NASHVILLE - A new Vanderbilt University poll of 800 registered Tennessee voters released today finds the U.S. Senate race between Republican Congress member Marsha Blackburn and former governor Phil Bredesen a toss up, with Bredesen leading by 1 point.
Forty-four percent of those surveyed in the Oct. 8-13 poll said they support Bredesen in the contest that has attracted national attention, while 43 percent back Blackburn. About 8 percent of voters remain undecided.
Given the survey's 4.9 percent margin of error, either candidate could be ahead at this juncture in the Nov. 6 election, for which early voting began Wednesday across Tennessee's 95 counties.
The Vanderbilt poll is the second poll in as many days showing a statistical dead heat in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Bob Corker of Chattanooga, after two prior surveys showing Blackburn having the lead in the days following the Senate firestorm over the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.
"The bottom line is that Tennessee's Senate race will be determined by which candidate is better able to turn out their base, as well as any national waves that occur - blue or otherwise," said John Geer, Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt professor of political science, who co-directs the Vanderbilt Poll with Josh Clinton, Abby and Jon Winkelried professor of political science.
Early voting continues through Nov. 1.
On another political front, the Vanderbilt survey is the latest poll in the Tennessee governor's race to show Republican Bill Lee, a Franklin County businessman, leading former Nashville mayor Karl Dean in the contest to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Bill Haslam.
Lee is ahead by 11 points, with 48 percent of respondents saying they support the political newcomer, while 37 percent chose Dean.
Pollsters said the percentage of undecideds in the governor's race remains high at 12, suggesting that there could be a lot of movement between the candidates between now and Election Day.
The survey also found President Donald Trump remains popular in Tennessee, with 55 percent approving of his job performance. Trump won the state by 26 points in his 2016 race against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In the Senate race, women prefer Bredesen by a 49-37 percent margin, while men prefer Blackburn by 50-37 percent.
Women, however, vote at a higher rate than men, giving Bredesen his narrow lead in the poll, according to Vanderbilt.
Bredesen, who has pitched himself in the campaign as a moderate pragmatist willing to work with Trump and Republicans when he agrees with them, is also more popular among Republicans than Blackburn is among Democrats.
Thirteen percent of Republicans surveyed said they plan to vote for him. Only 5 percent of Democrats say they prefer Blackburn, a staunch conservative who has firmly aligned herself with Trump on most issues. Independent voters are evenly split, according to the poll.
The end result?
"Our poll results show that this race is still very much a toss-up," Clinton said in Vanderbilt's news release. "Eight percent of voters are still undecided, and depending on who those voters choose, and who turns out to vote, this race could easily go either way."
Meanwhile, neither gubernatorial candidate seems to be attracting many votes from the other party, according to the survey. And independents, who were highly favorable about Dean as Republicans were duking it out for their party's nomination, are now gravitating to Lee by 46 percent to 35 percent.
Women are evenly split on the two candidates. Men prefer Lee over Dean by a 56 percent to 31 percent margin.
"Lee is in control now, but Dean could cut into his lead and make it much closer in the final days, especially if his base turns out," Geer said.
The Vanderbilt Poll is supported by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions at Vanderbilt University.
Contact Andy Sher at asher@timesfreepress.com or 615-255-0550. Follow him on Twitter @AndySher1.