Fab 4 picks (plus 1)
We’re back. Picking games against the spread, and doing it for your entertainment purposes only.
(Side note: We know a couple of guys who risk more than entertainment vouchers on college football action. Occasionally, that is. We also have been told that some local entertainment brokers pay attention to these picks. That’s what happens when you 60 percent against the spread over six years. So you know.)
We’ve had some success; but we feel obligated to mention that past performance does not guarantee future entertainment. Deal? Deal.
Let’s do it.
Alabama minus-7 over Florida State. Yes, as regulars around these parts know, we’ll always buy the half on lines that are 7 and 3. Openers are dicey. What do we really know about these teams? So in week one, the trust factor carries supreme weight. Want to know what supports trust. Facts. Alabama coach Nick Saban is unbeaten in openers with the Tide. He’s unbeaten against former assistants. With Alabama, Saban has been in five of these big-time openers, and three of those were against top-10 opponents. All of them were double-digit Alabama wins.
Vandy minus-3 at MTSU. ESPN’s power index – a metric based mathematical formula – has this as Vandy as a 10-point favorite. Fundamental rule: When the math guys have a spread of a touchdown more than Vegas, that’s an entertaining risk worth making. For you non-metric people: Vandy has 16 starters back. Running back Ralph Webb is going to go nuts and for the Commodores to go bowling, this is really a must-win.
Boston College minus-3 Northern Illinois. OK, this is year five for Steve Addazio. He is a very forgettable 24-27, including a disastrous 3-9 in the 2015 season. This is an important run and it starts this week, considering the next three games in September are Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson. BC has 15 starters back, including defensive end/linebacker Harold Landry, who set the school record with 16.5 sacks last year. Buy the half to be sure, but even as a road favorite on Friday night, the Eagles are the play.
Cal plus-12 at UNC. We normally go with the host teams when opponents are making cross-country trips. But the points and the numbers – UNC lost every meaningful piece of its offense last year – point to the underdog. Want to trust in more facts? Larry Fedora’s UNC team is 0-5 against the number in his last five openers. Not good.
Texas minus-18 over Maryland. We were tempted by the over/under here, but this big number is not big enough. Consider: This is the debut of Tom Herman and his high-octane offense. There will be a lot of emotion around the state of Texas this weekend. The Longhorns return 10 defensive starters. This screams 52-10.
Last season: 62-44 (57.4 percent)
All-time (since 2011): 336-219-4 (60.5 percent)
Former East Hamiltom standout Tre Herndon has made 25 consecutive starts at cornerback for Vanderbilt entering his senior season.SEC items of interest
It’s game week across the country. That’s a good thing.
Florida has to add to its suspension list. That’s a bad thing (if you are a Gators fan, that is).
Either way college football is back, and we’re all better of for it. Let’s get to this.
First down. Alabama-USC. It’s a match-up of blue bloods through history and in the moment. No. 1 vs. No. 3. As you may know it’s the most prolific season-opener ever in terms of preseason rankings. Good times. This is the rare time that the reward outweighs the risk. Follow along. The winner of Alabama-FSU has a huge bargaining chip in the committee’s eyes. A chip that – at least last year when THE Ohio State rolled Oklahoma – could mean more than a conference title. Giddy-up.
Second down. Florida has 10 guys suspended; Michigan has to replace 10 defensive starters who are trying to make NFL rosters. Hey, symmetry. So, second-and-10, right? Only if Feleipe Franks, the first-time starting quarterback for the Gators, wore No. 10. Alas, he wears 13. How Florida coach Jim McElwaine uses Franks’ multifaceted skills will be way more impactful than the timing of the announcement or when Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh released his roster.
Third down. Statements or escapes. That’s the question for a lot of SEC teams this weekend. In the statement win categories, we’ll take Auburn, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri and Vandy. As for the closer than expected – and remove the two games above and the LSU-BYU and the UCLA-Texas A&M games – and the potential scare factor for a Georgia or a Kentucky is high, even as double-digit favorites.
Fourth down. Last down for the last – and certainly not least important – game on the SEC schedule this weekend. Tennessee and Georgia Tech has a lot of story lines. Start with Tech breaking in a new quarterback and losing its leading returning rusher. Add in Tennessee breaking in a new quarterback, losing its middle linebacker to a knee injury and suspending its starting left tackle. The importance of this game for Butch Jones and the momentum of a Vols team dealing with a lot of unknowns is hard to overstate. Those types of stakes generally make for exciting football. Giddy-up.
FILE – In this Jan 30, 2017, file photo, Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas (4) plays in the team’s NBA basketball game against the Detroit Pistons in Boston. Thomas believes he will fully recover from a right hip injury that has threatened to void his recent trade to Cleveland. Thomas, who was dealt by the Celtics to the Cavaliers last week for star Kyrie Irving, told ESPN he has made progress in his recovery. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File) Deal completed
With a 2020 second-rounder, the Celtics and Cavaliers completed the mega-swap that included the first deal with two 25-plus-point scorers in NBA history and potentially next year’s No. 1 overall pick.
That’s a lot of moving pieces and parts. (Parts is parts, after all.) So, with a little-to-nothing add-on to complete the trade, what do you think that tells us.
For our view, it means the Cavaliers were not going to take back Kyrie Irving and they were not going to give back that pick. It also meant that the Celtics wisely were not parting with either of their last two first-rounders. (It also may have dawned on everyone involved that a) Boston overpaid for Kyrie and b) Cleveland knew they were not going to get anything close to that kind of return, even if Isaiah Thomas is sidelined for half the season.)
So with that complete, we may not have the drama about who is going to win the NBA title, but we do have the intrigue that will be every time the Cavs and Celtics play, indulging the season opener.
We also have sure-fire intriguing date in the Eastern Conference Finals. Also, we have the intrigue about what the Cavaliers may do with that bevy of assets they acquired.
What if they dealt that No. 1 to New Orleans for Boogie Cousins?
What if they turned that No. 1 – which is going to be a stud duck because the Nets stink on ice – into two more perimeter defenders and surrounded LeBron with some names and pieces to make a run at the Warriors.
This and that
– Thanks to former Chief Fred Fletcher for his time yesterday that led me to this column on new police chief David Roddy.
– This is not good news for Johnny Football fans. The CFL’s Hamilton Tiger-Cats passed on Johnny Manziel, saying he had too many red flags. That’s the same team that earlier this week hired Art Bleepin’ Briles for crying out loud, and Johnny Manziel has too many red flags. Egad.
– One of the great staples of the TFP football coverage is David Paschall’s weekly SEC picks. Here’s today’s season opener.
– Braves swept a doubleheader and the Dodgers lost their fourth straight game (which is their longest losing streak of the season). Somewhere cats and dogs are playing together.
– OK, we hate inter web slideshows. They are simply ridiculous. Fair warning, this is a slideshow. But it’s the CBSsports crew looking which NFL recognizable veteran is in the most danger of being cut this week as the NFL teams trim their roster down to 53.
– Vontaze Burfict has his suspension reduced to three games. Man, he’s a good dude. In Hades.
– Speaking of NFL suspension hearings, we should get news on running back Ezekiel Elliott, who is appealing his six-game suspension. If that gets lowered or even wiped away, cagey fantasy owners like Wells Guthrie who reached early for Elliott, the star Dallas running back who likely would have been a top three overall pick without the suspension, will be quite happy.
Today’s question
Rollie Massimino died. The legendary Villanova coach was 82.
True or false on a Thursday, Massimino’s win over Georgetown in the 1985 title game was the biggest upset in college basketball history.
On this day 20 years ago, Princess Dianna died in a car crash.
True or false, you remember where you were when news hit that Princess Di had died.
Rocky Marciano died on this day in 1969.
Chris Tucker – man that dude fell off the comedy planet – is 46 today. And Richard Gere was born on this day. He is 68 years old.
Rushmore of Richard Gere movies. Go, and remember the mailbag.
(And happy college football everybody.)