Times Free Press columnist Mark Wiedmer breaks down each region of this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament:
WEST
» Most important player: Gonzaga junior forward Rui Hachimura, a 6-foot-8 native of Toyama, Japan. Hachimura has averaged 20.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists while hitting 60 percent of his field-goal attempts this season, and he is a nightmare for either a man-to-man or zone defense. He moves well, blocks an average of 0.8 shot per game and can defend against opposing guards. The Zags are deep and balanced, but Hachimura is their best player.
» Best opening-round matchup: Nevada-Florida. Many have seen Nevada and the Martin twins, Cody and Caleb, as dark horses to reach the Final Four all season. In the Southeastern Conference tournament, Florida proved it can match up with almost anyone. The Wolf Pack taking on the Gators could be a classic.
» Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): Seeded eighth, Syracuse and its diabolical 2-3 zone defense are always capable of stunning a regional favorite – Michigan State a year ago and 2013 preseason No. 1-ranked Indiana are two good examples.
» Most likely round of 32 upset: No. 6 seed Buffalo over third-seeded Texas Tech.
» Best potential Sweet 16 game: Fourth-seeded Florida State against top-seeded Gonzaga. The Seminoles – who lost a fairly close Atlantic Coast Conference final to Duke last Saturday – have the skill and athletic ability to knock off the Zags.
» Projected regional final: Florida State versus Michigan
» Projected regional champ: Florida State
» Trivia: How much can a soaring basketball program lift a whole school? At the start of the 1997-98 school year, Gonzaga was $1 million in debt and had a freshman class numbering 550, one of the smallest in school history. In the 1998-99 season, though, the Zags reached the Elite Eight and the school decided to go all in on basketball. The school’s freshman class is more than 1,200 strong this year, and a recent fundraising campaign generated $250 million. At least with the Zags, you can’t say nothing good comes from sports.
SOUTH
» Most important player: Virginia wing De’Andre Hunter would seem the obvious choice because his absence from last year’s NCAA tournament was a major reason the Cavaliers became the first No. 1 seed in history to lose to a No. 16, but because this newspaper is based in Chattanooga, we’ll go with Tennessee senior forward Admiral Schofield. In three of the Volunteers’ biggest victories this season – versus Gonzaga in Phoenix, at Memphis and against Kentucky in the Southeastern Conference tourney semifinals – Schofield averaged 27 points a game. In three of their toughest defeats – at Kentucky and twice to Auburn – he averaged 11.3.
» Best opening-round matchup: No. 6 seed Villanova, last year’s national champion, against 11th-seeded St. Mary’s, which in last week’s West Coast Conference tournament final shocked Gonzaga, now the West Region’s No. 1 seed.
» Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): Oregon. Nike U supposedly made the field only by surprising Washington in the Pac-12 title game, but the Ducks reached the Final Four two years ago, and if they get past plodding Wisconsin in the opening round, they might also be able to surprise the Kansas State-UC Irvine winner in the round of 32.
» Most likely round-of-32 upset: The Villanova-St. Mary’s winner over No. 3 seed Purdue, which lost to Minnesota twice in its past three games and also lost this season to Notre Dame and Texas, neither of which is in the NCAA tourney.
» Best potential Sweet 16 game: If the seeds hold, Virginia-Kansas State could become a “first one to 50 wins” slugfest because Virginia led the NCAA in scoring defense with 55.1 points allowed per game and the Wildcats were third at 59.2.
» Projected regional final: Tennessee vs. Virginia
» Projected regional champ: Tennessee
» Trivia: Kansas State, Tennessee and Virginia all were in the South a year ago. Kansas State made it to the regional final in Atlanta before falling to Loyola-Chicago. Both Tennessee and Virginia were bounced the opening weekend. All three surely hope history doesn’t repeat.
MIDWEST
» Most important player: North Carolina freshman point guard Coby White. When White is good (34 points against Syracuse, 33 points at Miami, 28 points at Clemson), he is very, very good, as are the Tar Heels. When he’s off (eight points and four turnovers against Kentucky, four points and four turnovers against Louisville, 11 points and three turnovers against Duke in the Atlantic Coast Conference semifinals), North Carolina can struggle. If White’s right, the Heels’ opponents could be on their heels.
» Best opening-round matchup: With Wofford probably overseeded at No. 7 and Seton Hall likely underseeded at No. 10, the Terriers and Pirates could go down to the wire.
» Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): There’s a reason why New Mexico State is 30-4, has won 19 straight games and lost by only three points to Kansas on a neutral court in early December, when the Jayhawks still had their full roster: The Aggies are pretty darn good. SEC champion Auburn will have had scant time to recover from a grueling league tourney and, compared to New Mexico State, must make a bigger adjustment to the altitude of Salt Lake City, so the Aggies could shock not only the Tigers but also a far less formidable Kansas in the round of 32.
» Most likely round-of-32 upset: No. 6 seed Iowa State over No. 3 seed Houston.
» Best potential Sweet 16 game: If the seeds hold, North Carolina versus Kansas in Kansas City. Not fair, but it would definitely give the Jayhawks a puncher’s chance.
» Projected regional final: Kentucky versus North Carolina
» Projected regional champ: North Carolina
» Trivia: Each of coach Roy Williams’ three national championship squads at North Carolina (2005, ’09, ’17) won 27 games entering the NCAA tournament and had watched rival Duke win the ACC tourney that year. This season’s Tar Heels are 27-6 and watched the Blue Devils win the ACC last week.
EAST
» Most important player: Zion Williamson. The Duke man-child isn’t just the most important player of this tournament, he just might be the best player in an NCAA tournament since the late 1960s, when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, then known as Lew Alcindor, was so dominant for UCLA that the dunk was outlawed in a failed attempt to level the playing field, so to speak. Williamson won’t win three NCAA titles in three years as Alcindor did for UCLA for two reasons: 1) He’ll be in the NBA after one season; 2) Freshmen were ineligible in Alcindor’s day so he, mathematically, could only win the three titles he did (’67, ’68, ’69). Williamson, though, is that dominant.
» Best opening-round matchup: For outside drama as much as inside-the-lines parity, Louisville-Minnesota is made-for-TMZ TV, what with Richard Pitino coaching Minnesota’s Golden Gophers against the school that fired his father for alleged NCAA violations.
» Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): Belmont. If the Bruins play the way they did against Temple in Tuesday’s First Four play-in game, the Nashville program can beat Maryland and scare the LSU-Yale winner.
» Most likely round-of-32 upset: None. The better seed should be a huge favorite in all eight games.
» Best potential Sweet 16 game: A Duke-Virginia Tech rematch because the Hokies beat the Blue Devils late in the regular season, though Duke freshman phenom Williamson didn’t play that day.
» Projected regional final: Michigan State versus Duke
» Projected regional champ: Duke
» Trivia: If Duke knocks off Michigan State in the regional final, it won’t be the first time the Blue Devils have broken the Spartans’ hearts deep in the tournament. The Dookies beat Sparty in the 1999 Final Four, the 2014 Sweet 16 and the 2015 Final Four.
