This promises to be a year like no other for the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing.
Instead of kicking off the chase today with the Kentucky Derby, that storied event may end up capping the high-profile trio of horse races on Labor Day weekend.
Instead of 3-year-old colts saving the longest and most famous race of the legendary series for last, maybe they will begin in Elmont, New York, with a shortened Belmont Stakes in late May or June. Perhaps the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore will be run on a sweltering July afternoon.
It could happen.
All scenarios are on the table, with talks ongoing among representatives of the host tracks and broadcast partner NBC. Government and public health officials weighing in on health and safety concerns involving the coronavirus pandemic will figure heavily, too.
The heavyweight of the group, Louisville's Churchill Downs, announced in March it was moving the Kentucky Derby to Sept. 5 because of the pandemic that has halted live racing at some major tracks. It's the first time since 1945, when it was run in June, that the event first held in 1875 won't go off on the first Saturday in May.
And if it comes to it, the track has no problem bringing up the rear in the Triple Crown series.
"We're totally fine with it," said Darren Rogers, senior director of communications for Churchill Downs.
That will be especially true if the same horse wins the first two legs to set up a Triple Crown bid when the Derby rolls around.
"However it shakes down, this is a very unique year," Rogers said. "We've all had to make some very difficult but necessary decisions. That's not unique to Churchill; that's us as a society in general."
AP photo by Matt Slocum / Luis Saez rides Maximum Security, right, across the finish line first, ahead of Flavien Prat on Country House during the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 4, 2019, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. This year's race, typically the first in the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing, has been postponed from its traditional first Saturday in May date until Sept. 5, the first Saturday of that month.However it plays out, the Derby's traditional first Saturday in May date won't pass unnoticed.
Churchill Downs and NBC will mark the occasion with three hours of coverage starting at 3 p.m., including showing American Pharoah's 2015 Derby win, which launched the colt on a path to becoming the first Triple Crown champion in 37 years.
Also on tap is the track's first virtual horse race between the 13 Triple Crown winners - from Sir Barton in 1919 to Justify in 2018 - with Larry Collmus calling the race, set for approximately 5:45.
"It's so crazy," said Jack Wolf of Starlight Racing, co-owner of Derby contender Charlatan. "Nobody really knows where we stand with all this."
There is precedent for the Derby, Preakness and Belmont to be held out of order. Prior to 1931, the Preakness was run before the Derby 11 times. In 1917 and 1922, the Derby and the Preakness were run on the same day in May.
Starting in 1930, the term Triple Crown became popular in referring to the three races, and since 1931, the Derby, Preakness and Belmont have been run in that order.
The Maryland Jockey Club and the New York Racing Association have yet to announce new dates for the Preakness and the Belmont. The 1 3/16-mile Preakness is scheduled for May 16, which would have been two weeks after the 1 1/4-mile Derby's original date. The 1 1/2-mile Belmont is set for June 6, its usual spot five weeks after the Derby's original date.
"If you go from a mile-and-a-half and start dropping back, it's going to change a lot," said trainer D. Wayne Lukas, winner of 14 Triple Crown races. "It'll change how you train, it'll change the type of horse that will end up in the Derby. It'll be a very, very significant change."
There also is the prospect of not having more than 150,000 behatted, well-dressed, mint julep-sipping fans at the Derby, the raucous infield crowd at the Preakness or a busy grandstand at the Belmont.
The NYRA is seeking to restore live racing now at Belmont Park and later at Saratoga Race Course, which opens its schedule in July. The plan includes no spectators, additional health and safety precautions and only essential employees at the tracks. Churchill Downs has received clearance to resume live racing without fans on May 16, something other tracks have done during the pandemic.
The coronavirus outbreak also has upended the Road to the Kentucky Derby, creating challenges for the series of prep races that determines who is in the race. Points are awarded to the top four finishers in each event, and the top 18 finishers on the leaderboard earn spots in the starting gate for the Derby. Two spots are reserved for the top points earners from Europe and Japan.
A revised schedule of prep races isn't expected until the Preakness and Belmont dates are reset and live racing returns in California, Maryland and New York.
Churchill Downs has said horses that earned points before the remaining schedule was thrown into disarray by the pandemic will keep them. Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law leads the standings with 122 points.
Reorganizing the prep races and the Triple Crown series will require cooperation among tracks used to going their own way in a sport lacking centralized oversight.
"We've had conversations with a number of race tracks about potentially hosting a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying race," Rogers said. "As soon as the races are finalized and race tracks are back up and running, we'll make that announcement."
Owners and trainers are anxiously awaiting such news.
Said Liz Crow, a racing manager and bloodstock agent: "It's hard when you have horses ready to run and you don't have a game plan on where to run them."
If the Triple Crown begins with the Derby in September, trainers may decide to rest their top contenders. However, sticking with the traditional timing of the series would mean it ends just a month before the Breeders' Cup, set for Nov. 6-7 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. That would leave horses little time to regroup for the lucrative world championships.
Some horses could benefit from all the changes, with others hurt by it. The Triple Crown is restricted to 3-year-olds, giving horses only one chance to run in it.
"There is going to be some horses that go by the wayside," trainer Mark Casse said. "Then there's going to be some coming on that, if we had ran the Derby the first Saturday in May, they would've never had any chance."