The Daytona 500 is NASCAR's guessing game

AP photo by Chris O'Meara / Multiple cars crash during the Daytona 500 on Feb. 17, 2019, at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Fla. The crash included Austin Dillon (3), Daniel Suarez (41), David Ragan (38), Paul Menard (21), Ryan Newman (6), Aric Almirola (10), Matt DiBenedetto (95) and Ryan Blaney (12).
AP photo by Chris O'Meara / Multiple cars crash during the Daytona 500 on Feb. 17, 2019, at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Fla. The crash included Austin Dillon (3), Daniel Suarez (41), David Ragan (38), Paul Menard (21), Ryan Newman (6), Aric Almirola (10), Matt DiBenedetto (95) and Ryan Blaney (12).

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. - Survival is more valuable than any other skill in the Daytona 500.

NASCAR's most famous event is a three-hour, white-knuckle thrill ride in cramped quarters at 200 mph that's as much about finding holes and help than having speed and handling.

The fastest car rarely wins, and it has as good a shot at ending up in the junkyard as victory lane. There's no reason to expect any differently Sunday afternoon at Daytona International Speedway, when the 62nd running of "The Great American Race" will kick off another Cup Series season.

It's why little-known Michael McDowell has nearly as many top-10 finishes at the 2.5-mile tri-oval as stars Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson since the famed track was repaved in 2010.

McDowell is far from the only fluke. A look into recent top-10s at Daytona highlights the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing and gives hope to every driver in the 40-car field.

"To finish first, you must finish, right?" said veteran Stewart-Haas Racing driver Clint Bowyer, who was sixth in his Daytona 500 debut 14 years ago. "You've got to get there. Literally the hardest thing to do is get to the end of that race with all four of your fenders on."

photo AP photo by Darryl Graham / Erik Jones (20) and Kyle Larson wreck while going through the fourth turn at Daytona International Speedway during the NASCAR Cup Series' Busch Clash exhibition last Sunday in Daytona Beach, Fla.

Thirty years after Derrike Cope notched arguably the most improbable win in Daytona 500 history - he won once more in 1990 for the second and final win of his Cup Series career - the track has reached new heights, though it might not be viewed as progress by some.

These days, when it comes to the drivers running up front near the end, it's more like who's that than a who's who of stock car racing.

"Think about the way it was when I first started, what you had to overcome handling, slipping and sliding around and a gutsy move," said the 40-year-old Bowyer, who is 0-for-14 in the Daytona 500 and winless in 28 Cup Series starts at the Florida track, which also hosts a summer race.

"Now it's survival. You've got to survive," he explained. "You've got to figure out how to find that hole that's a safe hole that you can survive and make it to the end."

McDowell, AJ Allmendinger, Chris Buescher, Matt DiBenedetto, Ty Dillon and Erik Jones are among those with more top-10 results at Daytona than Kyle Larson, who is considered one of NASCAR's most complete and capable drivers competing today.

Austin Dillon, Paul Menard and Ryan Newman have combined for more top-10 showings at the famed track than Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski.

Odd, right? Some of the races look downright off, even for Daytona.

Ross Chastain and Ryan Preece slipped into the top 10 in last year's 500 after two late crashes that knocked out nearly half the field.

Austin Dillon notched the second victory of his Cup Series career in the 2018 opener thanks partly to a 12-car pileup in overtime. Dillon led a single lap - the last one.

photo AP photo by Phelan M. Ebenhack / Denny Hamlin leads the pack through the first turn at Daytona International Speedway during the 2019 Daytona 500. Hamlin won the NASCAR Cup Series opener for the second time in four years.

The July race at Daytona has been even more chaotic.

Rookie Justin Haley won last year's rain-shortened debacle that also included DiBenedetto, Corey LaJoie and Matt Tifft in the top 10. It was the second straight year the winner led only the final lap of that race.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - who will start in pole position Sunday - Buescher, McDowell, Brendan Gaughan and David Ragan found themselves up front at the end in 2017.

"Mainly it's all about making good decisions on the race track and being a smart guy on the track people want to work with," DiBenedetto said. "It's really doing all the things in your control to the best of your ability and then, on top of that, hoping all the things out of your control work your way, because you've got to have some luck."

The 2010 repave changed everything at Daytona.

The worn-out, slippery and bumpy racing surface, which prompted tire changes at nearly every pit stop, was gone. Instead, new asphalt around the high-banked track created the tightest pack racing ever seen at Daytona. Tandem racing became the trend in 2011, when Trevor Bayne's second Cup Series start ended with a trip to victory lane.

Several rules changes loosened up the tag-team racing, but two cars locking bumpers and pushing and bumping remains the fastest way around the track. Teamwork has become paramount, something that gets talked about before, during and after the races.

"It's wild," Buescher said. "There are a lot of things that are in your control. There's a lot of skill set to it and a lot of good decisions need to be made. But there is a luck factor as well."

photo AP photo by Terry Renna / Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin, a two-time Daytona 500 winner, climbs into his car Friday at Daytona Interational Speedway as he gets ready to practice for Sunday's edition of "The Great American Race" in Daytona Beach, Fla.

Hamlin has been one of the most fortunate in recent years. The winner of the Daytona 500 last year and in 2016, he is one of three drivers - along with McDowell and Joey Logano - to notch consecutive top-10 finishes in the season opener. Hamlin has finished in the 500's top 10 five times in the past six years.

"I talk about trying to be in the right position. That doesn't mean I'm not going to get wrecked on the first lap," Hamlin said. "I think the law of averages would tell you I'm due to get crashed out about the next six or seven Daytona 500s, because the last six or eight I haven't.

"I've been a factor to be at the end. You just never know. I'll continue to try to do the same thing. Who knows what will happen?"

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