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Politics mixes with science as states turn to coronavirus models

In this Monday, April 6, 2020, photo, a report delivered to the city of Austin, Texas, on COVID-19 health care demand is photographed in Frederick, Md. The latest statistical models forecast fewer deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic before August. But there's huge uncertainty in these models because health officials are still trying to get a handle on how the virus acts, how carefully people stick with social distancing and other restrictions, and treatment of the disease. (AP Photo/Jon Elswick)
In this Monday, April 6, 2020, photo, a report delivered to the city of Austin, Texas, on COVID-19 health care demand is photographed in Frederick, Md. The latest statistical models forecast fewer deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic before August. But there's huge uncertainty in these models because health officials are still trying to get a handle on how the virus acts, how carefully people stick with social distancing and other restrictions, and treatment of the disease. (AP Photo/Jon Elswick)

By MICHAEL KUNZELMAN / Associated Press 6 min read

State leaders are relying on a hodgepodge of statistical models with wide-ranging numbers to guide their paths through the deadly coronavirus emergency and make critical decisions, such as shutting down businesses and filling their inventory of medical supplies.

During hurricane season, coastal states can trust the same set of computer models to warn of a storm’s track. During this pandemic, there is no uniform consensus to predict the toll and direction of the virus that is tearing through communities around the country.

With little agreed-upon information, governors and local officials are basically creating do-it-yourself sources of information with their own officials and universities.

The models have resulted in conflict in several locations.

About 75 protesters on Thursday called on Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine to reopen businesses and questioned the models used by his health director to continue the state’s shelter-at-home order. Critics have denounced an Iowa Health Department a matrix as arbitrarily devised and being used by the governor to rationalize her decision to not issue a stay-at-home order.