The Washington Commanders have lost three games in a row and are on the verge of reaching their long-awaited open date late in a long season.
Given their now precarious playoff hopes, they cannot even think long term with the Tennessee Titans coming to town Sunday.
“Right now we’re just singular-focused on beating Tennessee and getting a win,” defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said. “That’s where our focus needs to be, and that’s where it is.”
It really is as simple as that for Washington, which has gone from 7-2 to 7-5 with losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys — the latter two division opponents — to drop from first place in the NFC East to the conference’s final wild-card spot in the playoff picture.
The AFC South’s Titans, like the Cowboys, are well below .500 at 3-8, but they’re feeling plenty confident after springing an upset on the road last weekend, when they beat their division’s first-place team and reigning champion, the Houston Texans.
“We’re not dead yet,” Tennessee first-year head coach Brian Callahan said. “We’ve got to keep fighting and keep looking for opportunities to win games.”
Tennessee has roughly a 2% chance of making the playoffs, which would increase to 5% with a victory. Washington’s odds have fallen from 85% when November began to 60% now, and that number would decrease to 42% with a loss to the Titans. The Commanders are listed as 5 1/2-point favorites against Tennessee by BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Titans have not won back-to-back game since November 2022. Beating the Texans gives them the chance to end a 35-game run without stringing together consecutive victories.
“That would go a long way in setting us up for this back half of the season, as the stretch run of the season, to see where we end up by the end of it,” Callahan said.
Washington’s players understand there’s a sense of urgency to turn things around, but they’re taking care not to be so tight it winds up costing them.
“You just go out there and play football,” said quarterback Jayden Daniels, who went from a landslide favorite to be offensive rookie of the year to the narrow top choice ahead of Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. “Execute, and you let the cards fall where they fall. It’s just how we prepare and go out there, have fun and play loose, and we’ll live with the outcomes.”
Some underlying problems started before the outcomes turned ugly for Washington, including a success rate of just 36% on third-down conversions over the past seven games after 52% in the first five this season. Tennessee has the NFL’s top-ranked third-down defense at 31.58%.
“We haven’t been good on third down, and that stops some drives,” said Kliff Kingsbury, who’s in his first season as Commanders offensive coordinator on first-year coach Dan Quinn’s staff. “We’ve talked about, all of us coaches and players, just locking back in and resetting. We know we can get a little break after this, so resetting this week, going all in and trying to play at the level we know we can play at.”
One of the biggest problems for Washington’s offense has been a lack of balance, which was a strength through Daniels’ first few games. Not only was he taking off and putting opponents on their heels, but the one-two punch of running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler was getting things done on the ground.
Ekeler is out with a concussion, though, and Robinson missed the second half of the most recent game with an ankle injury. Still, the strategy is still to rely on the running game as much as physically possible — especially given how Tennessee is the best in the league defending against the pass.
“A really rock-solid, top-to-bottom run game, it’s about everybody,” Quinn said. “It’s very important to us. It’s a part of our toughness and finishing, and so we’re going to work really hard to get that part right.”
Containing Daniels, whose first touchdown run against Dallas was his first since the fourth game of the season, is top of mind for the Titans.
“We have to be disciplined,” defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons said. “The head of the snake. If we’re able to control him, we’re able to keep him in the well, we’ll be just fine.”
As for Tennessee’s quarterback situation, second-year pro Will Levis has a 109.3 passer rating over his past three games since returning from a sprained right shoulder, throwing for 748 yards and five touchdowns with just two interceptions despite being sacked 20 times.
Callahan still wants to see Levis do his part to cut down on the sacks behind an improving offensive line. Levis has had to learn his second offense in as many seasons, but this late in the schedule, Callahan expects the quarterback to understand more and the scheme to become more natural.
“Less hunting of magic plays and big plays, and more taking it as it comes,” Callahan said of what he wants. “When there’s a chance to make a play with your feet, make a play with your feet.”
Levis is set to be become just the third quarterback in franchise history to start at least nine games in each of his first two NFL seasons, joining Vince Young and Marcus Mariota. Neither player received a second contract from the Titans, though, and Mariota is now Daniels’ backup with Washington.