many toys and a defense that talented and you are only 7-6-1 and fighting for the final spot in a top-heavy NFC, that's on the QB. Period.)

So that's four total QBs with a history of playoff success and a run that gives you reason to feel like you can trust them.

And chief among them is Brady and his amazingly fading Patriots, who looked old and slow, especially on the perimeter - and when did all the partying and bulldozing catch-up with Gronk? - in the last two weeks.

Yes, the reports of the Patriots demise are greatly overblown. They always are, be them in September or December, but these numbers do not look promising.

photo Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17), left, celebrates with teammates after a successful defensive play near the end of the second half of an NFL football game against Tennessee Titans at Wembley stadium in London, Sunday, Oct. 21, 2018. Los Angeles Chargers won the match 20-19. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

NFL Power poll

New Orleans (12-2). OK, in the amazing realm of the known/unknown is the conversation quagmire of Cam Newton. Forget the postgame stuff. Throw out the physical gifts. Dude has missed throws - meaningful from must-have throws - that I'm pretty sure I could make. And the clock management issues or the inability to read and recognize pressures. Yes, this is about the Saints and their balance and excellence, but we know that, and the more interesting chats are about the unknown, right? What is Cam Newton's legacy? Because man, even as a Newton fan and occasional Cam-apologist, he is looking more and more like the best physical specimen to ever play quarterback who with each passing year has not progressed in learning how to play quarterback.

Kansas City (11-3). Yes, the Chargers grabbed a monster win last Thursday and have the same record. But the Chiefs have the easier route to the No. 1 seed and that has to count for something right? We also know that the least trustworthy of these 'elite' teams in truth likely is the Chiefs with Andy Reid, who is 194-123-1 (61.2 percent) in the regular season and 11-13 with one Super Bowl appearance in 13 postseason trips, and Patty Mahomes, who will be making his first postseason trip.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-3). You can make this a 2B if you like, and in some ways the Chargers are the second-most-trustworthy team in the league behind the Saints right now. Winning in K.C. - without Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen for more than half the game - was impressive. Hard not to want Philip Rivers to have a postseason moment in the sun, you know.

Chicago (10-4). Yep, the Bears jumped the Rams and the Pats. In fact, the Bears defense may be the most known quantity in the NFL. Possibly the second-most known fact in the NFL is the phrase "Defense travels" is lazy analysis and a cliche all-timer than makes my ears bleed. Side stat: Khalil Mack has 12.5 sacks, including the Mack Back Sack against Aaron Rodgers; Mack's former team, the Raiders. have 11 sacks total. (Psst and defense travels.)

Los Angeles (11-3). Yes, you are what your record says you are, but I know this: 1-7 - Jared Goff's TD-to-Int ratio over the last three games - is a more telling number than 11-3 right now. And if Todd Gurley's not 100 percent - remember from above, we know being great is not as important as being healthy this time of year - well that vaunted Rams offense is nowhere near as impressive.

photo Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (97) prepares to cause a fumble against Arizona Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen (3) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 16, 2018, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)

Powerless

Detroit (5-9). Man, we talk all the time about situation and placement. It also makes you wonder how thankful Eli is for Archie taking the hard stance on draft day against San Diego. (Yes, Philip Rivers has had a very similar career in the place that wanted Manning in 2004 but got Rivers. That's a talk for another time.) Here's the career-changing point of locale being a monster piece of the puzzle. Is Matt Stafford a better or worse quarterback than Eli Manning, who has two Super Bowls and is headed to the Hall because he played with two teams that got hot at the right time, had amazing pass rushers who got to Brady without blitzing and David Tyree made a miracle catch? But who is a better quarterback, Stafford or Eli? Makes you wonder right? Bet it makes Matt Stafford wonder too.

New York Jets (4-10). Another team with a rookie QB, but unlike Josh Allen in Arizona, Jets QB1 Sam Darnold has no pieces around him. Job Numero Uno por Chorros de la ciudad de Nueva York is to find Young Slingin' Sammy D some weapons. Like pronto muchachos.

San Francisco (4-10). We know that Nick Mullens' future will be interesting to follow. Dude has been better than most people realize - he's 3-3 as a starter for the 4-10 49ers - and is exceedingly cheap for a back-up QB you trust. He is signed through 2019 and has a cap hit of $570,000 next season. So, in the same general approach of how Hank and Tommy Aaron are MLB's all-time leaders in homers for brothers - Hank had 755; Tommy had 13 and the 768 is followed by the DiMaggios' 573 - the 49ers will have a QB cap hit for Mullen and Jimmy GQ of 20,570,000. Bargains.

Jacksonville (4-10). Stop all this talk about how good the Jags defense is. Stop it now. You can say how talented the Jags defense is but how good? No thanks. Good and potentially great NFL defenses do not lose games to Josh Allen, twice to Marcus Mariota and ever to someone named Josh Johnson, who led the Redskins to a W Sunday. This bunch has quit. Period. (And considering the rise up the draft board, maybe that's not the worse thing ever.)

Oakland (3-11). In the world of NFL unknowns, what Jon Gruden will address with his three first-rounders next spring is up there. Of course there was chatter about whether Gruden the QB whisperer was going to move on from Derek Carr, but since the first week of October, Carr has a QB rating of 100.1 and has not thrown an interception in those nine games. That's 294 throws without a pick friends. Carr making a case to stay in the silver and black.

Arizona (3-11). If you are the Cardinals, you have issues. Duh. You are the Cardinals. But with each passing week you have to wonder if you have the worst of the five first-round rookie QBs. Josh Rosen, who Arizona traded up to draft the former UCLA gunslinger. Rosen has completed less than 56 percent of his throws - and remember he has an all-timer in Larry Fitzgerald on the perimeter - and has 14 picks to 10 TDs. And there's no worse holding pattern in the NFL than wondering if your first-round QB pick is actually a franchise QB.

College football statement time

The bowl games are important. Statement, and even the side games. Look at someone like Gus Malzahn. Last year's bowl loss to UCF started a dreadfully disappointing 2018 on almost all fronts. Look at the momentum possible. Look at the chance to see different things and players. I believe this are important for coaches - and the coaches who allow their teams to consistently underperform or show up unmotivated, well, that's telling too. (Yes, sometimes it's unavoidable - think Alabama in the Sugar vs. Utah or maybe even Georgia in this year's Sugar or even Auburn last year - but if it happens over and over again, then that's on a coach being unable to motivate his team. Yes Gus, we're looking at you.)

Speaking of Georgia, Justin Fields is 100 percent on the move. Overstatement. Yes, the reports and stories of Fields exploring transfer options have been widely circulated. And the social media video from Atlanta TV sports dude Zach Klein of Fields being clearly frustrated at his lack of use in the South Carolina game is quite telling.

Georgia fans should be upset at Fields if he leaves. Overstatement. Gross overstatement. Why we insist on putting higher expectations on the teenagers not getting paid rather than the adults making millions is baffling to me. Seriously. Are Georgia fans mad at Mel Tucker for making a career decision and taking the Colorado job? Were Georgia fans demanding the same type of pledge and loyalty to Mark Richt, who only averaged 10 wins per in Athens, before replacing him with bigger and better in Kirby Smart? When schollies are not renewed or players are recruited over, there's very little outrage from the fan base. But amid this completely hollow and faux sense of loyalty in this sport, Fields - or Jalen Hurts or whomever - should be willing to sit and wait his turn at good ol' State U. even if it costs him a chance to to showcase his skills and potential cost him millions? Sure.

This list has it right. Overstatement. This Money Wise ranking of the worst stadiums in college football has Vandy was worst. No way. (Side note: It's a slide show, so there's that.)

This and that

- Speaking of the NFL and the Patriots in particular, in a turnaround year of TV numbers, Sunday's Pats-Steelers game was the most-watched of the year. From that story: "The 16.5 overnight is the highest of the NFL season, surpassing the previous mark of 16.0 set by the same window a week earlier (mostly Eagles-Cowboys). The (Sunday) national window has now delivered a season-high in three straight weeks."

- OK, one of the few actually funny things Bobby Knight - aka the biggest jack wagon bully sports legend of my lifetime who is a miserable human being - was about my profession. "All of us learn to write in the second grade," he quipped about writers in general and sports writers in particular before adding, "but most of us go on to greater things." Zinger. Well, this little experiment adds technological proof to Knight's mean-spirited (and somewhat accurate) line. Yes, that is the story of a guy who made a bot watch 1,000 hours of Hallmark Channel Christmas movies and then write a script. The overview is staggeringly good, including the line of the widow's husband "died in every war." The widow, who of course has twins, is going to lose her family snow globe shop to a mean business man who bought the land for an "oil refinery," that is "Unless we go on dates." This is worth a quick scan folks. And should make all the Hallmark Christmas movie screen writers a bit nervous. (Or should that be a bot nervous?)

- Sports Business Journal has the most influential sports person of 2018 as the sports gambler. We agree with that and it will continue to shape how we consume, watch and discuss sports.

Today's questions

Shall we start with true or false

True or false the biggest recruits in this cycle - signing runs Wednesday through Friday - will; be Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts.

True or false, fans have a right to be mad at players transferring for a lack of playing time.

True or false, the Saints are the only team in the NFL you trust to win a road playoff game. (If you say false, please provide the others you trust.)

As for today, well, Dec. 18, it's a week before Christmas. Goddy-up. We are mall bound this morning and that means two things. Lots of spending and mall Chinese. Good times in each direction.

"Avatar" - or as we call it Dances with Blue Alien Wolves - was released on this day in 2009. Easily one of the most overrated movies of all time right?

Katie Holmes is celebrating a birthday today. Christian Aguilera is 37 today.
Stalin would have been 140. Ty Cobb would have been 132.

Steven Spielberg is 72.

And Brad Pitt is 55 today.

Wowser he looks great for then double nickel.

Rushmore of Pitt movies. Go.

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