After two years of bitter congressional conflict, both parties are spending hundreds of millions of dollars in hopes of gaining working majorities in next year’s session.
But it’s a long shot — for both. More probably, 2025 will again see divisions in both houses so slender that the party winning the presidency will again find action difficult, starting from Inauguration Day.
The Republicans have a slightly better chance of being able to act. If Trump wins, and they narrowly control both House and Senate, they could enact their pledges of more tax cuts and sweeping domestic spending reductions by using the controversial reconciliation process requiring only simple majorities in both houses.
Meanwhile, a re-elected Joe Biden may have even less leeway since his best hope would likely be a narrow House margin and a 50-50 Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting multiple tie-breaking votes. It would take the loss of only one Senate incumbent for Republicans to gain a majority and the votes to block Biden Cabinet and judicial nominees.
At present, House Republicans believe — and some independent analysts agree — they could well retain their current razor-thin margin. But their mismanagement has given Democrats hope of regaining the majority by taking most of the 16 seats in districts that voted in 2020 for Biden, nine of them in California and New York.
In the Senate, meanwhile, Republicans believe Trump’s strength in several key states could help them regain the majority they held from 2015-2021. But if they do, it will be by a narrow margin, well short of the 60 votes needed for most legislation.
Arizona is one of three open seats that Republicans hope to win, along with Michigan and Maryland. All are part of the current 51-49 Democratic majority.
In Arizona, maverick independent Kyrsten Sinema’s retirement has created a sharply ideological contest between liberal Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake, who narrowly lost a gubernatorial bid in 2022.
In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s retirement has given Republicans hope of winning a Senate seat for the first time since 1994. Both parties have August primaries, but the early favorite is Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
GOP prospects got an unexpected boost when Maryland’s popular former Republican governor, Trump foe Larry Hogan, unexpectedly entered the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.
But despite a strong showing in early polls, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says the favorite is Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who won a bitter Democratic primary.
Recent Senate races have increasingly reflected presidential preferences, which could mean problems for the Democrats. On the other hand, both Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won re-election without winning the House.
Republicans now hold 221 of its 435 seats, including vacancies in two GOP districts, meaning the Democrats would have to gain four seats to win control. The Cook Political Report says that, on a district-by-district basis, “Republicans have a slight edge overall, but it’s not much of one.”
The principal battlegrounds are the 45 open seats, 23 of which are currently held by Democrats. Beyond that, each party has a target list but there is general agreement on the most vulnerable members.
Besides the five California and four New York seats, the main Democratic targets are Republican members in Arizona, Nebraska, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Virginia districts carried by Biden in 2020. Similarly, top GOP targets are Maine, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and Alaska Democrats whose districts backed Trump in 2020.
However these races turn out, the likelihood is that the next president will again have to govern with the narrowest of congressional margins, ensuring two more years of partisan squabbling.