Sohn: The best chance we have to save the one planet we've got

Women wear masks as they walk along a street on a polluted day in Beijing, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2015. China's push for a global climate pact is partly because of its own increasingly pressing need to solve serious environmental problems, observers said Sunday. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
Women wear masks as they walk along a street on a polluted day in Beijing, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2015. China's push for a global climate pact is partly because of its own increasingly pressing need to solve serious environmental problems, observers said Sunday. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

Saturday, Dec. 12, 2015, will be an important date for generations to come.

It was the date that, for the first time, representatives of 195 nations reached a landmark accord committing nearly every country on earth to lowering planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions to stave off the most drastic effects of climate change.

It was historic. And with good reason: There is no plan B, and we're already dreadfully behind.

The new deal, by itself, won't stop global warming. At best, scientists say, it will cut global greenhouse gas emissions by about half enough of what is necessary to stave off an increase in atmospheric temperatures of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit - the point studies indicate the world will be locked into rising sea levels, severe droughts and flooding, widespread food and water shortages and more extreme and destructive storms.

But the hope is that the deal reached in Paris might represent the moment at which, because of a shift in global economic policy, the inexorable rise in planet-warming carbon emissions that began during the Industrial Revolution might start to level out and eventually decline.

Past pacts or attempted deals required developed economies like the United States to take action to lower greenhouse gas emissions, but they exempted developing countries like China and India. That was the excuse used by many of our leaders for failure to take additional action in the U.S.

This agreement changed that dynamic by seeking a pre-committed action in some form from every country, rich or poor. The countries then signed those commitments into agreed-on requirements.

"This agreement sends a powerful signal that the world is fully committed to a low-carbon future," President Barack Obama said Saturday night after the deal was finalized. "We've shown that the world has both the will and the ability to take on this challenge."

Let's hope so. Scientists and leaders have said the talks, which took place in Paris over recent weeks, represented the world's last, best hope.

Some don't think the pact is enough. Respected environmentalist Bill McKibben said it "feels, in a lot of ways, like an ambitious agreement designed for about 1995, when the first conference of parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change took place in Berlin."

But at least it is finally a pact. Michael Levi, an expert on energy and climate change policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, told The New York Times: "The world finally has a framework for cooperating on climate change that's suited to the task. Whether or not this becomes a true turning point for the world, though, depends critically on how seriously countries follow through."

Success will depend on global peer pressure and the actions of future governments, but both the pact signers and the dubious McKibben are right.

At best, this is a first step toward fixing the problem. Ice sheets already are dripping, coastlines are flooding from rising seas, and some types of extreme weather are growing worse. Yet if carried out, the present pact will lessen the possibility of a collapse of one of the ice sheets, which would cause a rise in the sea of 20 feet or more.

At the very least, by requiring regular reviews the deal lays a foundation for stronger future action.

Are there winners and losers? Probably. It could boost the economy in technology economies like the United States and Japan as they develop solutions for the generation and distribution of renewable energy because the agreement has potential to unleash investment and innovation in clean energy at a scale we've never see before. Analysts say it could create economic stars out of relatively poor countries with an abundance of sun and wind for renewable energy. And it could shave power from major oil producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia, already weakened by the slide in the price of oil.

And then there's the continuing rancor in our Congress, where the Republican majority includes many climate deniers who refuse to believe the extent of human-caused climate change and claim the deal favors environmental ideology over what they see as economic reality. But Congress, despite its recent embarrassing votes disparaging the pact, can do little to stop the deal. The pact is not considered a treaty under United States law. Congress would, however, need to sign off on any new money to help other countries adapt to climate change - an important aspect of American commitment.

But here's a parting thought.

This year - 2015 - is going to be the hottest year in global recorded history. And the record set before was last year's. All 10 of the hottest years in a global record stretching to 1880 have occurred since 1998.

That means no one under 30 has ever lived through a month of global temperatures below the 20th-century average - the average temperatures of just the last 15 years.

We cannot be complacent.

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