NFL picks
OK, we have a pretty full mailbag - but if you want to offer one, feel free, the more the merrier - so let's break these NFL conference championship games down and offer some picks.
Deal? Deal.
New England minus-8.5 over Jacksonville over 46. Know this: In the last 15 AFC title games the favorite is 10-5 against the spread and the winning team in those games covered the spread. One point for the Pats. We like to grade the two most important match-ups of head coach and quarterback of each two. Two more points for the Pats. (At least.) Home-field matters. Point for the Pats. Considering and comparing each teams weaker side of the ball? Point for the Pats, who after a disastrous start with a new secondary that allowed more than 30 points per game through the first month, have allowed less than 16 per game in the 13 games since. Experience matters, and the young Jags were unfazed by going to Pittsburgh. But how they handle the stage of being a step away from the Super Bowl against an organization that has made been to this stage the last seven straight years will be telling. Point for the Pats.
We will ride with the Pats, but believe there are two ways for the Jags to not only cover the number but go there and win and both of them fall on their defense.
From the great Bill Barnwell, the analytical NFL writer for ESPN.com: When Tom Brady is sacked 0-1 times, he's 75-13 (winning percentage of 85.2). When Brady is sacked 2-3 times, he's 52-17 (75.4). When he is sacked 4-or-times, he's 13-8 (61.9). Now recall the most memorable Patriots setbacks in the playoffs. There was the Super Bowl against the Giants sacked Brady five times top topple the previously unbeaten Patriots. In 2015 in the AFC title game, the Broncos knocked Brady down 17 times. The Giants' strength in both Super Bowl wins was their front four. Terrell Suggs' strip-sack allowed the Ravens to grab a two-touchdown lead in 2009 and the Jets sacked Brady five times in 2010. Heck in the Pats' last two Super Bowl wins, the offense only got going when a) Seattle pass-rusher Cliff Avril was injured and b) when the Falcons' pass-rush as a whole got gassed for being on the field so long.
The Jags must pressure Brady and they must do it with only four. They can of course, and they had 55 sacks during the regular season and harassed Ben Roethlisberg throughout last week's win.
The other thing the defense must do to stay close and give themselves a chance is silence the undersized and speedy wide outs running around the perimeter. Here's a thought that Jacksonville's dynamic corners will press Hogan and Cooks in favorable one-on-ones for the underdogs. That leaves Telvin Smith (6-3) and Myles Jack, a fast and physical linebacker with a lot of Gronk responsibilities. They should have a lot help from safeties deep. (Side note: Putting Jalen Ramsey on Gronk in this view is a mistake, and the Gronk approach should be not unlike the old, "let Jordan get his 30 but no one else gets more than 10," if that makes sense.)
As for the other side of the ball, well, it's pretty to surmise that Bill Belichick will scheme everything possible to limit Leonard Fournette's impact. That's more difficult done than said of course, and who at the beginning of the year would have guessed that Forunette's "I'm ready for this, I played in the SEC" rant would be that accurate? Still it's impossible to see a way that this game does not come down to Blake Bortles having to make five or six big-boy plays, and that seems too daunting for him and most other mortal QBs.
Final: Pats 31, Jags 20.
Philadelphia plus-3.5 over Minnesota and under 39.5. Weather is not expected to be an issue but struggling offenses very well could be. Much has been and will continue to be made of the less-than-Canton-worthy quarterback match-up of Nick Foles and Case Keenum.
And truth be told, the underrated and undersold part of this narrative is that each of these teams is in the NFC title and one step from the Super Bowl with back-up quarterbacks. How many other rosters in this league this side of Jacksonville - which really has played all year with Bortles, who is barely better than a back-up quarterback - are deep enough and flexible enough and dynamic enough to overcome that.
Now know that these rosters did that and more, considering the Vikings also lost dynamic rookie runner Dalvin Cook and the Eagles lost Darren Sproles as well as middle linebacker and defensive signal caller Jordan Hicks.
A lot of the credit on each side should be given to the coaches, who have maximized assets and done a great job of covering mistakes. To that end, we give a slight edge in that category to the Eagles, who got by the Falcons by running at the undersized linebackers and finally finding success with what could have been their third or fourth adjustment in the passing game. Those RPOs allowed Philly to do just enough.
The other edge we give to the homesteading Eagles - and home field will be a big deal Sunday night - is that two of their offensive strengths really neutralize two of the Vikings best defensive stars.
Pass rusher Everson Griffen will see a lot of first-team All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson, who has been as good as any tackle this season.
Secondly, Vikings corner Xavier Rhodes is most likely the best cover corner in the league not-named Jalen Ramsey, but the Eagles' versatility with a slew of receivers, tight ends Zach Ertz and Trey Burton, and a lot of running backs means they can let Rhodes be Rhodes and look somewhere else.
Yes, the Vikings' terrific receiver duo of Theilen and Diggs is a problem for every team. But the Eagles - who have arguably the most complete secondary in the league with corners Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills (and his green hair) and Patrick Robinson as well as do-it all safety Malcolm Jenkins.
In the end, it will come down to these two quarterbacks and while Keenum played more this year and had a better stats day in the Divisional Round, it's impossible to forget the panic play he made that became the floating pick for Marcus Williams that allowed the Saints back in the game. While Foles is never going to be the Tom Emansky choice for QB fundamental videos any time soon, in a game like this - with rosters this talented and deep and this much at stake - it will be the mistakes not the highlights that determine the outcome.
We'll take the home team. Again.
Final: Philadelphia 19, Minnesota 17.
Last week: 2-1-1 against the spread
This season: 37-38-2 against the spread
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Mock necks
Mel Kiper will unveil his first mock draft some time today and it will be plastered all over the four-letter network.
And Kiper's first run - of who knows how many - already starts with a surprise.
Kiper, who is among the first ESPN personalities mentioned who are true-blue experts at their area of expertise, has Cleveland being Cleveland and drafting Josh Allen, the Wyoming quarterback No. 1 overall.
Oy vey. Talk about falling in love with the measurable. And this is important to note: Kiper uses rankings, needs and what he is hearing from NFL folks to craft his mock draft. It's how Kiper thinks the first round will go, not how he would truly rank the players coming into the draft.
With that, and with all do respect to Kiper and his skill set, we'll offer our version. Deal? Deal. We love the draft. You know this.
Kiper's top-five is Allen at 1, Josh Rosen from UCLA to the Giants at 2, defensive end Brandon Chubb to Indy at No. 3, Penn State running back Saquon Barkley to Cleveland at 4, and Sam Darnold to Denver at 5.
Here's the 5-at-10 top-10 1.0, which is not to be confused with the 5-at-10 5.0 (which was the convertible GT Mustang we had in high school; and yes, that car was tough):
1. Cleveland: Sam Darnold, USC. He moves and throws like a star. Yes, ball security is an issue, but his skill set and numbers against better competition is way better than Allen's. (Sorry Mel.)
2. New York Giants: Rosen, UCLA. This makes a very fun scenario about what happens with Eli Manning, who came to the Giants and caddied behind Hall of Famer Kurt Warner for about half of his rookie season. Would Eli be willing to train his replacement.
3. Indianapolis: Chubb, N.C. State. Dude is going to own the combine and the Colts were 31st in the 32-team NFL with 25 sacks last year. Yes, they must draft Frank Gore's replacement - and Barkley would be tempting and splashy here - Chubb offers way more value. Think of it this way: The second or third or fourth running back on the board likely will be there when the Colts pick in round two; if the Colts pass on Chubb, who is a clear front-runner among pass-rushers, the teams that covet guys who pressure quarterbacks means in round two, the Colts would be looking at maybe the 10th (or lower) pass-rusher.
4. Cleveland: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama. We think Fitzpatrick is the best player in the draft and will be a 10-year starter that makes no fewer than eight Pro Bowls. He's that good, and when all-time coaching great, defensive guru and secondary savant Nick Saban raves about any player - especially a defensive player and especially especially a defensive back - the way he raves about Saban. Gang we have been doing this for a few years now, and the last time we were this high on a defensive back - because truthfully, he should go No. 1 - was Jalen Ramsey. How did that turn out? Cleveland was 31st in interceptions as a defense and allowed an NFL-high/worst 102.2 rating to opposing quarterbacks.
5. Denver: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma. Call us crazy if you want, but we think Mayfield is more Russell Wilson than Johnny Manziel. He's more Favre than Weeden, and he's better than every quarterback Denver has put together. Quarterback has to be the pick considering the window of that dynamic defense is closing and it could be Allen or either of the Pac-12 gunslingers if Allen does indeed go first. We may be 100 that we think Josh Allen, the Wyoming QB who the scouts are going to love his measurable, but must question his numbers.
6. New York Jets: Josh Allen, Wyoming. He's the best one on the board, we guess - although we could see them addressing another area of need with say, Roquan Smith, who is the second-best player in this draft, or Barkley and hoping that a Mason Rudolph or Lamar Jackson or Riley Ferguson or will be there high in round two. But we think there will be a pretty large number of QBs picked in this draft and the demand - and the always available late first-round trade - will be one of the biggest story lines considering the number of teams looking for a starter and looking for a back-up plan to an aging starter.
7. Tampa Bay. Saquon Barkley, Penn State. In this setting the Bucs make out like bandits and would likely sprint to the podium. They likely would not ask Doug Martin, who would either fumble the card or run through the wrong hole, or Peyton Barber, who would not get there in time, to run to hand the card to the commish.
8. Chicago. Calvin Ridley, Alabama. The perfect blend between need and best available. There will be a ton of changes to all the mock drafts, but unless someone else desperately needing a wide receiver moves ahead of the Bears, this one will be the most predictable and consistent entry in all the mocks.
9. San Francisco. Joshua Jackson, Iowa. Without a second-rounder, which the 49ers happily and gleefully sent to the Patriots for Jimmy GQ, the 49ers need to ask themselves which position - DB or WR - is deeper and take the best player in either spot. Jackson is big - 6-1, almost 200 pounds with sub-4.5 speed - and give San Fran first-rounders from the last two years at each level defensively.
10. Oakland Raiders: Roquan Smith, Georgia. Kiper has this one too, and this one along with Ridley is a great meeting of need and talent.
Not sure if it's important or not, but in terms of contributing to a football team, here are the five best players in this draft, regardless of position in my view: Fitzpatick, R. Smith, Chubb, Barkley, and Notre Dame offensive lineman Quenton Nelson. The one player that has the most to gain with a strong showing at the combine at Indy may be Derwin James, the FSU safety who could shoot into the top five or fall down draft boards.
So there's that. We love the draft. You know this.
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One more NFL note
OK, we know we have likely spilt enough ink to take you to lunch and maybe beyond.
Sue us.
That said, in a time when almost all the NFL story lines seem negative - ratings down, protests, attitudes, concussions, awful QB matchups, pick one - there is a growing NFL trend that is downright awesome in its awesomeness.
Minnesota fans are donating to Saints punter Thomas Morstead's charity "What you give will grow" foundation.
Morstead tore cartilage in his ribs making a touchdown-saving tackle in the first quarter of last week's Saints' loss at Minnesota. He played through the injury, telling the New Orleans Advocate: "It was painful, it wasn't difficult. It was pretty simple in my mind. This is going to be a really good punt or a really bad punt. Either way, it's going to hurt like hell, so I might as well try and make it as good as I could."
Stud. The impressed Vikings fans followed the recent lead of thankful Bills fans donating to Andy Dalton's charity after the Bengals QB got a late win over the Ravens to get Buffalo in the playoffs. The Bengals fans have recently been donating to Blake Bortles' charity after the Jags QB went to Pittsburgh and helped Jackonville topple the hated Steelers.
Morstead said he is planning to re-route all the donations from Vikings fans to a Minnesota children's hospital, and told reporters that if the donations reach $100,000, he will fly up to Minnesota the week of the Super Bowl to present the check.
As of lunch time on Wednesday, the AP reported that donations had already surpassed $35,000.
That's super cool.
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This and that
- Six ranked college basketball teams - including Auburn and Tennessee - lost to unranked teams Wednesday night. Great atmosphere for Alabama's home win over Auburn, which dug a hole and for the first time in a while went cold from the foul line.
- Side note: And maybe this because we are watching a little more regular-season college hoops than we have in years past, but man the inconsistencies in the officiating are stark and noticeable. One of the ones that really bothers us that is called every, single time: Just because a player dribbling the ball trips does not mean a foul was committed.
- Not sure if you saw this or not, but Shareef O'Neal, the son of Shaq, was not picked as a McDonald's All-American. In support of Shaq's kid - who certainly has had a rough and tumble upbringing for sure - LeBron offered words of condolences and NBA journeyman Matt Barnes said he nor his kids would eat any more Micky D's chicken nuggets. So there's that.
- Last night ESPN confirmed through sources that Allen Greene, 40, will be the next Auburn athletic director. Kind of upset we didn't get at least a courtesy call on that gig. Alas.
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Today's questions
With all the talk of the unrest in Pittsburgh and the potential...
It was 22 years ago when the all-time, storybook romance of Lisa Marie Presley and Michael Jackson officially ended. No one saw that coming.
Daniel Webster would have turned 236 today. We're a fan of Webster's work, but think at times he can get wordy. (Yes, Spy, we know that Noah Webster is the daddy of the dictionary. It's a joke. Side note: Did you know today is national thesaurus day? Interesting. Intriguing. Unique. Quirky. Well, you get the idea.)
A.A. Milne would have turned 136 today. Milne of course wrote Winnie the Pooh. While Winnie's certainly no Caillou - and parents of a certain age all agree that Caillou is the absolute worst; of kids shows he's the exact opposite of MJ and there is no close second - we never were a big fan of all the whining ol' Winnie did.
Kevin Costner is 63 today. We're pretty sure we've done a Costner Rushmore before. Heck, his sports-movie Rushmore may be on the Rushmore of actors with a sports-movie Rushmore. Who has a better quartet than Bull Durham, Field of Dreams, For Love of the Game and the completely unrealistic but totally rewatchable Draft Day? (Hey, we love the draft (day). You now know this.)
We'll go there. Rushmore of sports movies actors with the best Rushmore (at least four) of sports movies? Go. (And yes, we're still looking for quality mailbag entries.)