Fab 4 picks
Well, we're on to the bowl season.
It was a successful season. Wait, scratch that. It was an entertaining season.
We finished 49-34, which is a touch over 59 percent. That means if you put 100 credit vouchers on each of the Fab 4 picks this season, you would have come out a little more than 1,100 credits to the good (and that factors in the charges for missed picks for the entertainment broker and the extra fees for the four times we lost games when buying the half).
Not too shabby.
That pushed our career total of picking games against the spread since 2011 around these parts to 333-209-6. That's 61.4 percent. Cha-entertainment.
But it was not all merry rainbows and making it rain for all entertainment hunters this year. Here are some of the worst beats - games that in the eyes of the Vegas numbers would have been Flutie-esque level of Hail Mary - of 2016:
The onside kick to the shins. On two occasions this year in the SEC, a very secure feeling was toppled with a late touchdown return of an onside kick. Florida's Antonio Calloway returned a Missouri onside kick for a TD late - with the score a meaningless 33-14 to exceed the over/under total of 52. It was the second TD in the final minute. Then there was the double dip for the Georgia Bulldogs, who covered an 8.5 line and flipped the over/under of 41.5 with an onside return for a score at South Carolina to win 28-14. Ouch-standing indeed.
The overtime effect. There are a lot of college football stories each year about overtime and the alternating rules crushing those with an under ticket. The most egregious this year may have been Hawaii-Air Force, which featured an over/under total of 59. The game was 10-7 at half and 20-20 midway through the fourth as Air Force marched 19 plays and ate up more than 8 minutes to set up a game-winning 32-yard try that would have nestled well under the total. Wide right, and two overtimes later and the Rainbows' 34-27 win upset the Falcons and everyone backing the under.
Hail no. Ohio was a 12-point favorite over Bowling Green and led 30-17 with less than a minute to play. BGSU faced fourth-and-27 from the Ohio 37 and lofted a Hail Mary into the end zone that was deflected twice before becoming a spread-busting TD.
Smart play, dumb result. USC was giving Colorado 5 in October and the Trojans were leading 21-17. On third-and-7, USC QB Sam Darold found JuJu Smith-Schuster for a first down and much more. Smith-Schuster had a clear path to the end zone for a walk-in score but he fell to the ground and the Trojans ran out the clock.
So there's that.
And now we turn our attention to bowl season, and a lot of the normal rules we follow - lines that look too good to be true normally are, travel and rest matter, bye weeks are important, to name but three - have far less value.
The biggest guess in the college football postseason is motivation, especially when you talk about the opening weekend of bowls and some teams are finishing out the string and some are hoping to make a mark.
Here are a few bowl-betting guidelines to make sure you pay attention:
- Coaching turnover is a wildcard.
- If a team which has not been a bowl game in a handful of years is playing a name-recognized team in a nondescript bowl, motivation lies with the newcomer more times than not.
- Coaches postseason records matter. A lot. That last one is importance because you get a sense of which coaches are good at extended game-planning and making sure their kids are focused.
Nick Saban is the best at this. Tommy Tuberville was terrible at it. (Side note: Maverick offensive coaches are notorious for trying some crazy bowl stuff, so the over is a fine play in a lot of those decisions.)
With that, let's attack the bowl games scheduled between now and next Thursday (lines are from VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning):
Houston minus-3.5 over San Diego State. Remember when we said coaching turnover matters, well, the Cougars lost their coach when Tom Herman went to Texas. But promoting from within eases the transition and calms the players' nerves. We're not sure whether Major Applewhite will be a good hire long-term - and with the but he was most entertaining hire for this bowl game. (And yes, the half point and the presence of D.J. Pumphrey are a little scary.)
UTSA plus-7.5 over New Mexico. UTSA is playing in its first bowl game ever and this game is a chance to put a stamp on what could be memorable season for the players. And if you need more than just 'feel' now know New Mexico is terrible defensively - in the bottom 10 nationally in defensive efficiency - and UTSA has played a much tougher schedule and finished ranked in the top 50 against the run nationally.
BYU minus-8.5 over Wyoming. The Cougars are 8-4, have won four in a row and are among the anomalies of teams with eight or wins in that they are better against the spread than are overall. BYU is 9-3 against the number. How will that change with starting quarterback Taysom Hill out? That's hard to know, but to be fair back-up Tanner Mangum got tons of experience last year when Hill was out. Here's what we do know, BYU's record-setting running back Jamaal Williams is a beast. Wyoming has limped to the finish line with three losses in their last four, including a 69-66 loss against UNLV, and is in the bottom 10 nationally against the pass.
Tulsa minus-12.5 over Eastern Michigan. The Hurricanes are high-flying offensively and have scored 31 or more in every game they played anyone not named Ohio State this year. And they are balanced, with a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,500-yard rusher. And EMU is another team that has struggled down the stretch, going 1-4 straight-up and against the number in its last five. This one will get awfully ugly.
Memphis plus-6 over Western Kentucky. The Tigers have truly surprised considering the departure of a quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft (Paxton Lynch) and its coach (Justin Fuente). Now add in the fact that last year they were pretty giddy about getting to a bowl and they got waxed by Auburn. Now add on top of that Western Kentucky lost its head coach - and Jeff Brohm was a huge part of the Hilltoppers' success - and WKU is 122nd nationally (out of 128 remember) in passing yards allowed.
College football bowl contest
If you are looking for a lower-risk but still entertaining bowl game contest, we'll you have come to the right place. Here's the list of games for the Bowling for Bowls of Bowl Game Success (Bowler Optional):.
Rules are pretty self-explanatory: Player gets the points in each tier for each correct pick; Missed picks do not count for negative point; four our purposes, these lines are considered final; the Tiebreaker will be from the national championship game as necessary; Picks must be in by 11:59 p.m. Friday night.
Questions?
One-point games (8)
New Mexico Bowl - New Mexico (-7.5) vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Bowl - Houston (-3.5) vs. San Diego State
Camellia Bowl - Appalachian State vs. Toledo (pick 'em)
Cure Bowl - UCF (-6.5) vs. Arkansas State
New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss (-3.5) vs. La.-Lafayette
Miami Beach Bowl - Central Michigan vs. Tulsa (-11.5)
Home Loans Bowl - South Alabama vs. Air Force (-12.5)
Poinsettia Bowl - BYU (-8.5) vs. Wyoming
Two-point games (8 games; 16 points possible)
Boca Raton Bowl - Memphis vs. Western Kentucky (-4.5)
Potato Bowl - Idaho vs. Colorado State (-13.5)
Bahamas Bowl - Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion (-3.5)
Armed Forces Bowl - Louisiana Tech (-3.5) vs. Navy
Dollar General Bowl - Ohio vs. Troy (-3.5)
Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii vs. MTSU (pick 'em)
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Army (-9.5) vs. North Texas
Military Bowl - Temple (-13.5) vs. Wake Forest
Three-point games (8 games; 24 point spossible)
National Funding Holiday Bowl - Minnesota vs. Washington State (-6.5)
Catcus Bowl - Boise State (-7.5) vs. Baylor
Pinstripe Bowl - Pittsburgh (-5.5) vs. Northwestern
Russell Athletic Bowl - West Virginia vs. Miami (-2.5)
Foster Farms Bowl - Indiana vs. Utah (-7.5)
Texas Bowl - Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. Kansas State
Birmingham Bowl - USF (-10.5) vs. South Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl - Maryland (-1.5) vs. Boston College
Four-point games (7 games; 28 points possible)
Belk Bowl -Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech (-6.5)
Alamo Bowl - Oklahoma State vs. Colorado (-3.5)
Sun Bowl - Stanford (-3.5) vs. North Carolina
TaxSlayer Bowl - Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs. Kentucky
Cotton Bowl - Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin (-7.5)
St. Petersburg Bowl - Miami (Ohio) vs. Mississippi State (-12.5)
Independence Bowl - NC State (-4.5) vs. Vandy
Five-point games (7 games; 35 points possible)
Outback Bowl - Florida (-2.5) vs. Iowa
Music City - Nebraska vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
Orange Bowl - Michigan (-6.5) vs. FSU
Citrus Bowl - LSU (-3.5) vs. Louisville
Liberty Bowl - Georgia vs. TCU (pick 'em)
Sugar Bowl - Auburn vs. Oklahoma (-4.5)
Rose Bowl - USC (-6.5) vs. Penn State
Seven-point games (2 games; 14 points possible)
Peach Bowl - Washington vs. Alabama (-15.5)
Fiesta Bowl - Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Clemson
The national championship will serve as a tie-breaker as it arises.
Deal? Deal.
Go ahead and enter. Don't cost nothin' after all.
Utah Jazz guard Rodney Hood (5) shoots as Oklahoma City Thunder guard Semaj Christon, center, defends in the second quarter during an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2016, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer) Labor peace
OK, it appears that baseball and basketball have come to tentative agreements on labor deals moving forward.
While we are not privy to the details of these accords, and we can all admit that the biggest parts of them are financial of course, we hope some of these issues are addressed, at least in part.
According to this report from ESPN's Marc Stein most of the details are about the money in the NBA deal. One item of note was that the NBA draft regulations will remain the same in this seven-year deal, so those of us wanting some movement toward the MLB draft policies will again be left in the cold. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18280618/nba-players-union-reach-tentative-new-labor-agreement
The players also got the ability to negotiate for licensing deals, a big sticking point for the players side.
In the details of the above story is a paragraph about the league going to fewer back-to-back games and four-games-in-five-night sets.
That's a good thing considering the bad deal that played out in Memphis last night. The Cavs, arguably the second-hottest ticket in the league behind the road show that is the Golden State Warriors, made their only trip to Memphis this year.
So the Memphis fans wanting to see the defending NBA champs got to pay premium prices for the Cavs to start, JR Smith, Mike Dunleavy, Channing Frye, Tristan Thompson and DeAndre Liggins.
No Big 3, as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love all took the night off.
We get the need to rest guys, but that's a tough pill to swallow for the fans who wanted to see some of the game's brightest stars - and paid a premium to do it.
This and that
- Richard Sherman said Thursday night games are a poopfest. And the Seahawks are going to make sure of it with all neon green uniforms. In fact, let's call it a baby poopfest.
- Not surprisingly the Patriots are the solid favorites in Vegas' eyes to win the Super Bowl.
- Here's the TV viewing schedule for bowl games, which start Saturday.
- We will have Russ Huesman, new Richmond coach and former UTC coach, on Press Row today at 4 p.m. to discuss the decision and the details of leaving the Mocs for the Spiders.
- Here's part of the TFP's coverage of Coach Huesman leaving UTC for Richmond with a list of 12 potential candidates from TFP UTC beat ace Mean Gene Henley, who broke the story Wednesday morning. Some interesting names there to be sure but it's pretty hard to imagine someone like Bob Shoop, who is making more than a million bucks per, coming to UTC, right? As usual, TFP ace sports columnist Mark Widener delivers the goods on the decision here.
Today's question
Lots to read, so we understand if you need a break.
First a couple of questions: Have you sent in your college football bowl entry? Have you got a mailbag entry? Time is running out.
For you Mocs fans, who of the bandied about names excites you the most when thinking of Russ Houseman's replacement?
Finally, for those Rushmore types, it was 23 years ago today that "Schindler's List" was released. What's on Steven Spielberg's Rushmore?