JACKSON, Miss. - Forecasters said Monday that the Mississippi River's crest will come sooner and lower for many locations in Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi. If that prediction holds, it means the unusual winter flood won't rival the inundation of 2011.
"That's good news," said John Elfer, emergency manager in Mississippi's Warren County.
Still, people were evacuating Monday from low-lying neighborhoods in Mississippi's Vicksburg and Tunica County, while Vidalia, Louisiana, built a barricade to hold back waters and government officials predicted a spillway would be opened to protect New Orleans.
Marty Pope, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service's office in Pearl, Mississippi, said that crests are lower because dams held back water in Kentucky and that less water from the Arkansas River will be dumping into the Mississippi as it crests.
Predicted flood crests were cut between 1 and 2 feet for locations as far south as Natchez and projected to occur a day earlier. Predicted crests in south Louisiana remained the same, which means authorities are likely to open the Bonnet Carre spillway channeling floodwaters into Lake Pontchartrain to relieve pressure on levees around New Orleans.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers spokesman Ricky Boyette said levees at New Orleans are designed to hold back 1.25 million cubic feet of water per second, a flow rate that the river is predicted to reach Saturday at the city.
"We don't want more than 1.25 million flowing through the New Orleans area," Boyette said. "That's when you divert."
It's less clear whether the Corps will open the Morganza Spillway, which diverts water from above Baton Rouge, Louisiana, through the Atchafalaya River basin. If so, officials could open the spillway sooner than in the 2011 flood, Boyette said.
In Vidalia, Louisiana, across the river from Natchez, Mayor Hyram Copeland said the city is building a barricade of earth-filled "Hesco" baskets to protect a rehabilitation hospital, a convention center and two hotels that are outside the levee. Copeland was encouraged Monday when the crest forecast at Natchez was cut from 60 feet to 59 feet. That's higher than the river's 2008 flood, but lower than the more severe 2011 flood.
"Hopefully, by the time the 17th comes along, it'll be lower by another foot," Copeland said. If that happened, "we won't need the Hesco baskets."
In Memphis, Tennessee, officials said water was approaching a handful of homes on Mud Island, near Memphis' downtown. A road to a water treatment plant has been closed, but no evacuations have been ordered.
Precautions continued, though.
Mississippi officials closed two wildlife management areas to hunting, and authorities said two state highways are likely to flood. The outflow of the Yazoo River to the Mississippi was closed a week ago to prevent the Mississippi from backing up the smaller river, and Corps spokesman Gary Raimondo said the Yazoo is expected to flood 400,000 acres of forest and farmland.
In north Mississippi's Tunica County, residents of fishing camps at Tunica Cut-Off were removing cars, boats and mobile homes.
Tunica County Emergency Manager Randy Stewart said that with a lowered flood forecast, water is likely to threaten only a handful of homes on the exposed side of the levee. Hundreds of homes in Tunica Cut-Off flooded in 2011, but most were rebuilt on stilts, cutting the risk of a repeat.
Stewart said the county has closed the Tunica Riverpark museum, but doesn't expect that the structure will flood. He said that water may encroach on some parking lots at the Fitz Tunica Casino & Hotel, but the casino is unlikely to close. Bally's Tunica Casino closed Sunday, but reopened Monday with the lower flood forecast. That's good news for the county, which depends on eight casinos to fuel its economy. The 2011 flood caused all Tunica County casinos to close, creating a significant revenue loss.
Residents were also evacuating from the Kings community on the north side of Vicksburg, where officials declared an emergency Monday. The neighborhood flooded heavily in 2011.
Resident Ivera Kelly told WAPT-TV that she's packing up her home for good and moving away from the rising water.
"It's going to get us again, and I don't think I'm going back this time," Kelly said.