Chuck Fleischmann must've been on Santa's nice list this year. After three bruising GOP primary battles for Tennessee's 3rd District Congressional seat, it looks (for now) like he's going to get a primary breather in 2016.
As Andy Sher reported in the Times Free Press last Sunday, state Sen. Bo Watson has chosen to keep his sights trained on his current office instead of attempting a congressional run. And, if two-time challenger Weston Wamp does, indeed, decide to keep his energies channeled toward his business interests, the list of big GOP names who could compete against the incumbent is very thin.
This isn't to say that Chuck would be completely off the hook. There is such a thing called a general election. Sure, in Southeast Tennessee - one of the darkest red areas in the country - there hasn't been much November congressional drama in a while, but that doesn't mean Democrats should be totally overlooked.
The biggest question for Democrats, though, is who in the world can they run who would stand a chance in this district, which stretches from the Georgia line to the Kentucky border. It's not that Dr. Mary Headrick hasn't been a good candidate the past couple of races. I can't imagine there are that many Democrats out there who don't like her policy platform. She's true blue.
But let's call it like it is. A "good" Democratic candidate isn't good enough in Tennessee's 3rd District. To pull off what would be one of the craziest electoral upsets in America, Democrats would need to field the most awe-inspiring, voter-mobilizing candidate in the history of the region - Obama with a Tennessee twang. Anything short of that, and it looks like Fleischmann will breeze easily back to Washington for a fourth term.
So if you're a 3rd District political junkie looking for a 2016 fix, where do you look?
The presidential election will be impossible to ignore, naturally, but we all know which way Tennessee will go: Republican. It won't matter if the GOP nominee is Rubio, Cruz, Christie or that big-haired fella. Once Super Tuesday (March 1) has passed, Volunteer State voters will be little more than impassioned spectators in the race for the White House.
There will be a state Senate race in the area that maybe, sort of, could possibly be interesting. Todd Gardenhire is up for re-election in Tennessee's 10th state Senate district, which covers large chunks of Hamilton and Bradley counties. Democrats would love to send him packing, primarily for his role in keeping Insure Tennessee from being voted on by the General Assembly. However, as is the case with Fleischmann, Democrats would have to find a compelling get-out-the-vote candidate and be willing to drop a boatload of campaign coin to stand a chance against Gardenhire.
Well, then, unless things change significantly, it looks like between Super Tuesday and November's general election, 3rd District political watchers will need to cast their gaze westward for any captivating entertainment - because there's always a Scott DesJarlais saga.
This go-round, the three-term Republican U.S representative from Tennessee's 4th District is being primaried by 27-year-old Grant Starrett, a well-connected, California-raised attorney who, since moving to Tennessee for law school, has decided he should run for Congress. I'm still trying to figure out a good over/under for how many times the phrase "carpetbagger" will be used on Starrett. Email me your suggestions.
Of course, the pending political hush around here could change quickly with the right campaign announcement, but as of right now, it's looking like 2016 in the 3rd District will be unusually quiet.
Contact David Allen Martin at david allenmartin423@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DMart423.