Sign up for the daily newsletter, Jay’s Plays of the Day, to get sports betting recommendations for the top games of the night and the week ahead.
NFL power poll
Before we make like one of those nameless stars with the perpetual 5 o’clock shadow on “Chicago Fire” and get to the poll, it’s time for some real QB1 talk.
First takeaway three weeks into a season when overreactions become more like reaction:
This is not a ranking of best QB1s per se as much as the slots for the most value of QB1s and an order of which guys give your team the best chance to win long-term.
Let’s start at the top, and these are the true franchise guys. Guys who are 100% worth the mega-deals that cost teams multiple quality starters at other positions.
Tier 1: Patty Mahomes and Josh Allen. Jury is still out on Joey Burrows (who was great last night, but the Bengals dropped to 0-3 and 0-2 at home, and he was out-dueled by a rookie) and Lamar Jackson.
— Tier 2 are guys who look the part but have not delivered a high-water moment yet. See, that’s the thing about the guys above. Mahomes, duh. Allen’s AFC title duels with Mahomes. Burrow beating Mahomes. Jackson is one of 11 QBs with multiple MVPs, and the youngest to do so.
Guys in this group, including Dak Prescott — more on him in a moment — Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers (who was once among the Tier 1s, and has the resume line items, but age and skepticism have forced him to dip), and even CJ Stroud.
Stroud is the interesting case study and what made Sunday’s Texans’ collapse even more puzzling. Stroud is on the cusp of elite and still has multiple years on his rookie deal. The time is now, Texans, or Houston, you will have a problem. Matt Stafford is here but fading fast.
— On the cusp: Jordan Love, who was great over the final 10 weeks of last year, but has stood on the sideline as Malik Willis has been good in the Packers offense.
(Two side points centered on Love. First, Falcons, you can’t afford to waste Michael Penix’s entire rookie window like the Packers did with Love, who makes $55 million per season, which is tied with Trevor Lawrence — yikes — and Burrow. Second, coaching clearly matters and whatever they are doing in Green Bay is working.)
Dak is in that boat of being multi-tiered as well, because after a dismal start for the Cowboys, and the real questions about whether Dallas could not afford a RB1 in the offseason or may not be able to pay Micah Parsons because of Dak’s record-setting deal could drop him.
— Speaking of Stroud, the high-upside rookie tier is arguably the most exciting. The Bears are living in that tier right now. After last night, the Commanders with Jayden Daniels are loving this tier right now.
Anyone want to bet that Daniels’ jersey is the best selling non-Cowboys gear this week? Denver and Bo Nix are here.
The 49ers are definitely here with Brock Purdy.
Even the Colts with Anthony Richardson are here. I think the Patriots are here with Drake Maye. I think the Titans are trying to convince themselves that Will Levis is the guy, but he looks like he’s standing on Broadway trying to call a cab to the Bryce Young tier.
The Panthers fell to the bottom because a) they are the Panthers and b) the Bryce Young experiment turned optimism into hatred punctuated with “what, Andy Dalton is better than Bryce Young and we passed on CJ Stroud?”
— And finally, the bank-busters. This could be eventually Dak. Heck, if Joey B and the Bengals do not right the ship, he could find his way here too, but I doubt it. This is the group of guys who were on the cusp of elite and earned that monster contract, but after the mega deal, the fallout revealed too many flaws for QB1 to be elite without high-quality help.
This group is going to seem very familiar. Stafford is close to here. Trevor Lawrence is here. (Is Trevor Lawrence a bust? That conversation must be had after last night’s humiliation.) Tua is here, especially considering his injury woes. Deshaun Watson is assuredly here. Did you know that Watson will make $46 million in 2024? That’s only good enough for 11th among QB1s. Wanna know who is 12th at $45 million? Patty Mahomes. Daniel Jones may be the face of this group.
This is a group that GMs wrestle with about giving the monster second contract, and eventually cave because having an above-average-to-good QB1 and overpay allows for more job security than letting him walk, then whiffing in the draft.
And GMs are a lot like politicians — they are much more concerned with keeping their jobs rather than doing their jobs well.
But it’s most often a mistake unless you are 100% sure of your guy to the point that you walk into the negations and say, “what will it take to sign QB1 to a 10-year deal?” And then of course elite QB1s say, “I’ll take less to help us win.”
Want proof: Mahomes is 11th in salary and that number will drop since he’s early in a 10-year deal; Allen is 14th in salary in ’24. (I’ll have the rest of the tiers in the comments later today.)
To the poll
Wow, that got long.
Let’s slide down the poll. Spy, huh? Like the dance this morning?
1. Kansas City (3-0). Has Mahomes already cracked the Rushmore of faces of QB1s who fill in this blank: “We’re down 4 with 1:04 on the clock at our own 30 and only one timeout. I wish we had (blank).” The Rushmore starts with Brady and Manning. I think Montana has a great argument. Is Mahomes already fourth on that list? Discuss.
2. Buffalo (3-0). No Stefon Digs, no problem. That’s what happens when you get a Tier 1 QB. Man, only a chowder head would have picked Trevor Lawrence over Allen last night. Yikes.
3. Pittsburgh (3-0). Yes, there are only five unbeaten teams three weeks into the season. And the Steelers are the best-built of the other three. And Justin Fields betting on himself in Pittsburgh is going to pay monster dividends.
4. Seattle (3-0). The Seahawks and the Steelers already have two-game leads in their divisions. Which leads us to this great stat: Since 1970, 3-0 teams make the playoffs 76% of the time, according to NFL Football Operations. That was before the playoffs expanded to 14 teams, and 80% of teams that started 3-0 since the expanded postseason have made the playoffs. Teams that start 4-0 made the playoffs 85% of the time before expansion and 100% of the time since.
5. Minnesota (3-0). Sam Darnold and Andy Dalton — it was a great week for red-headed QBs. Somewhere Jason Garrett is wondering if he has anything left.
Powerless
28. Cincinnati (0-3). According to the Sporting News website, only six of the 162 teams which started 0-3 since 1990 have made the postseason. That’s 2.6%, and the only team that has done it since the turn of the millennium — the 2018 Texans.
29 .Carolina (1-2). I know we ignored the “you are what your record says you are,” but I still have way more faith in Burrow and the Bengals than any QB in Charlotte and the Panthers.
30. New York Giants (1-2). Is there any team in the league that would trade their QB for Daniel Jones right now? On the bright side, Giants fans, after Sunday, I’m not sure there is a WR1 I would trade — contracts included — for Malik Nabors. Buckets, check his highlights. https://www.giants.com/video/highlights-wr-malik-nabers-must-see-plays
31. Tennessee (0-3). If you are the Titans, are you already having close-door conversations about who the best college QB1 for your system is? Hmmm.
32. Jacksonville (0-3). Gross.
Do or die
So, again, we are running long on words and short on time So we will hit three high points in the Braves pivotal six-game home stretch starting tonight against the Mets.
First, have to give the Braves a huge edge in starting pitching considering the rotation aligned with Spencer Schwellenbach (who has been a life-saver in the second-half), runaway NL Cy Young fav Chris Sale, and Max Fried in what could be his final home game at Truist if the Braves fail to make the postseason.
Schwellenbach has been amazing against the NL elite, going 18.1 against the Phillies (2.45 ERA) and allowing zero earned in his previous seven innings against the Mets.
The Mets counter with Luis Severino, David Peterson, Sean Manaea.
Second, there’s more to this than meets the scoreboard.
So the Braves-Mets season series is tied 5-5, which means whomever wins this series will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker at the end.
Hmm. Yes, the Braves would love a sweep, and Truist will be rocking. But winning the series keeps their hopes alive.
Finally, Mother Nature will have her say.
Tonight looks fine. Wednesday is 50-50 and Thursday and Friday look to be underwater.
When every game matters, the duration of some of these affairs may be lengthy, and since the Braves and Royals play this weekend — and all those games likely will matter, who knows what the schedule may be.
This and that
› You know the rules. Here’s Paschall on the game of the year (this week’s version) as Georgia heads to Bama to face someone other than Saban.
› Here’s a tabulation of the best area high school football performances from last week.
› “The Voice” starts season 26 this week. We’ll have more TV happenings Wednesday, but do you and your crew watch any of these singing shows? No shame. Just curious.
› More dismal news from my alma mater: Auburn is last among FBS teams in turnovers and turnover margin. Only 14 FBS teams are worse on third down defensively. (And yes, I still think they find away against Oklahoma Saturday.)
› Reggie Bush is suing the NCAA for back pay. Know this people. It’s not the current NIL structure that has the power conference fat cats awake at night. It’s the old lawsuits yet to be filed that could bankrupt the whole thing.
› Hey, the Presidents Cup is this week. Who knew?
› Phillies won the East.
› And Jayden Daniels is even better than advertised. Did you know that the Commanders with Daniels behind center have scored on each drive of the last two games that did not end in taking a knee? He is bona fide.
Today’s questions
True or false, it’s Tuesday. Morning, Ernie.
› True or false, Joe Burrow and the Bengals will defy the odds and make the playoffs.
› True or false, the Braves sweep the Mets.
› True or false, Alabama should be favored over Georgia.
› True or false, if you were a GM, you’d give your next five first-round picks for Mahomes. Your next eight.
› True or false, Justin Fields will be ranked among lite at some point.
As for today, Sept. 24, let’s review:
“60 Minutes” premiered on this day in 1968.
Jim Henson was born on this day in 1936. Have we done a Rushmore of Muppets?
The first autopsy was ordered and recorded on this day in 1657.
Rushmore of best TV and movie autopsy doctors.
Go.