There is little peace and no goodwill on the Korean Peninsula as Christmas Day approaches. That, unfortunately, is generally the case in that corner of the world, but the situation is especially perilous this holiday season. Talk of war between North and South Korea is on the rise and diplomats around the world clearly are concerned that the current rhetoric is far more dangerous than the normal sniping and military posturing that marks the everyday relationship between the nations.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a long-time U.S. envoy to the region, said the region remained a “tinderbox” after a visit earlier this week to the North Korean capital. “There is still “enormous tension, enormous mistrust” there, he said. That’s a worrisome assessment from a diplomat whose experience gives him a unique understanding of the region and whose views often view official U.S. policy in the area.
Richardson’s somber assessment is mirrored by a Chinese counterpart. “The current situation remains highly complicated and sensitive,” said a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry. That view, from North Korea’s sole major ally underscores the volatility in the region. Armed conflict is a possibility.
Both North and South Korea appear ready to engage in open combat. After a deadly series of events in recent months – including a naval skirmish, artillery fire from the north that killed several South Korean civilians and other provocations – the South has beefed up its forces and says it will retaliate unsparingly if attacked again. The response from the North was far from conciliatory. An official there threatened a “sacred” nuclear war if his country was attacked.
The possibility that North Korea might use nuclear weaponry is what worries military leaders and diplomats around the world. South Korea has superior firepower and technology, but North Korea is thought to have enough weaponized plutonium to make a few atomic bombs and has often expressed a willingness to employ them. Talks to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear armament program fell apart last year.
The international effort to lower the threat level in the Koreas will continue over the holiday. U.S. diplomats have urged their South Korean allies to act responsibly and to avoid provocation. China, it seems, has done the same with North Korea,. That’s a welcome stance. Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, is far too dependent on China to totally ignore such a request.
War, of course, will not resolve the conflict on the Korean peninsula. A sustained diplomatic effort is far more likely to reduce the current crisis and to produce a useful resolution of long-standing regional issues that have global implications.