In an election cycle where candidates tout “grass-roots efforts” and anti-incumbent ideas, the candidate with the most money got the most votes 75 percent of the time in July 20 primary elections for state House and Senate.
In 53 contested primaries in the Georgia House, the candidate who raised the most won or led 41 times, according to Chattanooga Times Free Press calculations based on data from the State Ethics Commission.
In the state Senate, the candidates with deeper pockets won or led 15 of 20 contested primaries. Some were incumbents and some were challengers. Most incumbents in the House and Senate were not even challenged.
“Especially at the local level, that’s exactly the way it works,” said Carl Cavalli, a professor of political science at North Georgia College and State University in Dahlonega.
Social media and grass-roots campaigns can be a small “leveler” for political Davids trying to topple well-funded Goliaths, Cavalli said, but for the most part, cash and incumbency are king.
“That’s the biggest sucker bet you can take, to pick all of the incumbents every time,” the professor said. “You’re going to win a lot.”
Based on the June 30 campaign finance reports, Senate winners raised between $671,000 and $5,700. House winners spent between $250 and $311,000.
In some of the House races, the dollars raised greatly outnumbered the voters. In the 179th District on the Georgia coast, where the incumbent wasn’t seeking re-election, candidate Bill Keim raised $192,000 but received only 657 votes in a losing effort. Keim’s fundraising ratio leads both houses at $292 for each vote.
Money-votes connectionName Votes Amount raised Amount per voteHouse District 3 (Republican)* Tom Weldon 2,211 $45,625 $20.64Tom Dooley 1,424 $1,000 70 centsHouse District 4 (Republican)* Roger Williams 1,922 $40,925 $21.29Dennis Mock 1,746 $250 14 centsHouse District 6 (Republican)* Tom Dickson 1,828 $23,200 $12.69Mike Cowan 1,745 $400 23 cents*Won primarySource: Georgia Ethics Commission
In Northwest Georgia, Sen. Jeff Mullis, R-Chickamauga, ranks 10th in the Senate for fundraising in contested races with $113,203 raised.
New state Sens. Charlie Bethel, R-Dalton, and Barry Loudermilk, R-Cassville, ranked 25th and 26th respectively, with about $30,000 each. Mullis raised $19.32 for each vote he received, compared with $4.50 and $3.44 for Bethel and Loudermilk.
On the House side, Tom Weldon, R-Ringgold, outraised his opponent Tom Dooley by $45,000 to $1,000 and ranked 15th overall among reporting contested House candidates.
Tom Dickson, R-Cohutta, ranked 40th with $23,200 raised and Roger Williams, R-Dalton, ranked 21st with $40,925.
Tom Hunter, a professor of political science at the University of West Georgia, said so-called “grass-roots” campaigns “matter much less than people think.”
He cited studies indicating that money and incumbency actually play bigger roles than they used to.
“I really think that both incumbency and money are the two big factors in winning elections,” he said.