Fab 4 (with some extras) picks
Boston College minus-7 over UConn and under the 39. Buy the half on the game line off course, and trust the numbers. BC averages 18.2 points per game; UConn averages 16.5. In fact, since the middle of September, the five of the six games to exceed the total involving either of these teams had nationally-ranked offenses like Houston, Clemson, Louisville and FSU on the other side. As for the Eagles, they are two wins from bowl qualification, and have played way better competition across all platforms. This screams a 21-6 final and that would be highly entertaining.
Texas-San Antonio plus-28 over Texas A&M. OK, we got burned last week trying to find the four-TD underdog who would catch a sleep-walking foe. (Western Kentucky ‘slept-walked’ to a huge win over North Texas with four of its six touchdowns coming on plays that exceeded 20 yards.) We’re willing to push our entertainment vouchers again this weekend behind UTSA as a 28-point, check-cashing, underdog for the following reasons: a) It’s a 11 a.m. kick in College Station, which begs for a sleepy start from players and fans alike; b) A&M still has limitations at quarterback after Trevor Knight was lost for the season earlier this month; c) the Road Runners – yes, UTSA is the Road Runners, and that could be a reason all to itself – are coached by former LSU assistant Frank Wilson, who will be very familiar with A&M defensive coordinator John Chavis’ style; and d) you really have to wonder after the back-to-back painful and season-crushing SEC losses to the two Mississippi schools that dropped A&M from No. 4 in the first playoff rankings to an after thought, how motivated this bunch will be. Will A&M win? Certainly. But this really feels like a 31-17 final right?
Vandy-Ole Miss under the 51. Vandy has allowed 13 points to each of the SEC teams to visit Nashville. Ole Miss has a back-up quarterback making his second start, and no matter how talented Shae Patterson will be in the long run, he as now spent the last week hearing how great he is and given a very talented defensive staff with a stout defense a week’s worth of film to see what he does well and what he doesn’t. Each team needs a win for its postseason resume. The 5-5 Rebels would punch their ticket; the 4-6 ‘Dores would too believe it or not since there are going to be several 5-7 teams filling the 80 bowl slots. And since the tiebreaker among 5-7 teams is the academic grading scale of the APR, well, just know that Vandy is the Alabama of APR. Either way this has all the makings of 24-14.
UCF plus-2 over Tulsa. Want to know the hottest coaching name in the country of whom most fans are unaware? How about UCF first-year coach Scott Frost, who has turned an 0-12 team in 2015 into a bowl-eligible 6-4 squad this season. Now, add to that what has happened with the Oregon offense since he left his role as the OC with the Ducks from last year: Oregon was 9-4 last year and 3-7 this year and the high-flying Ducks went from averaging 43.0 points and 538.2 yards points last year to 37.1 points and 494 yards this year, despite playing almost exclusively from behind. Frost has redirected the Knights in one season, and getting points at home in what could be an exclamation point win is overly generous. And entertaining.
Miami minus-3 over NC State. The Hurricanes are simply better, even on the road. Better at quarterback. More athletic on the perimeter. More motivated. Buy the half to make sure, but it’s hard to find a matchup that leans toward NC State here.
Texas Tech minus-3 over Iowa State. Buy the half of course. Texas Tech is floundering, but this is another game that seems like the price is more than fair, especially when gauging the difference between the also-rans of the Big 12 like Tech and the dregs like Iowa State and Kansas. Defensively, Texas Tech is terrible, but the Red Raiders still whipped Kansas by 36; Iowa State escaped Kansas last week by a touchdown for the Cyclones first conference win of the season. You get the picture.
Last week: 3-3 against the spread (50 percent)
This season: 37-28 against the spread (56.9 percent)
Running back Leonard Fournette and the rest of the LSU Tigers stand in the way of the Florida Gators and a spot in next month’s SEC title game against Alabama. The Gators play their rescheduled game against LSU on Saturday afternoon at Death Valley.SEC items of interest
Rescheduled, relocated and reloaded. LSU hosts Florida in the best, most meaningful game of the weekend. It also will not be on CBS, and that makes plenty of sense because this may also may be the strangest build-up to a game in modern SEC history. It was rescheduled because of a hurricane. It generated a monster riff between the two ADs and LSU AD Joe Alleva and the league office. The point spread has gone from close to pick ’em top LSU minus-13, in large part because the game was moved to Baton Rouge and in larger part because Leonard Fournette, who would have missed the originally scheduled game, is back. The intensity will be fun between two of the more talented defenses not-named-Alabama in the league.
East power play. The Florida-LSU game kicks off at 1 p.m. The Tennessee-Missouri game kicks off at 3:30. If Florida wins, the SEC East is closed and the Gators are headed to Atlanta for a beating from Alabama. If LSU wins, Tennessee has to beat Mizzou on Saturday and Vandy next week to head to Atlanta for a beating from Alabama. Man, next to UT fans, want to know who is cheering the loudest for LSU in the early game? That would be the folks who want Coach Ed Oregron to be the full-time boss. A win Saturday would be a huge boost for his resume considering the Tigers only loss under Coach O was a 10-0 setback to Alabama, an outcome that looks better by the week since Alabama is crushing people. Next on the list wearing LSU hats would CBS executives who are broadcasting the UT-Missouri game. Yep, without the UT-Mizzou game without some division drama will be somewhere between “Weekend at Bernie’s II” and “Caddyshack 2” on the entertainment scale.
Fade-out game. Arkansas and Mississippi State are limping to the finish. It happens in the rugged SEC West where every conference week is a chore and anyone of them could turn into a whitewash – like LSU’s blitzing of the Hogs and Alabama’s bombing of the Dogs last week. Arkansas has six wins and is bowl eligible. Mississippi State is 4-6 and needs wins Saturday and in next week’s Egg Bowl to get into the postseason. Maybe that motivation will be the key; or maybe it will be an Arkansas run defense that couldn’t stop a runny nose with Mucinex.
Come get your money. A lot of games around the league will have fans thinking monster mismatches. It’s that time of the year in the SEC – the second bye week for all intent and purposes when the power players write big checks for big scores against lesser-known programs. Texas A&M-UTSA, Auburn-Alabama A&M, Georgia-Louisiana LaFayette, Kentucky-Austin Peay, South Carolina-Western Carolina, Alabama-UTC. Wait, strike Bama off that list because they look like a mismatch against everyone. But if we know anything about college football, there will be at least one if not more early score that raises eyebrows around the league. It happens every year around this time, and one of these games will go down to the wire and scare the home folks to death.
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello delivers during first-inning baseball game action against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto, Friday, Sept. 9, 2016. (Peter Power/The Canadian Press via AP) Baseball stuff
OK, that got lengthy. Sorry. Or not.
Here are a couple of interesting baseball stories that caught our eye in between football research this morning.
First the ownership of the Chicago Cubs is trying to reach out to Steve Bartman with hopes of closing the loop on the Cubs’ fan who carried a large burden since the 2003 NLCS.
Good for them.
Also of note, the Cy Youngs were handed out Wednesday, and Rick Porcello won in the AL and Max Scherzer ran away from the field in the NL.
Of note on this was the fact that Justin Verlander, the Detroit ace who finished second, was not on the ballot at all for at least two Tampa Bay area voters, and that oversight could very well have cost Verlander the award.
It was something his girlfriend – supermodel Kate Upton – was not best pleased about on social media. In fact her exact Tweet was, “Hey MLB I thought I was the only person allowed to F$@% Justin Verlander?! What 2 writers didn’t have him on their ballot?” (Except she spelled out the key word in her rant.)
Here’s an interesting look at the topic from Fox Sports baseball ace Ken Rosenthal, but can we all just kind of hope and pray we get to a place where the moms and dads and significant others start realizing that it’s never a good look to take that to the Twitter?
Please.
This and that
– Duck Dynasty is coming to an end after five years. So it goes.
– Here’s some details of the PGA players and their significant others playing Whiffle Ball. Side note: For some reason, it appears very attractive women are attracted to golfers. Side note, II: Whiffle Ball is way, Way, WAY underrated.
– Because of the timing of tonight’s Louisville game, it can not be part of the picks. If you are looking for an unofficial pick, here’s a thought that Louisville has a lot to prove tonight and will try to score 60.
Today’s question
We have a mailbag spot or two open. Whatcha’ got?
As for the Rushmore, Martin Scorsese turns 74 today.
First, what is the Rushmore of best directors of the last 40 years? Second, what makes the Rushmore of best Scorsese films, and know there are only three spots open because Goodfellas is there, and that’s non-negotiable.
Go.