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UT economist: Reopening businesses won’t help if people don’t feel comfortable leaving homes

Pedestrians are reflected in a window showing barstools put up on a table of a bar closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic Tuesday, April 21, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn. Some of Tennessee's biggest cities are not making promises about starting to reopen their economies by Gov. Bill Lee's goal of May 1, saying they are going to let data, not dates, dictate their roll-outs. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Pedestrians are reflected in a window showing barstools put up on a table of a bar closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic Tuesday, April 21, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn. Some of Tennessee's biggest cities are not making promises about starting to reopen their economies by Gov. Bill Lee's goal of May 1, saying they are going to let data, not dates, dictate their roll-outs. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey) Pedestrians are reflected in a window showing barstools put up on a table of a bar closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic Tuesday, April 21, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn. Some of Tennessee's biggest cities are not making promises about starting to reopen their economies by Gov. Bill Lee's goal of May 1, saying they are going to let data, not dates, dictate their roll-outs. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

As states prepare to reopen their economies, much of the focus lies on the risk of a COVID-19 resurgence. But a University of Tennessee economist warns that consumer confidence is another important factor that leaders should consider.

“If people don’t feel comfortable leaving their houses, and we don’t actually get any economic activity out of the reopening process, then we’re intensifying the economic crisis,” said Marianne Wanamaker, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tennessee and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Wanamaker said the importance of consumer confidence reinforces the need for a community testing strategy that’s not just focused on finding sick people.

“One of the things that economists have been saying all along is that the purpose of test and trace is not just to point out where the problems are, but also to point out where they are not, and to reassure consumers that it is safe to leave your house,” she said.

Since Hamilton County wasn’t an initial COVID-19 hotspot, much of the state’s testing materials were directed to other cities, such as Nashville and Memphis. The county only recently began widespread community testing and testing people without symptoms.