Whenever news bubbles up about legislative plans the incoming Biden administration is considering, the name Joe Manchin is mentioned.
Manchin, the senior United States senator from West Virginia, is the closest thing to a conservative Democrat in a party that continues to drift left. He refers to himself as a "moderate conservative Democrat," which is a term that offers something for everybody.
He finds himself a subject in news stories because of the unique status of the Senate - 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two independents who vote with Democrats. With a Democratic president, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will be in position to break any 50-50 ties on legislation.
That means Democrats will need Manchin's vote, assuming that all Republicans line up on one side of a piece of legislation and the other 48 Democrats and independents line up on the other side.
But Manchin has a problem. He represents one of the most conservative states in the union, is the only Democrat holding statewide office in West Virginia and won his last re-election with under 50% of the vote. If he desires another term in 2024, he's not going to continue moving left with the rest of his party.
Since Biden's election, news stories that mention the senator have him all over the field - against statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, and open to the idea; angry at two of his fellow senators for opposing the Electoral College vote certification for Biden, and on record that the attempt to impeach President Donald Trump was "ill-advised"; and for and against $2,000 stimulus checks for all Americans.
But most reports have Manchin throwing cold water on some of his party's most desired ideas. He, for instance, has said he would not be the 50th vote for eliminating the Senate filibuster (essentially making legislation able to pass with a simple majority vote). He has said he will not support radical climate mandates because "you cannot eliminate your way to a cleaner environment." And, most recently, he said he was "absolutely not" in favor of the $2,000 checks in the president-elect's recently proposed "American Rescue Plan."
The West Virginia senator feels the same way many of his Republican colleagues do - that any additional stimulus money borrowed and sent in light of downturns from the coronavirus should be targeted. They correctly point out that many people who might have been temporarily laid off have been working for months, and that many never were laid off in the first place.
Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell called the checks "socialism for rich people."
The problem is, there's a whole lot of that in Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion "American Rescue Plan."
The worst is that it would more than double the minimum wage to $15 an hour, which would be the opposite of a rescue for the economy. It would cause many small businesses to close their doors because they would be unable to pay their employees the new wage.
A 2019 Congressional Budget Office estimate is that a $15 minimum wage would kill from 1.3 million to 3.7 million jobs. Since many businesses are already struggling from the coronavirus, the number today might be much higher.
But if you don't have a job, or aren't interested in one, the proposal has your back.
In addition to $1,400 checks to accompany the $600 checks that just arrived in Americans' bank accounts, it would add $100 to provide $400 a week in unemployment benefits and keep paying for another six months beyond the current March deadline. It both extends the current 15% increase in SNAP (food stamps) benefits and subsidizes COBRA health insurance through September, as well as offers more tax credits to cover the cost of child care. And those are just the start.
Goldman Sacs analysts said the plan went further than they expected on individual stimulus payments, unemployment benefits, state fiscal aid and public health funding. The managing director of a small, Chicago-based hedge fund even told CNBC the spending could lead to a 1929-like stock market crash.
At that time, said David Neuhauser, the S&P 500 [market index of publicly traded companies] fell 86% in less than three years and did not pass its previous peak until 1954.
Which brings us back to Manchin. Most senators in both parties understand that some relief - for the already needy and small businesses, for instance - will be needed by some Americans to see them through to the end of the pandemic. But they can't stomach borrowing more money that the country doesn't have to give it to people who don't need it.
The West Virginia senator, who prides himself on his bipartisanship, can be a key player in crafting a package that helps those who need it and not those who don't. We hope over time he brings sanity to this and other outlandish proposals the new administration is liable to make.