NFL trust factors
OK, the bottom is trying to win. The top is trying not to lose.
We enter the penultimate week of the regular season in the NFL knowing very little.
What do we know? Glad you asked.
We know being healthy is more important than being good right now.
We know that balance – be it run/pass or offense/defense – is paramount and coveted.
We know quarterbacks you can trust come playoff time are invaluable, and right now of the teams who are currently holding a playoff spot, playoff-trustworthy QBs are few and far between.
Check out the standings as of right now (with their QB’s trust rating of 1-to-5 in parenthesis):
AFC
1. Kansas City (2, because Mahomes will be making his first postseason trip; could be higher)
2. Houston (Read above and put Watson’s name in for Mahomes)
3. New England (5, as in the number of rings Mr. Brady if your nasty has, but the last two weeks it has looked more like a 2)
4. Pittsburgh (4, Big Ben has two titles, yes, but Big Ben would as the 4 seed need to win two road games and Big Ben has been more than a Little Shaky outside the Steel City)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (3, and yes it could be higher because Rivers has been great, but, what postseason pedigree does Phil have to speak of through the years?)
6. Baltimore (1, and while Lamar Jackson is 4-1 as a starter, how many Vegas sharps are salivating at betting on Belichick making Jackson throw in round one in 12 degree Foxboro in January?)
NFC
1. New Orleans (5, Brees has a ring and has weapons and if the path to Atlanta goes through the Big Easy, well, that will be nothing but dome trips for the Saints and the term Big Easy seems like an apt description for New Orleans’ playoff push in that case.)
2. Los Angeles (2, Goff has been brutal the last three weeks and Sean McVay best get in the lab and get this fixed.)
3. Chicago (1, Mitchell Trubisky? Yep, he’s the 1.)
4. Dallas (2, I’m not as high on Dak Prescott as most. He’s an average passer who has completed 66 percent of his passes with an amazingly high screen and check down rate, plus he takes too many sacks – he’s been sacked 51 times this year yes 51 – and fumbles too often.)
5. Seattle (4, and that may be a little high for Russell Wilson, who has fewer weapons on the perimeter than in previous years but is blessed with a running game that is committed and competent.)
6. Minnesota (2, sorry Kirk Cousins believers, you have that many toys and a defense that talented and you are only 7-6-1 and fighting for the final spot in a top-heavy NFC, that’s on the QB. Period.)
So that’s four total QBs with a history of playoff success and a run that gives you reason to feel like you can trust them.
And chief among them is Brady and his amazingly fading Patriots, who looked old and slow, especially on the perimeter – and when did all the partying and bulldozing catch-up with Gronk? – in the last two weeks.
Yes, the reports of the Patriots demise are greatly overblown. They always are, be them in September or December, but these numbers do not look promising.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17), left, celebrates with teammates after a successful defensive play near the end of the second half of an NFL football game against Tennessee Titans at Wembley stadium in London, Sunday, Oct. 21, 2018. Los Angeles Chargers won the match 20-19. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)NFL Power poll
New Orleans (12-2). OK, in the amazing realm of the known/unknown is the conversation quagmire of Cam Newton. Forget the postgame stuff. Throw out the physical gifts. Dude has missed throws – meaningful from must-have throws – that I’m pretty sure I could make. And the clock management issues or the inability to read and recognize pressures. Yes, this is about the Saints and their balance and excellence, but we know that, and the more interesting chats are about the unknown, right? What is Cam Newton’s legacy? Because man, even as a Newton fan and occasional Cam-apologist, he is looking more and more like the best physical specimen to ever play quarterback who with each passing year has not progressed in learning how to play quarterback.
Kansas City (11-3). Yes, the Chargers grabbed a monster win last Thursday and have the same record. But the Chiefs have the easier route to the No. 1 seed and that has to count for something right? We also know that the least trustworthy of these ‘elite’ teams in truth likely is the Chiefs with Andy Reid, who is 194-123-1 (61.2 percent) in the regular season and 11-13 with one Super Bowl appearance in 13 postseason trips, and Patty Mahomes, who will be making his first postseason trip.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-3). You can make this a 2B if you like, and in some ways the Chargers are the second-most-trustworthy team in the league behind the Saints right now. Winning in K.C. – without Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen for more than half the game – was impressive. Hard not to want Philip Rivers to have a postseason moment in the sun, you know.
Chicago (10-4). Yep, the Bears jumped the Rams and the Pats. In fact, the Bears defense may be the most known quantity in the NFL. Possibly the second-most known fact in the NFL is the phrase “Defense travels” is lazy analysis and a cliche all-timer than makes my ears bleed. Side stat: Khalil Mack has 12.5 sacks, including the Mack Back Sack against Aaron Rodgers; Mack’s former team, the Raiders. have 11 sacks total. (Psst and defense travels.)
Los Angeles (11-3). Yes, you are what your record says you are, but I know this: 1-7 – Jared Goff’s TD-to-Int ratio over the last three games – is a more telling number than 11-3 right now. And if Todd Gurley’s not 100 percent – remember from above, we know being great is not as important as being healthy this time of year – well that vaunted Rams offense is nowhere near as impressive.
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (97) prepares to cause a fumble against Arizona Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen (3) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 16, 2018, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)Powerless
Detroit (5-9). Man, we talk all the time about situation and placement. It also makes you wonder how thankful Eli is for Archie taking the hard stance on draft day against San Diego. (Yes, Philip Rivers has had a very similar career in the place that wanted Manning in 2004 but got Rivers. That’s a talk for another time.) Here’s the career-changing point of locale being a monster piece of the puzzle. Is Matt Stafford a better or worse quarterback than Eli Manning, who has two Super Bowls and is headed to the Hall because he played with two teams that got hot at the right time, had amazing pass rushers who got to Brady without blitzing and David Tyree made a miracle catch? But who is a better quarterback, Stafford or Eli? Makes you wonder right? Bet it makes Matt Stafford wonder too.
New York Jets (4-10). Another team with a rookie QB, but unlike Josh Allen in Arizona, Jets QB1 Sam Darnold has no pieces around him. Job Numero Uno por Chorros de la ciudad de Nueva York is to find Young Slingin’ Sammy D some weapons. Like pronto muchachos.
San Francisco (4-10). We know that Nick Mullens’ future will be interesting to follow. Dude has been better than most people realize – he’s 3-3 as a starter for the 4-10 49ers – and is exceedingly cheap for a back-up QB you trust. He is signed through 2019 and has a cap hit of $570,000 next season. So, in the same general approach of how Hank and Tommy Aaron are MLB’s all-time leaders in homers for brothers – Hank had 755; Tommy had 13 and the 768 is followed by the DiMaggios’ 573 – the 49ers will have a QB cap hit for Mullen and Jimmy GQ of 20,570,000. Bargains.
Jacksonville (4-10). Stop all this talk about how good the Jags defense is. Stop it now. You can say how talented the Jags defense is but how good? No thanks. Good and potentially great NFL defenses do not lose games to Josh Allen, twice to Marcus Mariota and ever to someone named Josh Johnson, who led the Redskins to a W Sunday. This bunch has quit. Period. (And considering the rise up the draft board, maybe that’s not the worse thing ever.)
Oakland (3-11). In the world of NFL unknowns, what Jon Gruden will address with his three first-rounders next spring is up there. Of course there was chatter about whether Gruden the QB whisperer was going to move on from Derek Carr, but since the first week of October, Carr has a QB rating of 100.1 and has not thrown an interception in those nine games. That’s 294 throws without a pick friends. Carr making a case to stay in the silver and black.
Arizona (3-11). If you are the Cardinals, you have issues. Duh. You are the Cardinals. But with each passing week you have to wonder if you have the worst of the five first-round rookie QBs. Josh Rosen, who Arizona traded up to draft the former UCLA gunslinger. Rosen has completed less than 56 percent of his throws – and remember he has an all-timer in Larry Fitzgerald on the perimeter – and has 14 picks to 10 TDs. And there’s no worse holding pattern in the NFL than wondering if your first-round QB pick is actually a franchise QB.