With businesses disrupted, fuel and chemical refineries out of commission and consumers struggling to restore their lives, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma likely will pack a tough double-whammy for the U.S. economy.
Nearly one-fifth of the nation's oil refining capacity has been shut down because of Harvey, and fuel production has dropped sharply as a result, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Consumers also will spend less in the immediate aftermath of the storms. Even those ready to make purchases will face closed storefronts and dark restaurants.
Irma will cause tourists to delay - and in many cases never take - trips to Florida's beaches or Disney World. Chemical refineries also have been closed, reducing the production of plastics.
Damage estimates from the two storms are still early, particularly for Irma. Hurricane Harvey likely will cost up to $108 billion, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which would make it the second-most-expensive hurricane after Katrina.
Hurricane Irma stories
- Sewage spills add to misery in hurricane-battered Florida [photos]
- Georgia Gov. Deal: State will pay local share for Irma cleanup on coast [photos]
- Hart: Irma's hype was worse than her bite
- Southern Adventist University students to hold event for Hurricane Irma victims
- Life and death of Irma: Two weeks of fury and devastation end
- Irma's fury in the Keys: So loud 'it hurt your eardrums'
- Power outages continue to drop in Georgia after Irma storm
- Trump picks Naples for post-Irma Florida visit
- Eight die at Florida nursing home in Irma's sweltering aftermath
- Irma's life and demise: 2 weeks of destruction and fear
- Powerful Irma slams Chattanooga area; region escapes much of expected damage [photos]
- EPB continues effort to restore electricity to area customers after storm [photos]
- Irma spawns unusual storm surges on both Florida coasts [photos]
- Governor: 'Work to do' for Florida to recover after Irma
- Back-to-back storms in Georgia mean doing repairs all over again
- As Irma evacuees head back south, cleanup is on their minds
- Stevie Wonder opens hurricane relief benefit with 'Lean on Me'
- What's happening: Irma's trail: death, floods and misery
- Couple's home an island after Irma: 'We lost everything'
- Harvey and Irma to slow U.S. economy but rebound should follow
- FEMA estimates 25 percent of Florida Keys homes are gone
- What's happening: Irma's trail: death, floods and misery
- Trump to visit Florida on Thursday
- Irma causes fourth South Carolina death
- 'Wagon Wheel' points Irma evacuees to Tennessee city
- Generator leads to Irma's third South Carolina death
- Irma kills 2 in Georgia and 2 in South Carolina
- 12 Chattanooga-area lineworkers headed to Irma-ravaged Florida and Georgia
- Aquarium hosts animals evacuated from Georgia [video]
- Cuba's decrepit buildings no match for Hurricane Irma [photos, interactive tracker]
- Refugees, triathletes find shelter in Chattanooga as Irma rolls through Southeast
- Irma whips Southeast: 3 dead in Georgia, 1 in South Carolina [photos, interactive tracker]
- Atlanta airport cancels 800 flights Monday due to Irma
- UPDATE: TEMA status raised to Level 3- State of Emergency as Irma moves through Tennessee
- Nearly two dozen flights canceled at Chattanooga Airport
- UPDATE: Many schools in Chattanooga region closed or on 2-hour delay today
- Weakened Irma lashes Tampa Bay region; full impact unknown [photos, interactive tracker]
- Two stranded manatees helped after Irma sucks water from bay
- Remnants of Hurricane Irma bringing wind, rain to Chattanooga area [interactive tracker]
- What Chattanoogans can do to prepare for Irma's potential impact [interactive tracker]
- UPDATE: Hurricane Irma gives Florida a coast-to-coast pummeling [photos, interactive tracker]
- 2 manatees stranded as Irma sucks water from Sarasota Bay
- Red Cross and partners open shelters in Chattanooga, three other Tennessee cities for Irma evacuees
- Georgia schools, businesses close after Gov. Deal declares state of emergency
- Irma prompts first ever tropical storm warning for Atlanta
- Hurricane Irma knocks Miami Marlins' radio broadcast off air
- Haslam orders health aid for Irma victims
- How Hurricane Irma became the second-strongest Atlantic hurricane on record; a question and answer
- They've been warned: Some insist on riding out Irma at home
- This is your last chance': Irma puts a bull's-eye on Tampa
- Is Hurricane Irma the 'Big One' Florida has dreaded?
- Rush Limbaugh evacuates studio ahead of Hurricane Irma
- Florida evacuees crowd highways in Atlanta
- Irma gains strength, targets Florida after raking Caribbean
- Beyond Florida, Irma an unpredictable threat to Southeast
- Hurricane Irma likely to be far worse than monster Andrew
Hurricane Harvey
- FEMA insurance chief: Harvey losses could top $11 billion
- Harvey's flooding blamed in major gasoline spill in Texas
- Harvey and Irma to slow U.S. economy but rebound should follow
- U.S. House to vote on $7.9 billion Harvey relief bill
- Immigrants are sought for labor shortage in Harvey recovery
- Shelter dogs displaced by Hurricane Harvey arrive in Chattanooga [photos]
- Mnuchin: Congress must tie Harvey aid to raising debt limit
- Harvey's floodwaters mix a foul brew of sewage, chemicals
- Houston's homeless shrug off riding out Harvey on streets
- As Harvey finally fizzles, a look at what made it so nasty
- 3 tornadoes in Tennessee blamed on Harvey
- Upbeat Trump pitches in at shelter for Harvey victims
- Trump asks for $7.9 billion down payment for Harvey relief
- As floodwaters recede, Houston officials look to recovery [photos, interactives]
- 'Don't touch me. I'm dying.' Harrowing Harvey stories emerge [photos, interactives]
- Local animal shelters open doors for furry flood victims from Texas, Louisiana
- Likely tornado damages homes as Harvey hits Deep South [photos, interactives]
- Gas prices rise after Harvey reduces flow from refineries, pipeline [photos, interactives]
- Forecasters predict sunny Labor Day after Harvey's remnants blow through
- Grim reality in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey: More dead [photos, interactives]
- Harvey horror: Shivering girl, 3, clinging to her drowned mom
- Team made up of local emergency responders heads to Houston
- Texas chemical plant poised to explode amid Harvey flood
- Floodwaters drop across much of Houston; death toll at 20
- Western Louisiana in crosshairs as Harvey moves back to land [photos, interactives]
- Forecast brings hope as new shelters open, death toll rises [photos]
- Trump reassures those in Harvey's path that he will help [photos]
- Here are some ways to help victims of Hurricane Harvey
- Bracing for Harvey's return, worry renews: Is worst to come? [photos, interactives]
- Sohn: What lessons will we learn from Harvey?
- Chattanooga medical teams, volunteers aid Hurricane Harvey relief efforts
- More rain, more deaths: Harvey floods keeps Houston paralyzed
- Harvey slams region's economy, with damages in the billions
- Trump issues emergency declaration for Harvey in Louisiana
- Tennessee organization starts Harvey relief fund
- Desperate Harvey victims turn to social media to get rescued
- $3 billion disaster balance enough for immediate Harvey response
- A Houston family endured Harvey until the house was swamped
- Scientists say Harvey may be the soggy sign of future storms
- Residents in photo of flooded nursing home are 'doing fine'
- Photo of mother and baby's rescue becomes symbol of storm
- Public health dangers loom in Harvey-hit areas
- Officials act to protect downtown Houston from Harvey floods
- Harvey dilemma: Stay as water rises or risk flooded roads?
- Harvey spins deeper inland; full scope of damage is unknown
- Hurricane Harvey closes key oil, gas operations in Texas
- Houston roads start to flood as Harvey stalls
- Expert: Harvey weakened fast, but destruction just beginning
- Fearsome Hurricane Harvey slams into Texas Gulf Coast
- Menacing Harvey knocking on Texas coast as Category 4 storm
- Texas prepares as Harvey strengthens to Category 2 storm [interactive]
- Sandbags, plywood, generators: Texas coast braces for Harvey
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, estimates Irma will cause $64 billion to $92 billion in damage.
While the economic toll pales beside the human costs, analysts estimate the nation's annualized growth rate will be one-half to one full percentage point slower in the July-September quarter than it otherwise would have been.
But repair work, reconstruction and purchases of replacement cars and other goods should provide an offsetting boost later this year and in early 2018.
"Construction activity will rocket in the affected areas," predicted Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Households' spending on building materials, furniture, appliances, and vehicles will all be much higher than otherwise would have been the case."
Catastrophic natural disasters often don't depress the U.S. economy in the long run. The destruction of property reduces the nation's total wealth. But all the rebuilding and restoration work tends to stimulate economic growth in the following months.
The rebuilding can take time. After Hurricane Katrina bashed New Orleans in 2005, it took seven months for home building permits in the city to return to their pre-hurricane levels, according to Goldman Sachs.
Economists at Goldman estimate Harvey and Irma will slice growth in the July-September quarter by 0.8 percentage point to an annual rate of 2 percent. But they forecast a healthy rebound, with annualized economic activity 0.4 percentage point higher in the October-December quarter, 0.2 percentage point higher in the January-March quarter next year, and 0.4 percentage point higher in the April-June period.
Irma so far has wreaked much less damage than initially feared, with Citi analyst James Naklicki estimating total costs could reach $50 billion, down from earlier estimate of as much as $150 billion.
Still, more than 7 million people have lost power because of Irma, with most of them living in Florida. The state makes up about 5 percent of the U.S. economy. Flooding from Irma could affect about $1.2 billion of the state's crops, Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates, and elevate food prices.
With oil refineries along the Gulf Coast shut down, gas prices have jumped about 30 cents a gallon nationwide, on average, since Harvey made landfall in late August. That will temporarily reduce Americans' spending power because they will have less money to spend on other items.
The impact of Harvey has been particularly harsh in Houston, the nation's fourth-largest city. The entire metro area accounts for about 3.2 percent of the nation's economy.
Higher gas costs will likely increase measures of inflation in the coming months, economists say, but the rise will likely be small and temporary.
Housing costs could rise, too. The cost of lumber has already been rising because of the wildfires in the western United States, said John Mothersole, an economist at IHS Markit. Hurricane-related repairs and rebuilding could push prices higher.
Nearly 90 percent of U.S. chemical refinery capacity has been closed down, Mothersole said. That could make all sorts of plastics more expensive, including PVC pipes and other building materials.
The Federal Reserve, which adjusts interest rates to keep inflation in check, will likely discount any increase in prices.
"The Fed is going to view this, correctly, as a transitory event," Mothersole said.
Still, Fed policymakers may have a difficult time analyzing the broader underlying health of the economy because of the hurricane distortions.
For example, the number of jobs added in September could be 20,000 to 100,000 lower because of storm disruptions, Goldman Sachs estimates.