Sign up for the daily newsletter, Jay’s Plays of the Day, to get sports betting recommendations for the top games of the night and the week ahead.
Top heavy
So we asked Wednesday if the over/under of SEC men’s basketball tournament teams was 8.5, which way are you going?
Most of you went over, and I tend to lean that way too.
But there is a clear divide in the SEC this season.
Take the midweek results in which several of the league’s top-tier crews claimed road wins; most of those were convincing, to be honest.
On Wednesday, UT won at Mississippi State by nine, and Alabama and Florida rolled in road dates at Ole Miss and Georgia respectively.
It came a day after Vandy won at Auburn.
So if we stay with the 8.5 number, let’s set the tiers. And we’ll do it with the caveat that these are crafted with the knowledge that a season-changing injury (read Darius Acuff or Labaron Philon, goodness forbid) or a complete collapse/win-out hot streak changes a lot of things.
The big six — Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas Tennessee, Alabama, and Vandy — are locks right now.
‘The bottom five — Ole Miss, Miss. State, South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma — are out.
So the breakdown of going over or under 8.5 centers on the middle five. Let’s review with mini-analysis and projections with seven conference games remaining:
› Missouri (17-7, 7-4) — Playing its best basketball of the season and winners of three straight. I think MU will be in.
› Texas A&M (17-7, 7-4) — A great early-season story, but the current three-game losing streak forbears issues for the Bucky Ballers. If it was selection Thursday, the Aggies are in. The schedule is a mixed bag down the stretch with games at Vandy and Arkansas and at home vs. UK. But the rest is against the dregs. A 4-3 walk to the finish line will be more than enough.
› Texas (15-9, 6-5) — Who knows, right? The Horns have a lot of control with three of their final seven against these middle-tier compatriots. The biggest issue is a schedule devoid of high-profile wins.
› Georgia (17-7, 5-6) — Could Texas at Georgia be a play-in game? Maybe.
Auburn (14-10, 5-6) — An incredibly difficult schedule will be a plus, which means if the Tigers finish 9-9, they likely are in. Which assuredly will make MC tickled.
Thoughts?
(So yes, I think it goes over 8.5 and likely could get to 10, as many of you suggested.)
New frontier with old idea
Regulars around these parts know we have said for years that a lot of the NCAA’s inactivity and inability comes from the fear of the Power Four conferences breaking away from the fold.
Some simple truths to know on this front.
The NCAA has long since ignored anything meaningful in football. Since Ed O’Bannon made NIL the most universal acronym this side of FBI, the NCAA goes full-blown ostrich with every dispute or perceived violation because of the real threat of the brand names finding a brand new ballgame.
The NCAA makes 95ish% of its operating budget for everything of the TV money from the NCAA tournament. It’s a wonderful event and worth every penny to CBS and Turner Sports. But the NCAA is at least smart enough to realize that the magic of March in which we all try to find our David to topple Goliath is based in this fact: Unlike the Old Testament, there are countless, interchangeable Davids, but he’s nothing without the Goliaths of the Dukes, the Kentuckys and the Kansases. David over Goliath is an NCAA tournament highlight for a decade; David over David is the SoCon quarterfinals.
But earlier this month, Kirk Herbstreit offered the familiar refrain that actually makes more sense now than ever.
The Power Four in football needs to start its own league.
The traditional rules and regulations have been long been ignored; now those rules have been neutered.
P4 needs to start over, and bring the athletes in to collectively bargain the terms.
Rewrite the rules in terms of NIL (salary cap, anyone?), the portal, eligibility and playoff qualifications, among others. (Side note: Add one more relegation — the process in which the bottom feeders get dropped — so the last two finishers among the Power Four swap spots with the top-two finishers in the Group of Five.)
Do this preemptively and make the NCAA and the NFL cohorts.
Yes, the NFL, because know this: The NFL is paying close attention to the machinations of the current state of the college football.
High-level college football is a de facto and free minor league for the NFL, which understandably wants to protect that.
Plus, it’s easily the most publicized and most famous minor league operation, so the NFL’s future stars already come with buzz, fans and notoriety.
Now is the time, though, because there are so many things that need to be addressed, that rebooting the whole system makes all the sense in the world.
Which of course means a) the NCAA has no interest in it whatsoever, and b) the power programs most interested in dollars — and keeping those dollars for themselves — more than sense will have to be coerced.
Super price tag
OK, sports radio dudes are prone to saying outlandish things. Yes, I know from experience.
Moving on.
So when Boomer Esiason — an NYC sports radio shock jock — suggested that the NFL never give California another Super Bowl, my first thought was. “Whatever. I get it. Gavin Newsom, blah, blah, blah … More politics in sports yada, yada, yada …”
But reading this story made it clear that this is about purse strings not politics.
The story includes a breakdown from a Forbes writer who clearly shows the premise that Sam Darnold actually lost money by his team making the Super Bowl.
Seriously.
Yes, Darnold assuredly rewrote his professional legacy by finishing his turnover-less postseason with a Super Bowl victory.
But the fiscal numbers are far less impressive for the former No. 3 overall pick who has 31 wins over the last two NFL seasons, playoffs included.
Professional athletes are taxed where they are practicing and playing. Those are known as duty days, and it makes the very real bargaining scenario of going to teams in Tennessee or Florida or others without state income taxes.
With that, let’s give the floor to Nathan Goldman, who wrote this for Forbes:
“Some assumptions are difficult to validate without knowing the precise number of duty days players record and exactly how many days players record as duty days for the Super Bowl. However, assuming that Darnold has 180 duty days each year, these eight Super Bowl days represent 4.44% of his year, and California will apportion approximately $1.5 million of his compensation, levying a 13.3% state income tax on this compensation.
“The net impact from even the most basic calculations suggests that Darnold will be in a worse financial position for playing in Super Bowl LX than if his team did not make it. For instance, ignoring any bonuses earned and federal tax deductions, this simplified and illustrative model suggests that Darnold will owe an incremental $197,771 in California state income taxes despite only being paid $178,000.”
Yes, that made my head hurt too, but it needed to be shared, right?
So Esiason says the NFLPA should ban California for the sake of its membership and their wallets.
This and that
> Steelers on Steelers crime here, as Joey Porter trashes his former QB1 in Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger.
> Rules, people. Here’s Paschall on UT landing a QB commitment from the metro Atlanta area for the 2027 cycle.
> More rules, gang. Here’s Hargis on uber-successful football coach Gary Rankin resigning from Boyd-Buchanan. The hammer quote here is Rankin saying he is still looking to be a head coach. “I want to make it clear that I ain’t retiring. I’m just resigning,” Rankin said. “I’ve still got a little juice left and I’m in good health, so I can coach for several more years if it’s the right situation. I’m just resigning from this job in time so they can get a good replacement.” Rankin is 510-85, and he is one of five coaches nationally with 500 or more career wins. Yeah, dude knows how to do this.
> The struggles of the injury-riddled Mocs continued Wednesday with a loss at ETSU. Here’s more from TFP UTC beat ace Gene Henley.
> The NBA All-Star Game is this weekend. Who knew? This year it’s the U.S. vs. the World, so at least they are trying to find ways to create interest. FoxSports’ Nick Wright said recently if they really want guys to play hard and create interest, make it white guys vs. Black guys and roll the dice. Seriously.
Today’s questions
Anything Goes Thursday — the ol’ AGT — is in full swing.
Fire away, and we’ll either get back to you today or use it for the mailbag.
As for today, Feb. 12, let’s review.
Josh Brolin is 58. A fine thespian and a very stout career.
Bill Russell would have been 92 today.
He assuredly makes the Rushmore of sports folks named Bill, right?
Who else, and this one could get sneaky tough.
And remember the mailbag.