Jay GreesonNFL picks
OK, earlier in the year, I wrote that a good gambling tidbit would be taking the Patriots every time they were favored by 10 points or fewer.
If you did that, you went 5-5 this year. Not sure that is a defining statement to anything beyond the silliness of trying to find reason and certainty in gambling.
Well, I believe in desperate times, desperate measures are needed. And, despite neither being desperate or timely, this feels like a time we turn to an old standby for guidance.
Gang, we are going to fashion our NFL picks today with a visor tip to the most underrated comedy movie of my lifetime – “Raising Arizona.” Deal? Deal.
We’re going to pick every playoff game because, well as H.I. McDunnough told his young ‘un when they returned to the doublewide, “And this here’s the TV. Two hours a day, either educational or football, so you don’t ruin your appreciation of the finer things.”
Patriots minus-5 over Tennessee. “There’s what’s right and there’s what’s right and never the twain shall meet.” C’mon gang. Brady and Belichick. At home. In the playoffs. PUH-lease. It’s going to end at some point, and who knows, maybe that point is this weekend. But not unlike Jason Voorhees, until they wheel his corpse out, I’m not picking against them. Period. And can we please remember that as unbelievable as he was during the regular season, this will be Ryan Tannehill’s first playoff start ever. Brady? This will be his 41st postseason start, so yes, he’s midway through a third extra season of playoff games. As for any man who wants to lock me up because I am going to die on the Patriots hill, well, “You tell him, I think he’s a damn fool, Ed. You tell him I said so – H.I. McDonnough. If he wants to discuss it, he knows where to find me: in the Maricopa County Maximum Security Correctional Facility For Men State Farm, Road Number 31, Tempe, Arizona! I’ll be waitin’! I’ll be waiting.” (Interesting side note: The over is – “You hear that, we’re using code names” – 44 and did you know that a) the over has hit nine times in 10 Titans games with Tannehill as the starter, and b) the over is 7-1-1 in Pats home playoff games since 2013. Over? Yes, please.)
Seattle minus-1.5 over Philadelphia. “Do these blow up into funny shapes and all?” “Well, no. Unless round is funny.” That’s my thought on all the hand-wringing and chatter from national folks who insist that a team with a worse record is hosting a playoff game. Get over it already. The rules were in place before the season. The biggest story for each offense will be about the names not on the field. Still, I think Russell Wilson has enough to get through a road test that will be tougher than most expect.
Saints-Vikings over 49. “Edwina’s insides were a rocky place where my seed could find no purchase.” That was the Saints defense before the injuries. Now? Well, the Vikings weapons will get them north of 24. But I think the Saints win, which pushes us over. This total has gone up all week, opening at 46 and growing to 49. (It likely will move north of 50 before kickoff.) Why, you may wonder? Well, Drew Brees is prominently involved, and look at all the weapons. And don’t you know that Brees looks over at Michael Thomas and in his best Edwina McDunnough voice says, “I love him so much.”
Buffalo plus-3 over Houston. Man I wavered on this game about as many times this week as UT fans cursed Jarrett Guarantano during the first three quarters of the Gator Bowl. And this pick hinges a lot on believing Houston No. 2 wide out Will Fuller will not be a factor, because the Texans offense is a handful when Fuller is on the field and full speed. (With Fuller, Texans average more than 25 points per game; without Fuller, the Texans average fewer than 20. Science.) If Fuller is unable to go – and he’s listed as doubtful – that means the Bills’ shutdown corner TreDarious White and the rest of the secondary can focus on DeAndre Hopkins. So, keep an eye on word about Fuller. “All right, ya hayseeds, it’s a stick-up. Everybody freeze. Everybody down on the ground.” “Well, which is it, young feller? You want I should freeze or get down on the ground? Mean to say, if’n I freeze, I can’t rightly drop. And if’n I drop, I’m a-gonna be in motion. You see? Shut up!”
The strengths of these teams are even, but Buffalo’s weaknesses are better than the Texans’ shortcomings.
2019 NFL picks record: 58-35-3 (62.4 percent) against the spread
2019 playoff picks: 0-0
Good luck and let’s roll.
From a slew of you (paraphrased mind you)
What did you think about UT’s bowl win?
(and more specifically)
Jay, does a good QB clean this mess up or is there a bigger problem?
Gang
First, great interaction on Twitter last night with the Big Orange among you. I need to do a better job of letting folks know when I’m going to be binge-tweeting an event like that.