There is no definitive answer regarding when or if the Chattanooga Lookouts will launch their 2020 season.
The same could be said about 2021.
Before these altering times due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the storied Lookouts of the Class AA Southern League appeared on a list of 42 minor league franchises that Major League Baseball wanted to contract after the 2020 season due to inadequate facilities or geographic concerns between the big league clubs and their affiliates. The New York Times reported on the contraction candidates this past November, but MLB responded to that article by stating the list was inaccurate.
"The team in Chattanooga is not likely to and certainly should not be contracted," Jason Freier, a Lookouts co-owner and the CEO of Hardball Capital, said this past week. "We have a fabulous market in Chattanooga, and we fit well into the geographical footprint of the Southern League. There is a deep history of baseball in Chattanooga."
MLB representatives and minor league baseball officials had hoped to hammer out a new Professional Baseball Agreement by now to replace the current one that expires after the 2020 season, but those talks are on hold due to coronavirus concerns. Currently at the forefront is MLB's potential return, given that millions of dollars are being lost without spectators in the seats of its 30 venues and with no television revenue.
Jayson Stark, the senior baseball writer for The Athletic and a contributor to the MLB Network, believes this suspension of play will only add to the likelihood that contraction occurs.
"That whole thing has been on hold for now because of the bigger issues that baseball is dealing with and everybody in the world is dealing with," Stark said. "I know it will roar back into light at some point. One thing that has come out of the latest agreement between the owners and the players is that this year's draft will only be five rounds. There are financial reasons for that, because this will be a year with limited revenues, but these minor league teams will only be adding a handful of players amid this potential contraction of some minor league teams ahead.
"It feels like you can connect these dots. We don't know where this is leading, and I think there may be a compromise out there somewhere, but whether that's enough to save a team like the Chattanooga Lookouts as we've come to know and love them is really hard to know right now."
Lose talent, lose teams?
This year's MLB draft, which could take place any time from June 10 to July 20, can indeed be as few as five rounds, with the 2021 draft having as few as 20. Given an MLB draft usually has 40 rounds, with last year's event producing 1,217 player selections, it's safe to assume there will be fewer quality talents developing through the minor league ranks in the years ahead.
Stark isn't alone when linking the reduction of drafted players to a reduction of minor league teams.
"In five to 10 years and maybe fewer, I think we'll be able to draw a straight line from this year's draft changes to a couple dozen minor league teams closing up shop," Mike Axisa of CBS recently wrote. "The pandemic is hurting minor league teams financially, and shortening the draft makes it more difficult to field full rosters at every level. The wheels have been put into motion."
Multiple media outlets are projecting the demise for smaller teams, such as those in the 10-member Appalachian League, which is a Rookie-class league that operates from June to September. The Appalachian League includes teams in four Tennessee locales: Elizabethton, Johnson City, Kingsport and Tusculum.
Yet the bigger minor league teams are equally concerned amid this pandemic, with Triple-A Memphis Redbirds owner Peter Freund recently telling NBC, "We are realistically looking at a situation where we may not operate this year." Freund also pointed out the irony to the contraction issue, as MLB has wanted several minor league teams to improve their facilities and working environments, yet the minor leagues more than ever need financial help from their MLB partners.
Another perspective
Freier is taking this all in and isn't sure how the coronavirus could affect contraction.
"I've seen the same speculation about some of the smaller teams if they lose a good portion of the season or the entire season, but I also think the counterintuitive of that is true," Freier said. "If you're not a successful team and you're not generating a lot of revenue, then you're not losing a whole lot of revenue by having the season shut down. If you're a high-level team selling out a lot of its games, you're losing tons of revenue.
"That matters, because all of us scale our businesses to what we expect the fan demand to be. The more successful teams have more people on staff. Obviously they don't want to contract the most successful teams. I just don't think the virus situation cuts in the same direction as the rationale if you had to choose teams to contract."
While the uncertainty remains as to whether Chattanooga still resides on the contraction list, team officials made $200,000 worth of enhancements in recent months to AT&T Field, the 6,340-seat facility that has housed the Lookouts since the 2000 season. Lookouts president Rich Mozingo said "substantial upgrades" have been made to the hitting cages, and the clubhouses have new flooring and new ice makers.
Whenever the 2020 season begins, the Lookouts would be in the second year of a two-year player development contract with the Cincinnati Reds, a partnership the Lookouts would love to have extended.
"We're still hoping," Freier said, "that there isn't any contraction at all."
Contact David Paschall at dpaschall@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6524.