Frisky Four picks
OK, we salvaged a 2-2 showing on the conference title games which moved our NFL picks - a decision we rolled with after a request from a Press Row listener - to 20-8 against the number.
That's pretty stout.
And while these picks, as always, are for entertainment purposes only, with that kind of cushion, we definitely are playing with house entertainment. So let's go bold. So let's go crazy. And let's go find some more entertaining in Super Bowl LI. (Side questions: Is anyone else calling this Super Bowl 'Lee' and does it look like Super Bowl U a little bit when it's typed out?) Where were we? Oh yes, the big picks for the big games.
First, we feel obligated to look at some of the crazy prop bets that are out there. Of course there are the traditional ones: Coin toss, color of the gatorade thrown on the coach, tons of options on various stats and more. There also are some not-so-traditional ones, such as
- - What will Luke Bryan be wearing when he sings the National Anthem: Blue Jeans - 1-to-2 (meaning you have to bet $100 to win $50); any other type of pants or shorts - 3-to-2.
- - How many times will President Donald Trump be mentioned during the game broadcast: Over/under 1.5. (That is also the total for the over/under on the number of times "deflate" or "deflate gate" will be mentioned during the broadcast.)
- - Will the word 'Lacrosse' be said during the broadcast? Yes is a 1-to-3 pick (again, that means you bet $100 to win $33) and no is a 2-to-1 choice. We really like yes in that one considering Chris Hogan was a college lacrosse player and he has to figure into the broadcast at east some right?
- - There are of course odds for the songs Lady Gaga will play at halftime as well.
In all, according to USA Today, there are more than 400 total prop bets. In truth we wonder about some of the ones above because they could so easily be manipulated. What would it take for Luke Bryan to share with his buddies that he has decided to wear a suit for this moment or for Troy Aikman to promise to mention Lacrosse during the broadcast. Truth be told, it would shocking if this has not already happened before in the grand scheme of things, right?
The real picks
OK, let's get to our choices.
New England minus-3 and buy the half. We want the Falcons to win. But in the end, everything points back to New England. Certainly the Falcons can win, they have an offense that deserves to be mentioned among the top 10 or 12 offenses in modern NFL history. They can generate a ton of points and their secondary is physical, fast and believes it's bulletproof. But check the boxes: Experience, yep. Coaching and comfort in preparation, yep. Ability to adapt to any style of game, yep. For the Falcons to win, it will have to be the same type of Falcons script we have become accustomed to: Fast start, defense turns the opponent one-dimensional, a key turnover and the Falcons massage a multiple-score lead. In fact, if they can dictate that script on the Patriots, then they deserve to win. But Brady almost assuredly won't get flustered like Rodgers and Wilson did in previous playoff routs. And the Patriots can win in all sorts of ways. They can grind you, they can run with you, they can play ball control with you, they are that thorough and polished. We are hoping for a great game - a rarity in these playoffs mind you - but the smart entertainment rides with the Patriots if for no other reason than all of us are asking ourselves, "Can the Falcons really win this thing?"
Over the 59. This is a great total. We thought about going over on the number of TDs scored at 6.5. Why? Well, a couple of reasons. First, the total is perfect - can't you see this being a 31-28 or 34-24 type-of-game? But then we thought that if Vegas expects there to be more than 6.5 TDs scored and fewer than seven punts, with field goal kickers this good, that feels like an over play here. (And yes, the over has been a machine this postseason, going 7-3 so far in the playoffs, so there's that too.)
Luke Bryan under the 2 minutes and 15 seconds on the national anthem. This one ranges, and some books have it listed as high 2:18, so we'll split the middle. In addition to Bryan's pants choice you can also bet whether he puts his hand over his heart (yes is a 1-to-6 favorite) and whether any of the in uniform players will take a knee or sit down, a la Colin Kaepernick.
Tom Brady under 2.5 rushing yards. Of the more than 400 prop bets out there more than a quarter of them include options on the two quarterbacks, ranging from totals on completions, attempts and yards to if they will throw a TD pass in whatever quarter. The extravagant goes all the way to the prop bet that the monster soccer matchup this weekend between Leicester City and Manchester United figures into this. Yes, the number of yellow cards issued in that match -1 against the number of interceptions total thrown by Matt Ryan and Brady. Oy vey.
That said, this one jumped out for the following reasons, Atlanta's defense is fast and Brady is not. Here's Brady's rushing totals in every game since week 12 this season: -4, 1, -1, -1, 0, 6, -1, -1. If the Patriots need something short, here's betting LaGarrette Blount gets that chance. Plus, when you run that many short patterns, there's not as much space for a busted pocket and scramble.
UTC football coach Tom Arth speaks Wednesday about his first signing class with the Mocs.Signing Day
There is no doubting the power of the signing day haul.
The biggest dynasty in men's college sports since UCLA is driven by the overwhelming and consistent excellence of the Alabama recruiting machine. It continued Wednesday as the Tide landed the top-ranked class for the seventh consecutive year. So it goes.
Here are some final thoughts about the big day, which could very well be the last signing day of this size since the NCAA will allow early signing in December in the next recruiting cycle.
Alabama - A++ What else can you give them considering they a) had the highest regarded class, b) had the most 5-star players, c) pulled almost every single player they wanted, d) added a 5-star defensive tackle on signing day when an earlier five-star commit did not qualify and e) got a 4-star defensive end - a top 100-player nationally - to accept a greyshirt over offers from Auburn, FSU and Florida on Wednesday. Saban is Voldemort in the dark arts of recruiting.
Georgia - A+ Kudos Kirby Smart, you passed your first full recruiting cycle with flying colors. The Bulldogs finished with the No. 3-ranked class nationally and addressed a lot of needs, most importantly on the offensive line and in the secondary, places were several of these incoming stars will get a chance to play right away.
UTC - A There are not as many sliding scales or rankings to measure the FCS programs, but here are a few things to consider with the Mocs class under Tom Arth, who has been on the job since Dec. 19. They assembled a lot of talent in a major hurry. They landed two three-star kids and eight all-state high school players. They spread the scholarships across a lot of positions and worked a lot of magic in state, in what was a better than average year in the state of Tennessee, even if if was not the best overall year year for talent in the Chattanooga area.
Auburn - B+ All things considered this class id pretty impressive for the following reasons: 1) Coach Gus Malzahn is on a definite hot seat and that can make selling a four-year experience difficult in the shark-filled waters that are the dark arts; 2) The Tigers had to have a quarterback and they got a quarterback who is ready to play in Jarrett Stidham, the former Baylor freshman star who sat out last year and was viewed as the No. 1 JuCo player in the country; and 3) Yes it gets hugely overshadowed by the Bama success, but did you know that Malzahn has assembled top-10 classes in each of his full recruiting cycles any Auburn?
Tennessee - C+ Yes the Vols had a top-20 class, but that class ranked in the middle of the SEC at seventh. There was no signing day juice, and there were some five-star misses in state with some guys who are going to be stars.
This and that
- That stupid groundhog Paunchy Paul or whatever his name is apparently thinks we will have six more weeks of winter. Wait scratch that, he thinks we'll have six weeks of winter, because other than a random day or two here and there, this has been the mildest winter we can ever recall.
- Chuck and LeBron, round II. Here's the quotes Barkley tossed out on Chicago's ESPN radio affiliate Wednesday. Here's the link, and know the winner will be tonight's TNT coverage.
- Monster win for Kansas last night, holding off N. 2-ranked Baylor. The Jayhawks have a stout look about them these days.
- Here's CBSsports.com's view of the winners and losers of signing day. Alabama and USC are atop the rankings. Texas, which limped to the finish with the coaching change and failed to land a single in-state player ranked in the top 10, was among the biggest losers.
- Enjoyed this signing day column from TFP ace Mark Wiedmer.
Today's question
We'll be short and sweet today.
First, have you offered up a mailbag entry? Second, who you got in the big game.
As for the others, well, let's try these. Rushmore of rodents, and does Punxsutawney Phil make it? Does Groundhog's Day make the Bill Murray Rushmore? (We'd lean no.)