Fab 4 picks
Auburn-Ole Miss over 62.5. Yes, trying to peg what Auburn will do is like trying to juggle water. Good luck with that. Couple of things that jump off the page. Auburn plays press coverage with attempts of getting pressure. When they get to the quarterback, great. When they don't, well, buckle up. Tennessee had eight 20-plus-yard completions. Ole Miss is better - much better - in the vertical game than Tennessee. That said, the sluggish and awful Auburn offense simply has to wake up in Oxford. (If not, then Jarrett Stidham has to be walked gently to the clipboard cabinet and swap his helmet for a ball cap.) Has to. Ole Miss is 5-2 but has exhausted its nonconference cupcake allotment. Against Power-Five foes, Ole Miss has allowed 27, 62, 45 and 33 points. (That's almost 42 points per for you math-challenged folks.)
Alabama-Tennessee over 57. In some ways, the familiarity Jeremy Pruitt had with the systems in Georgia and Auburn is a sneaky big part of the Vols' efforts that scared the Dawgs and toppled the Tigers. Well, if there's a system Pruitt is even more familiar with, it comes to Knoxville on Saturday. Pruitt is going to know almost every wrinkle or soft spot (if there is one), especially on the Alabama defense. As for the Alabama offense, well, as long as Tua makes it to Chattanooga and heads up 75 with the intent of playing, well, this Tide offense is overwhelming. Again, and we have asked this quite frequently when rolling with the Tide on the total, how many points would it take for you to bet against the over when Tua is involved? We're not sure of that answer, but we are sure
Utah State minus-14 over Wyoming. We're going to buy the half here to be safe - and get on this one quickly friends because it started at 14.5 dipped this morning to 14 and here's betting it will move north closer to kickoff. First, there is an overwhelming colliding ATS trend here: USU is 6-0 against the spread; Wyoming is 1-7 against the spread. Also, and we will make more of this next week, but Wyoming is playing for the eighth consecutive weekend against a Utah State team that had a bye three weeks ago and two blowouts since to pace themselves and be as healthy as possible. Beyond health - Utah State has only three players list don the injury report and one of them is a back-up punter - another reason for the Aggies success is experience. Utah State starts four seniors and a junior on the offensive line, a redshirt senior and two redshirt juniors on the defensive front and has only one starter who is not in his third year of college football.
Houston -11.5 over Navy. We normally love Navy, in almost all settings. We will return to that love sooner rather than later. The Middies best quarterback is playing wide receiver. They have struggled. Now, and this is a very important key for trial option teams. Navy - like Tech and Army and any of the other bone/flex/Wing T teams - keys everything off the A back between the center and guard. Sitting right there for Houston will be Ed Oliver, who is a monster and really unblockable for Navy's interior. Houston is a sneaky 5-1 and, as great as Oliver has been - and dude has been so good at D-Tackle that he may get a Heisman invite - the Cougs offense has delivered at least 41 points in each of their six games as each game has been decided by 15 points or more. Houston has allowed 116 rushing yards per game and less than 3.0 yards per carry. As for Houston's one loss, well, it came against the Air Raid that has been Texas Tech, which threw for 605 yards and five TDs in that game. In case you're curious, Navy has thrown for 370 yards and two TDs all season.
Nebraska minus-3 over Minnesota and over the 56. I believe in Scott Frost. Seriously. Can't help it. We do. We also think the freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez, who missed some time early because if injuries but is getting better every week. Minnesota started 3-0 this season, then Big Ten play started and the Gophers have dropped three in a row, allowing 40 points per in losses at Maryland, vs. Iowa and at THE Ohio State. This one will give Johnny Cornhuskers Fans everywhere a reason to smile, even if it may be about six weeks later than most expected. (Buy the half just to make sure.)
LATE ADDITION: UK minus-11 vs. Vanderbilt. OK, we were almost through with the 5-at-10, and then we did the final of the four items of interest this weekend. We really like Derek Mason and think he has overachieved at Vandy. Truly, considering the dumpster fire that James Franklin left when he high-tailed it to Happy Valley. But let's review the scenes and the settings for the Commodores this weekend. Vanderbilt is about to play its eight consecutive game; UK was off last week. Vanderbilt is 0-4 against the number and 1-3 overall since that heart-breaking, soul-crushing loss at Notre Dame; UK is 3-0-1 against the number in SEC games. Vanderbilt is 95th in the country, allowing 183.3 rushing yards per game; UK has Bennie Snell. Did we mention that Vandy is exhausted and UK - at home - had last week off. When the scroll rolls by "UK 41, Vandy 6" remember who loves you baby.
Last week: 4-3 against the spread (57.1 percent)
This season: 27-19-1 against the spread (58.7 percent)
College football items of interest
NC State is unbeaten, one of eight teams in the FBS that can make that claim. NC State has the best quarterback in college football that the public does not know, but NFL scouts do. Clemson has a loaded defense that has suffocated run-first teams. Sneaky gambling tidbit of the day: Since 1994 an unbeaten team with at least 5 wins has gone on the road as more than a 14-point underdog eight times. Those teams are 0-8 against the spread, losing all of those games by more than the number. NC State is 6-0 and is catching 17 from Clemson on Saturday. Just something to ponder. That said, State and quarterback Ryan Findley have a monster stage before them and what could be an even better springboard. Consider what could be for the Wolfpack: N.C. State is 5-0 and ranked 16 in the country; an upset at Clemson, which is favored by 17.5, would springboard NCSU at least eight spots; the Pack's remaining games after Saturday at Syracuse, vs. FSU, vs. Wake, at Louisville, at UNC and vs. ECU. Those six opponents are a combine 15-22. Also of note, the ECU game is a rescheduled date from earlier September that was moved to Dec. 1, which also happens to be the Saturday of the ACC title game. If NC State wins Saturday, they would have a one-game lead and the tiebreaker over Clemson in the ACC Atlantic.
Where will the upsets happen. Last week there were seven ranked teams playing at unranked teams. Of those seven, three lost outright, two won by a single point, Texas A&M won at Columbia by a field goal, and Florida rallied big time for a 10-point win in Nashville. As This weekend there are six ranked teams playing at unranked foes. Of that group, which includes No. 9 Oklahoma at TCU, No. 19 Penn State at Indiana and the top-ranked Tide at Tennessee, here's the sneaky one we'd pick for a best bet upset. Look out for Temple and a better-than advertised defense against unbeaten and No. 20 Cincinnati. Want another one that will be closer than most may expect? How about second-ranked THE Ohio State at Purdue, which has won three straight and leads the Big Ten in chunk passing plays (completions of 20-or-more yards).
Jimmy Harbaugh, whatcha got? The knock on Harbaugh has been his showing against Michigan's big rivals. Ol' Coach Khaki is 1-5 against Michigan State and THE Ohio State. Ol' Coach Khaki has done an amazing job of circling the Wolverines wagons after the season-opening loss to Notre Dame. And while we are here, there's something to be said for coaches who can handle the rough times and recalibrate a team that was teetering on unraveling. Kudos. But those who knock Coach Khaki will continue to point toward this rival games as a major gauge for his success in Ann Arbor. Saturday offers another chance as Michigan goes to MSU. Here's a hunch that Harbaugh handles this one with flying colors - Khaki included.
The JP all-timer with stakes on the line. Remember the old Jefferson Pilot game with all the Daves announcing, the terrible and grainy graphic that looked straight from Tecmo Bowl, the world's worst updated scoreboard (which always showed a first quarter score of "Tennessee 7, South Carolina 0; 1st Quarter" even though barring a terrible rain delay that game had to be in the fourth quarter) and the 100-percent viewing rate of every SEC frat boy with Co-Cola in hand before heading to the tailgate. Good times. Strike that. Best of times. Well, all of those were beloved staples. You know what else was: The presence of UK or Vandy in almost every JP broadcast through the season. Well, the Cats and the Commodores go at it this weekend in the Commonwealth and the stakes are higher than many expected two months ago. UK is 5-1 and coming off a bye after its first loss of the season. UK has a very favorable schedule in front of it. A 10-win season is possible, a nine-win season and a fun-filled trip to a Florida bowl seems to be the new expectation. Well, here comes Vandy, which is playing its eighth straight weekend after an emotional loss to Florida. (And remember UK was off last week hmmmmmm, this game may be playable friends at UK minus-11.) Candy has three wins, to get to six, it will need to upset someone. Could it be this weekend? Oh, if only the Daves could get the JP band back together to call the action. (That said, with as bad as Auburn has been, the JP game this week would be Auburn at Ole Miss. Let's go down to the field and talk to Dave)
Baseball
OK, that was fun.
Fun for Dodgers fans, who watched L.A. adjusts approach at the plate and watched Clayton Kershaw look every bit the part of being a legit 1A ace.
Fun for second-guessers who will have a slew of things to debate. Milwaukee pitched Wade Miley for exactly one hitter. He was the opening pitcher rather than the traditional starting pitcher. Miley is a lefty, and the Brewers put him out there so the Dodgers would load its line-up with right-handed hitters. The Brewers then, after Miley walked Cody Bellinger, turned to right-hander Brandon Woodruff. As Pepper would say, "It's a bold strategy Cotton Let's see if it pays off for them."
Fun for those who are a believer in The Opener rather than the Starter. Side note: Wade Miley will be the first pitcher in 88 years to start back-to-back playoff games for a team in the same postseason. Of course we all knew that the last one to do it was Ol' George Earnshaw of the Philadelphia A's, who topped the Cardinals in the 1930 World Series. (According to StatsbyStats, Earnshaw was aces in the extra work. He started three games in the A's 4-2 series win, going 2-0 with a no-decision in a Game 5 in which he pitched seven scoreless innings. In the series, George allowed two earned runs and 13 hits over 25 World Series innings and posted a 0.72 ERA.
Fun for the folks who like to bemoan umps and replays. Houston was the epicenter of the controversy in the bottom of the first. Jose Altuve hit a ball into the right-field stands. Mookie Betts jumped and put his glove into the fans. The ball hit Betts' glove - which was closed before the ball got there anyway - and it came back into the field. Right field ump Joe West called fan interference and ruled Altuve out. The replay guys in New York said the call stands, which means they did not have enough to overturn it. (Whether that was enough evidence or enough gumption, you can decide.) It was a tough call for sure, and it was made even tougher by a security guard blocking the best camera angle for a conclusion replay.
Fun for folks who love classic finishes. Game 4 - a critical one for the Astros - in the ALCS was awesome. Boston won 8-6 after taking a quick 2-0 lead that became a 3-3 tie after three. Boston led 4-3, before Boston tied it after 4.5 innings. Houston reclaimed the lead at 5-4 after 5. Boston reclaimed the lead at 6-5 in the top of six and expanded it to 7-5 after the top of the seventh and 8-5 after the top of the eighth. Houston scored once in the bottom of the eighth and loaded the bases in the bottom of the ninth. Alex Bregman's sinking, two-out line drive to left was gobbled up by an amazing, diving grab by Andrew Benintendi. If he does not make that grab, the ball gets by and Houston wins Game 4 and the series is 2-2. But he did and Boston is one game from returning to the World Series.
Good times people.
This and that
- Here's your weekly Falcons update: Vic Beasley has been on the field for 304 snaps through six games; that's more than 50 snaps per game. The result: He has 4 tackles and 1 sack. Against Pittsburgh and Tampa the last two weeks, Beasley has been on the field for 86 defensive plays and has zero tackles and zero assists and zero sacks. That's stealing money friends.
- There were some interesting story lines on Night 2 of the NBA season. (Yes, we know, there's seven months of NBA to discuss, but play along.) Anthony Davis was amazing (32/16/8) as the Pelicans handed the Rockets a 16-point loss. (That loss was worse than any setback Houston suffered during last year's 65-win season.) Carmelo Anthony came off the bench for the first time in his NBA career. Kawhi Leonard played like an A-level superstar in his Toronto debut and DeMar DeRozan did the same in his San Antonio debut. LeBron's Lakers debut is tonight. We're in for that.
- NFL returns tonight. Denver-Arizona. May we suggest that you bake some sweet cookies with your football widow and skip this one.
- All four North American major professional sports are in action today. So there's that. Well, that is if you count Broncos-Cardinals as professional rather than semi-pro.
Today's question
On this day 41 years ago, Reggie Jackson cemented his rep as Mr. October with three homers on three consecutive World Series swings.
Joni Cunningham from Happy Days is 58 today.
Frank Beamer is 72 today. Mike Ditka is 79 today. Keith Jackson would have been 90 today
Capone was convicted of tax evasion on this day in 1931.
Mary Ann from Gilligan's Island is 80 today. So in honor of the great Dawn Wells, what makes the Rushmore of the all-time pop culture debates, because Ginger or Mary Ann may be far left. Go and remember the mailbag.
