Wiedmer: Big scare aside, Duke still team to beat in NCAA tourney

Duke forward Zion Williamson
Duke forward Zion Williamson

While we wonder if the Duke basketball program will award national championship rings to the three blind mice in stripes who somewhat officiated their NCAA tournament win over Central Florida on Sunday, has there ever been a more predictable tourney than this one?

According to ESPN, the betting favorites won all 16 round-of-32 games over the weekend. That's supposedly never before happened since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

And most of those favorites didn't need a favorable officiating crew to prevail. Of the 16 games staged Saturday and Sunday, 11 were decided by 12 or more points, with six of them by 19 or more points.

Only Duke's 77-76 win over Central Florida and LSU's 69-67 victory over Maryland came by two or fewer points. The average margin of victory for all 16 round-of-32 games was 14.3 points. Not exactly the stuff of bitten nails and nervous stomachs.

But that's also a credit to the selection committee. While 12 lower seeds won in the opening round, Mideast No. 5 Auburn - which was a two-point betting favorite over fourth-seeded Kansas - was the only lower seed to prevail over the weekend. So the committee got a lot more right than wrong, and that should make for an extremely entertaining second weekend of games.

So who should worry going forward? Probably not overall No. 1 seed Duke. Central Florida's 7-foot-6, 310-pound Tacko Fall was a once-in-a-tournament headache for Duke's magnificent 6-7, 275-pound Zion Williamson. And even then Mount Zion finished with 32 points, 11 rebounds and four assists.

Are the Blue Devils beatable? They were on Sunday. But a rematch with Virginia Tech in the Sweet 16 may be brutal for the Hokies, since Williamson sat out Tech's in-season win.

As for an East Regional final against second-seeded Michigan State or third-seeded LSU, both of those teams would seem to have the talent to threaten every Duke player not named Zion, but as gritty, gutty Central Florida learned, that's where the problem comes in. Williamson is just better than everybody else in the college game right now. Much better.

Barring an unfavorable officiating crew - and when was the last time that happened to the Dookies in a big game? - Duke will reach the Final Four for the third time since 2010, and each of the previous two times there (2010 and 2015), it won it all.

In the South, top-seeded Virginia won both its games by double figures and seems far better prepared than last year to win that region. But if Oregon can match the 13 3-pointers it bagged in Sunday night's 19-point victory over Cal Irvine, the Cavaliers once again could become cadavers, given their defense's penchant for allowing 3-pointers. The Ducks have hit 20 of 40 for the tourney, which sounds like danger time for UVa.

But the real threat for Virginia, should it survive Nike U, is attempting to knock off either Tennessee or Purdue in a Saturday regional final inside Louisville's Yum! Center.

The Boilermakers arguably have the most impressive victory in the tournament in crushing last year's national champion, Villanova, by 26 points in the round of 32. In junior guard Carsen Edwards, they also have the player with the most glittering individual performance, given his 42 points against 'Nova.

But Tennessee guard Lamonte Turner is roughly the same size as the 6-1 Edwards, just might be the fiercest defender for his size left in the tournament and according to 24/7 Sports is relishing the challenge, telling the website on Monday: "I expect him to try to come out and get 42 again, or 50, but it ain't going to happen. I'm going to you know, I'm taking it personally to come out and take on that matchup, and I'm looking forward to it."

But just in case Turner can't slow down Edwards enough to guarantee a Tennessee win, Volunteers coach Rick Barnes said Monday he'll pretty much throw the whole Big Orange roster at Texas Tornado, telling the media: "It'll be Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bone, Jordan Bowden, Yves Pons. You hope that officiating is good, because you've seen how Lamonte is going to get after it and Carsen is going to get after it. It'll be more than just Lamonte, (but) he'll be the first matchup."

In the Midwest, look for Kentucky to fall to underrated Houston if Wildcats forward P.J. Washington can't return from his sprained foot. Either way, expect North Carolina to prevail in this regional if it can survive Auburn's 3-point barrage. With 10 straight wins, the Tigers are the hottest team in the country, and Villanova rode such a shooting streak to last year's title, but that's tough to do and UNC has the overall balance to thwart such a strategy.

As for the West, Florida State is tough and talented enough to upset No. 1 seed Gonzaga on Thursday night in Anaheim, but Texas Tech may be the team to beat in the region if its defense carries it past Michigan in the other semi.

What's still most clear, despite its close call against Central Florida, is that Duke has Zion and that's too big an advantage for everyone else to overcome. Especially when, to return to a thought from UT's Barnes, the hope that officiating will be good at the most crucial of times continues to seem too much to expect these days.

Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.

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