Barnes cruising, Oxendine and Handel headed toward run-off

By Aaron Gould Sheinin and James Salzer

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

PDF: Mason-Dixon poll

ATLANTA - Roy Barnes is skating toward November, but John Oxendine and Karen Handel appear headed to an August showdown in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, according to a new statewide poll conducted for the Georgia Newspaper Partnership.

The poll, released Wednesday, shows the Georgia electorate to be in a wrathful mood, with concerns over government spending and the economy driving a wider worry over the future of the country. Voters will get their chance to express that mood in Tuesday's Republican and Democratic primaries.

Barnes, the former governor seeking a return to the office he lost in 2002, is pulling away from Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the race for the Democratic nomination, the poll found. Barnes gets 54 percent of the total vote to 20 percent for Baker. No other Democratic candidate is out of single digits. Barnes gets a majority of voters of either gender regardless of age and gets a plurality - 47 percent - of African-American voters.

The real race, then, is on the Republican side.

With 31 percent, Oxendine, the state insurance commissioner, holds a a 12-point lead over Handel, the former secretary of state. Former U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal, however, is within striking distance of earning a spot in the Aug. 10 runoff. The poll found Deal with 18 percent.

Former state Sen. Eric Johnson, of Savannah, is a distant fourth, with 6 percent.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and 12 other Georgia newspapers, including the Chattanooga Times Free Press, which circulates in North Georgia, commissioned the poll. It was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research from July 8 through July 13. A total of 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. There is a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points on both the Democratic and Republican results.

Oxendine, Handel and Deal all tried to spin the results as good news.

"This poll reaffirms that John's message of downsizing state government, scrapping the income tax and fixing our infrastructure problems is exactly what Georgians want from their next governor," said Stephen Puetz, Oxendine's campaign manager.

Handel and Deal said the poll gave them a claim on a spot in the runoff with Oxendine.

"When we get into a runoff with John Oxendine, let me tell you, we're going to beat him like a drum," said Handel spokesman Dan McLagan.

Deal spokesman Brian Robinson said his man is "perfectly positioned to end up in the runoff against John Oxendine."

"Georgia voters who have tuned in have only gotten a negative message from one candidate," Robinson said, "and that's Karen Handel."

Johnson, the popular former state Senate leader, dismissed the poll results as underrepresenting his strength.

"This poll is absolutely wrong," Johnson spokesman Ben Fry said, pointing to a number of other recent polls that have shown Johnson in a tight race for third and closer to Deal.

Barnes, despite his perch atop the Democratic pile, would not get drawn into a posture of paying attention to polls.

"We are not running a campaign that is based on poll numbers," Barnes said. "From Day One, our campaign has been focused on ways to make Georgia work."

Baker's campaign is holding fast to its belief that voters will rally to his side.

"The more people hear about Thurbert's plans to create 100,000 new jobs and transform our schools by adding bingo to the lottery, the more people support him," Baker campaign manager Jeff DiSantis said.

David Poythress and DuBose Porter, who received the support of 7 percent and 3 percent, respectively, said the poll is but a snapshot and does not reflect true voter sentiment.

Porter, the House minority leader, pointed to another recent poll that showed him getting 16 percent, tied with Baker, among those who already have voted.

"Sonny Perdue's lead (in 2002) never showed up on polls until the day of the election," Porter said.

Poythress said the polls thus far mostly have gauged name recognition.

"There's a lot of fluid motion in the electorate and will be right up until Election Day," he said.

Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, said Baker still has a shot at forcing Barnes into a runoff, but it's growing more and more remote.

"Barnes is winning a plurality of African-American voters, and they're over 40 percent of the Democratic primary," Coker said. "If the black vote was to suddenly fall off Barnes and coalesce behind Baker, you could see a runoff. But we don't see that happening."

Again, the real heat is on the Republican side, Coker said. There was a slight tightening of the results recorded Tuesday, and Coker said that could be attributed to Sarah Palin's decision Monday to endorse Handel.

"There might be a little bump from that," Coker said. "I still see a lot of fluidity in the race. The undecided vote is 19 percent - that's a lot of voters still in play."

THE VOTERS SPEAK

Chatsworth poll respondent David Graham, 45, said he's still not sure who to vote for, but he's educating himself on the candidates.

"I'm still trying to figure out what's going on because I want somebody to do what's right," Mr. Graham said.

He said he was "leaning" toward Nathan Deal, mostly because of his stance on immigration.

"Illegal's illegal, it doesn't matter how you look at it," he said. "Being prejudiced is not in my blood ... but legal is legal; be here legally."

Cartersville poll respondent Joseph Rodke, 50, said more people need to study the issues and candidates.

"A lot of it's name recognition and how smoothly that person can talk," he said.

He plans to vote for Mr. Oxendine, largely based on his belief that Mr. Oxendine will seek to eliminate the state income tax.

Carolyn Draper, 67, of White, Ga., said she is on the fence between Ms. Handel and Mr. Johnson and that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Ms. Handel may be enough to sway her vote.

Dr. Ken Ellinger, a professor of political science at Dalton State College, said he doesn't think "any of these candidates have gotten people excited."

The fact that more than 30 percent of those surveyed didn't recognize the names of Mr. Deal, a former congressman, or Ms. Handel, the former secretary of state, supports his theory.

Dr. Ellinger said Mr. Barnes' name recognition from his previous term as governor plays heavily in his favor, despite any enemies he may have made. Of those surveyed, 87 percent recognized Mr. Barnes with either a positive or neutral opinion, compared with only 6 percent with a negative opinion.

"Even some of the people who hated him 10 years ago have forgotten why they hated him," he said.

The poll shows that the economy is driving voter concern.

"Everything pivots around the economy," Mason-Dixon's Coker said.

The results also show Oxendine dominating any runoff for the Republican nomination. Handel gives him the closest challenge, where Oxendine wins 39 percent to 33 percent. Oxendine bests Deal 46 percent to 31 percent and Johnson 42 percent to 24 percent.

But, if Barnes is the ultimate Democratic nominee, the poll found him beating or tied with any Republican in a hypothetical general election match-up.

The question of who wins in November was asked of 625 registered voters from July 8 through July 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Andy Johns and Ben Benton of the Chattanooga Times Free Press, Melissa Weinman and Ashley Fielding of the Gainesville Times, Doug Walker of the Rome News-Tribune and Rodney Manley of the Macon Telegraph contributed.

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