If Joe Biden isn't careful, Donald Trump might have a new nickname for him: "Shutdown Joe." Or maybe, "Shut Down Joe." Those monikers came to mind after the former vice president's biggest blunder in the campaign thus far.
I'm referring to Biden's comment, in his interview last week with ABC's David Muir, that if scientists advised him to shut down the country again to contain a winter surge of COVID-19 and the flu, "I would shut it down; I would listen to the scientists." It's the sort of remark that surely plays well with voters who already support him. It might even have notional majority support.
But it doesn't help with the voters Biden needs to avoid antagonizing in swing districts.
Few stories bring that reality into sharper focus than Simon Romero's report in Monday's Times on New Mexico's neck-and-neck congressional race between first-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Xochitl Torres Small and Yvette Herrell, her Republican challenger. New Mexico has trended Democratic in recent years, and a June poll had Biden with a comfortable lead in the state.
But Romero reports red-hot anger in the district over the restrictive coronavirus policies of the Democratic governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, that have helped keep case counts low at a painful economic price. There is "open defiance by sheriffs, business owners and many others of Ms. Lujan Grisham's policies." Turnout in the GOP primary surged by more than 40% over 2016, as against a Democratic increase of 5%.
"The strategy of running hard to the right by avowing loyalty to Mr. Trump while blasting Democrats for problems associated with the pandemic," Romero adds, "could be working for Ms. Herrell, who lost the 2018 race by fewer than 4,000 votes."
What's happening in Torres Small's district offers a taste of a powerful current of anxiety and resentment that Trump has positioned himself to exploit, and that - to judge by his shutdown remark - Biden doesn't seem to grasp.
The anxiety is from people hanging on by their fingernails (if they're still hanging on at all) to jobs, businesses, livelihoods and homes on account of a pandemic whose toll in lives and health can be weighed against the costs of fighting it. In the hierarchy of fears, what is COVID-19 to a healthy 35-year-old restaurateur next to the prospect of losing everything except a meager government check?
The resentment goes just as deep among those who feel talked down to by people whose own track record as experts leaves something to be desired. Remember when (on Feb. 29) the surgeon general tweeted, "Seriously people - STOP BUYING MASKS"? Remember when the most urgent national need was for more ventilators - until those fears proved largely unfounded?
None of this is a failure of science per se, or an excuse for reckless personal behavior. It is certainly no justification for Trump's appalling management of the crisis. But it is a failure by people who claim to speak, with unassailable authority, in the name of science. And loose talk of nationwide shutdowns plays into the fears of voters who feel they have been both impoverished and patronized.
Biden and his advisers may suppose they're on a glide path to election against a manifestly flawed and failed incumbent. But they face an opponent who fights best when he's cornered, and who will take the same ruthless political advantage of Biden's line that George W. Bush's campaign did of John Kerry's calamitous classic about the Iraq War, "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it."
The next time Biden is asked about lockdowns, he might cite a line from John F. Kennedy: "Scientists alone can establish the objectives of their research," the 35th president said, "But society, in extending support to science, must take into account its own needs." That's a line to win over a wavering voter.
The New York Times