Wiedmer: A Michigan win would be a fitting end to this NCAA tourney

Michigan junior forward Moritz Wagner has helped the Wolverines win 14 straight games heading into tonight's NCAA tournament final against Villanova.
Michigan junior forward Moritz Wagner has helped the Wolverines win 14 straight games heading into tonight's NCAA tournament final against Villanova.

Concerned that his Michigan men's basketball team's defensive skills were nowhere close to its offensive magic, Wolverines coach John Beilein decided a couple of years ago that he needed major help on that end of the court.

To further that transformation this season, Beilein brought in assistant Luke Yaklich, whom he views as something of a defensive coordinator while the head coach continues to oversee one of the most creative, entertaining offenses in the college game.

And never will Yaklich's skill set be needed more than tonight, when the Maize and Blue face Villanova in the 80th NCAA title game. Tipoff at the Alamodome in San Antonio is set for 9:20, with TBS televising the game.

Or as Kansas coach Bill Self observed Saturday night, after his Jayhawks lost 95-79 to Villanova in the national semifinals: "That's as good a team as we've played against that I can remember. They'd be hard for anybody to deal with if they shoot the ball like that."

That they will be, for no team has ever shot the ball as well from afar in the Final Four as the Philly Phelines did against Kansas, hitting a record 18 3-pointers in 40 attempts. Though this was not Self's best defensive team, it was good enough to capture its 14th straight Big 12 regular-season championship, win the conference tournament, draw a No. 1 seed for the NCAA bracket and finish with 31 victories.

Yet less than seven minutes along against 'Nova, the Jayhawks trailed 22-4 - and they never drew within single-digits the rest of the game.

"It's our best offensive team," said Wildcats coach Jay Wright, which is saying something because his 2016 team won the program's second national title. "We've had some good ones. This is definitely our best."

photo Michigan assistant coach Luke Yaklich watches against Indiana in the first half of an NCAA basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Dec. 2, 2017. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Which is where Yaklich comes in, because as good as top-seeded Villanova (35-4) has been most of this tournament, especially from afar, in last week's East Regional final against Texas Tech, the Wildcats' accuracy went off the rails as they shot 4-for-24 from 3-point range.

This is important on at least two fronts. First, it proves the Wildcats aren't always sizzling from deep. Second, while Texas Tech is ranked fourth in basketball guru Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, Michigan is third.

Beyond that, having never previously been ranked higher than 33rd nationally in points allowed and once ranked as low as 145 during Beilein's 11-year tenure, Michigan ranked eighth nationally in points allowed during the regular season (63.5). The Wolverines have been even stronger in the NCAA tourney, giving up an average of 58.6 points per game through five contests.

So despite all that offensive greatness displayed by the Wildcats against Kansas, there are at least one or two reasons to believe third-seeded Michigan (33-7) stands a fair chance, not the least of which is its 14-game winning streak. The Wolverines are quick, fast and energetic enough to have worn down the most energetic team in the field in Saturday's other semifinal, twice coming from 10 down in the final half to best the tourney's best story, Loyola-Chicago.

In fact, Michigan has had its own share of nailbiters these past three weeks, overcoming a near-death experience in the second round against Houston by hitting a game-winning 3-pointer just ahead of the horn, then following that up with a grinder over Florida State in the West Regional final.

Everyone on the team now embraces lockdown defense, and big man Mo Wagner is the kind of versatile post player who - thanks to his gangly drives to the basket and feathery touch from the perimeter - makes guarding him a nightmare.

His hero is fellow German and all-time Dallas Mavericks great Dirk Nowitzki, and if Wagner is not quite that good, he is certainly good enough to lead an upset of Villanova if the Wildcats are a wee bit off their game.

Even Wright noted after the win against Kansas: "We made all those shots, and we won by 16. If we're not shooting at an incredible clip, that's a one- or two-point game. And then you have to grind it out defensively."

Both teams in the title game can grind. Though 'Nova's offense gets a lot of publicity for averaging a nation-leading 87.1 points per game this season, its superb point guard, Jalen Brunson, is correct in this observation: "Obviously we're very talented offensively. We have a lot of weapons offensively, but when it comes to us staying together on defense, that's what makes it special."

And if Wright's right that it could come down to one or two points, Villanova has made more than 78 percent of its free throws this season while Michigan has connected on only 66 percent. That alone might be why Las Vegas has made the Wildcats a 6.5-point favorite, the largest spread in the tourney title game since Duke faced Butler in 2010.

That doesn't mean Beilein is conceding anything, particularly after Loyola shot 1-for-10 from 3-point range after entering with an average of 7.5 makes per game this season.

"If you look at our numbers, we're one of the best at really trying to shut down the 3 ball," he said after Saturday's win. "They held us under our number, but we really held them under their number."

None of this means Villanova won't emerge victorious. Vegas almost always knows its business.

But at the close of a tournament that has provided more shocks than locks, I'll predict one more surprise: Michigan 69, Villanova 67.

Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.

Upcoming Events