GEORGE FREY
AP Business Writer
FRANKFURT – German investor confidence slipped for the sixth month in a row in March as expectations settled for a slow recovery in the next half-year, a closely watched survey showed Tuesday.
The economic sentiment index of the ZEW Institute showed investors’ March outlook for the next six months dropped to 44.5 points from 45.1 points in February. The survey is viewed by many as a barometer for the economic outlook in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy.
ZEW, or the Center for European Economic Research, based in Mannheim, said that despite the decline, the index remains well above its historical average of 27.2 points.
“German business activity has moved from the intensive care unit to the rehab,” ZEW President Wolfgang Franz said in the report. “But it is still far from full recovery.”
The ZEW said the German economy has seen some indications of recovery in industrial production and incoming orders.
Economic expectations for the 16 countries that share the euro currency decreased in March to 37.9 points from 40.2 points in February, while the indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone improved by 0.8 points and now stands at minus 61.3 points.
“The downward trend in the ZEW mirrors the expectations that the still strong impulses from the inventory cycle and the fiscal stimulus measures are gradually phasing out,” UniCredit Economist Alexander Koch said in a research note.
“The current level remains, however, above average in late winter, suggesting that no abrupt end of the economic recovery is in the cards.”
Koch said European countries’ budget concerns, particularly Greece’s, didn’t have much effect on German growth expectations. Furthermore, the weaker euro of recent weeks, should help German exports as European goods become cheaper to markets like the U.S.
Earlier Tuesday, the Federal Statistical Office revised its 2009 export figures slightly upward.
The Federal Statistical Office said that Europe’s biggest economy exported goods and services worth €808.2 billion (a little over $1.1 trillion) last year. It initially reported a figure of €803.2 billion last month.
The revision doesn’t change the fact that Germany lost its crown as the world’s leading exporter to China last year. Beijing has put its 2009 exports at more than $1.2 trillion.
Germany’s economy returned to growth last year after a deep recession. The statistical office said fourth-quarter exports were down only 6.4 percent on the year at €216.7 billion.
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