Championship week
OK, we're here and there are a lot of experts taking a lot of underdogs.
I get that. Games against familiar foes. Big stakes in terms to titles, legacy and bowl plans.
But finding entertainment is more than finding favorable angles. In some ways, the motivation is more than the match-up. Believing you can win and hoping you can win can get your destroyed this week.
And that's what we're counting on.
THE Ohio State-Wisconsin minus-16.5 over the 55. THE Ohio State may go over the total on its own in this one. THE Buckeyes with that speed indoors? Yes please. Keep an eye on the health of Justin Fields, but there's no way you can avoid the facts here. THE Ohio State has not covered huge numbers all year only twice since the season opener: One was against a Rutgers team that THE OSU was completely sleep-walking and the other was not covering 20 against Penn State in a game that THE OSU could have easily won by 35 with the multiple, TD-swinging turnovers. Am I worried about THE OSU knowing it is in with a win or a loss? Yes, I am. But I also believe that they also know the divide between being the 1 seed and the 2 is huge, and style points matter.
Clemson minus-28 over Virginia. Speaking of teams with their foot on the gas, holy buckets of petrol, Dabo's Dudes are crushing people. Since hearing the "They should have lost to UNC (and they should have)" you want to know what the results have been? They are 7-0 overall and 6-1 against the spread (the only non-cover was a disinterested walk over Wofford). The spreads they have covered were -26 over FSU, -24.5 over Louisville, -35 over BC, -35 over NC State, -34.5 over Wake Forest and -27.5 over South Carolina. In fact, not riding the Dabos after the bye week is one of the biggest entertainment-hunting miscues in recent memory. And don't you believe that a) Virginia is truly happy to just get there, and b) Clemson is truly embracing the double middle-finger tour against everyone?
LSU-Georgia under 56. Yes, I have backed the Bulldogs because they were title pick before the start of the season and there's no way I'm bailing now. Hey, dumb and loyal is still loyal and smart and shifty will always be shifty. Everyone is on LSU. Everyone. (That gives a lot of credence to the "Us against the world" mentality.) Plus, LSU has a mulligan; Georgia has to win to advance. Yes, the lack 100 percent DeAndre Swift worries me, in the grand scheme. But I think Georgia is going to keep this one close - and if it gets north of 7, I think you have to lean that way - which means it has to be a low-scoring affair.
Utah-Oregon under 47.5. Outside in the elements with two very good and very experienced defenses. And get on this one now friends. It opened at 50 and could very well get close to 45.
FAU minus-7 over UAB. UAB tippy-toed into the Conference USA title game because Louisiana Tech had to suspend its quarterback for the end of the regular season. Lane Kiffin has a lot to love here in that a) his offense takes care of the ball, b) his defense forces turnovers and c) this kind of platform is a great chance for his continued résumé floating. Buy the half here to be safe, but this feels like a two- or three-score win for the FAU Kiffins.
Last week: 3-5 (37.5 percent) against the spread.
This season: 57-48-2 (54.3 percent) against the spread.
All-time (since 2011): 536-354-11 (60.2 percent) against the spread.
QB Carousel
So, Eli Manning is apparently going to get the start this weekend. Yes, that Eli Manning.
(Man, the Eli, Hall of Fame debate is head-scratchingly worthless. Want to discuss the hinge word being will and should: Will Eli make the Hall? Yes. He's a Manning with two Super Bowl titles, some top-20 all-time passing stats and a great guy that has been forever loved in a monster media market. Should Eli make the Hall? Well, there you go. He's 116-116 all-time as a starter, those two Super Bowl runs accounted for all of his postseason wins, he was never an All-Pro, never led the league in passing yards or TDs in a season, finished in the top-10 of QB rating at the end of a season just once in his career, and never sniffed anywhere close to the top in the MVP voting.)
But that feels like a conversation for another time.
With the news that Manning is back on the field for the battered rookie Daniel Jones, it is a springboard for what could be the craziest quarterback carousel in NFL history.
When asked Wednesday, Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians passed on whether Jameis Winston is the Bucs long-term QB answer. That's certainly the most polite way Arians can put it considering that Winston entered the season with the most turnovers since 2015 and he's thrown 20 picks this season.
Winston is one of nine quarterbacks (on seven teams) in the final year of their current contracts. Tennessee quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill and New Orleans quarterbacks Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater are in their final seasons on their current deals. Also on that list are Eli, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady and Dak Prescott.
That does not include guys like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, who will assuredly be cap casualties, or guys like Derek Carr or Mitchell Trubisky, who look to be trying mighty hard to play their way out of starting gigs, or the unknown situations in places like Miami, Jacksonville and Washington or the long-term solutions because of injuries and retirement needed in Indy, Pittsburgh and Detroit.
That means half the league will head into the offseason with at least one eye on making QB moves.
Now add in the intrigue of the draft - as well as those notable names of established NFL vets who will be on the market - and the carousel will hit new speeds.
Pitcher refill
There are a few guys making sports decisions that have earned universal seal of approval.
When Nick Saban takes a commitment from a two-star prospect, I fully expect that two-star to be Marcel Dareus. When Bill Belichick adds a veteran free agent, I full expect that addition to be a contributor like Jamie Collins.
After those two dudes, there's a wide gap between the next collection of decision-makers who get a very solid benefit of the doubt about their decisions. When Coach K and Calipari take a five-star, there's a very good chance that the dude will be a lottery pick. (It's not as universal as the Saban and Belichick seal, but each has generated enough success through the years to get the benefit of the most doubting of Thomases.)
Want to know who else is speeding toward that team photo? Braves GM Alex Anthopoulus.
The Nick Markakis experiments have worked. The Josh Donaldson signing worked. The decision to go Dallas Kuechel over Craig Kimbrel worked.
So, signing Cole Hamels - yes, a lot of Braves backers wanted another Cole, and not Nat King - to a one-year deal certainly falls into a place that we are going to smile and nod, even if it almost assuredly means the big-dollar aces of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are out of the Braves' price range.
(Also, the Phillies signing Zach Wheeler gets $118 million for five years from the Phillies also adds value to the lack of huge dollars and long-term possible hiccups for the Hamels deal. Also, the fact that Hamels is openly discussing how he wants to be the veteran influence on the Braves young staff like Roy Holliday was to him.)
Will it be enough? Hard to know depending on what the other heavyweights in the NL do, because you have to think the Dodgers are going to keep swinging for the fences on a couple of biggest names still on the market.
(Also of note: Keep an eye on the Braves potentially trying to trade for a third baseman, especially if Anthony Rendon heads to L.A.)
This and that
- Here's today's A2 column on the Peloton dust-up. Enjoy and thanks for reading.
- That's three straight with the 5-at-10 college hoops picks. We were on Maryland minus-9 over Notre Dame. The Terms, who, it's worth reminding, represented the Big Ten in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, which is nuts, rolled 72-51.
- Speaking of hoops for entertainment purposes only, UT rolled over an already road-weary bunch of FAMU Rattlers. (Did you see those FAMU unis? Wow. Were they sponsored by Jolly Rancher?) Well, the final line was UT minus-30. UT had the ball up with 13 seconds left and leading 72-41. Rattlers guard Bryce Moragne got a steal and passed ahead to MJ Randolph, who pulled up for a jumper. It missed, but Randall Leath grabbed the offensive rebound and his meaningless stickback with four seconds left was anything but meaningless for a lot of folks.
- A Circle K in Goodyear, Ariz., sold a winning lottery ticket for $14-plus-million in July but the ticket went unclaimed and the deadline expired Monday.
Today's questions
OK, mailbag submitted or not? If not, why not?
As for Dec. 5, let's look around. Walt Disney would have been 118 today. Thanks for all you did, Walt.
Ocean's Eleven was released on this day in 2001.
Rushmore of movies with a number in the title. Go, and remember the mailbag.