After two weeks of steady decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases reported each day in Hamilton County, the trend is beginning to reverse with the number of new cases rising in the past three days.
The Hamilton County Health Department has reported more than 100 cases every day in the past three days. On Friday, the department reported 109 new cases, bringing the county total to 6,610. The county is now averaging 98 new cases a day in the past week, up from an average of 65 new cases a day just nine days ago.
The seven deaths in the past week put it among the deadliest for the virus in the county since the pandemic began. Those who have died - a white male between 51 and 60 years old, a white male between 71 and 80 years old, a white male older than 81 years old, a white female older than 81 years old, a Black female between 71 and 80 years old, a Black male between 61 and 70 years old and a Black male between 51 and 60 years old - all had underlying health conditions.
However, despite the slight increase in new cases reported, two other data points for measuring the impact of the virus in Hamilton County - hospitalizations and positivity rate - show promising signs.
On Friday, the health department reported 66 people currently hospitalized with the virus and 21 people in the intensive care unit, both down from spikes at the beginning of the month.
Dr. James Sizemore, an infectious disease specialist and medical director of infection prevention at Erlanger Health System, said the hospitalization data showed the effectiveness of the countywide mask mandate. Sizemore answered questions during an Erlanger Board of Trustees meeting this week.
"We're starting to see a similar reflection in the number of individuals we have in the hospital, with upwards of a 40% reduction in hospitalizations compared to where we were 10 to 12 days ago," Sizemore said.
This week, a study from Vanderbilt's School of Medicine and University Medical Center showed how the mask mandates are working in areas with them. The study found that hospitals with patients from areas without mask requirements saw a more than 200% increase in hospitalized COVID-19 patients on average since July 1. Hospitals treating patients from areas of the state with face mask requirements saw their number of coronavirus patients stabilize or decline.
The average positivity rate for countywide testing in the past week - 4.7% - is the lowest it has been in three weeks as the health department is averaging hundreds more tests a day than at the start of the month. The increase in testing is offsetting the increases in new cases.
In the first few days of school, cases have been reported in schools and some school buildings have shut down for cleaning. Hamilton County Schools is currently operating a hybrid of in-person and virtual learning. The school system follows data related to the number of active cases to determine its style of learning.
Sizemore said people who are sick or have symptoms should stay home until they can be tested and get their results. He emphasized the continued use of masks as the most effective way to stop the spread, especially with asymptomatic cases.
"You are going to have people in a business, enterprise or school that are asymptomatically infected," Sizemore said. "And as long as those individuals remain in a mask, their risk of spreading it to other individuals within that situation, whatever it may be, will be low."
Contact Wyatt Massey at wmassey@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6249. Follow him on Twitter @news4mass.