By Paul Richter and Lisa Mascaro
Tribune Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON-The Senate vote as soon as today on a U.S.-Russia arms treaty could be a defining moment for the Obama administration’s foreign policy.
The vote on the New START agreement could strengthen President Barack Obama’s hand on a long list of foreign policy challenges, or show foreign leaders unexpected weakness at a moment when the president badly needs a foreign policy victory.
By bolstering Obama’s “reset” of relations with Russia the Senate vote would help the White House with Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea and nuclear proliferation, among others. And by demonstrating that the United States is willing to reduce its own nuclear arsenal, it would encourage other countries to take part in the administration’s nuclear arms reductions agenda.
The Obama administration has held out its “reset” of relations with Russia as its most tangible foreign policy accomplishment of the past two years. It has viewed the New START treaty, which would reduce the ceiling on long-distance nuclear warheads by up to 30 percent, as the centerpiece of the new relationship with Moscow.
The outcome of the vote, in shifting perceptions of the administration, could have wide effects on how much other world powers help the United States in the war in Afghanistan, the struggle to contain Iran’s nuclear program, and its efforts to forge a Middle East peace.
Russia, by itself, has enormous influence in these efforts. It has close economic ties to Iran, including in civil nuclear power, and its cooperation could make the difference in efforts to pressure the Islamic regime to accept limits on its nuclear program.
“At this point, he needs a foreign-policy win,” said Paul J. Saunders, a former State Department official at the Nixon Center in Washington. But Saunders said that even if Obama ekes out a victory in the Senate, it will be a narrow one that may not inspire much confidence in Moscow or other foreign capitals.
If the Senate rejects the pact for this year, foreign leaders will question anew how much strength remains in an administration that is embattled on Iran, Afghanistan, Arab-Israeli peacemaking and North Korea.
A rejection may make cooperation more difficult with the Russians on future nuclear arms reduction, but also on related issues, such as the coordinated missile defense system the two countries have been discussing, Saunders said.
The vote comes at a time when world powers have been reassessing the administration’s power in light of its midterm election setbacks, the unraveling of its strategy for Arab-Israeli peacemaking, and other setbacks.
In Israel, some conservative political leaders have already said they see Obama’s polls and political strength ebbing, and have urged their government to push back harder against administration pressure.
On Monday, the Senate considered several possible amendments to the treaty, including one to increase the number of annual inspections of each country’s nuclear sites, and a second to increase the number of allowable nuclear weapons launchers.
Tuesday advocates are expected to vote to cut off debate on the treaty, a step that would open the way for a final vote late Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday.
Most U.S.-Russia arms treaties have won overwhelming bipartisan support, and as recently as this summer, supporters believed New START would coast easily to ratification. But the treaty aroused conservatives’ fears of Russia, and became entangled in the broader political struggle over Obama’s record as the next presidential campaign approaches.
In recent days, as the administration pushed hard for a vote during angry disputes over bills on immigration and the treatment of gays in the military, the debate has become more embittered. Saunders said he feared the final hours of deliberations have polarized issues between the two parties in a way that “will be extremely unconstructive going forward.”
The treaty has wide support from former leaders of the U.S. foreign policy establishment from both parties, even though it is generally viewed as an incremental step in scaling back the vast nuclear arsenals of the two Cold War rivals.
Russia signaled its interest in the treaty on Monday, warning the Senate not to change the language because Moscow would not be willing to renegotiate it.
Sergei V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, told the Interfax news agency that the treaty, “worked out on the strict basis of parity, in our view fully answers to the national interest of Russia and the United States.”
He said the treaty “cannot be opened up and become the subject of new negotiations.”
As senators debated the treaty, administration officials, working from a committee room, made their final pitches to Republican members. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., meanwhile, urged members not to help supporters win the 67 votes they need for ratification.
Republican members have argued that the treaty would benefit Russia more than the United States, and have cited their concerns that it could limit the United States’ ability to expand its missile defense systems.
McConnell, in comments on the Senate floor, argued that every Republican issue should be addressed, and that “our top concern should be the safety and security of our nation, not some politician’s desire to declare a political victory and host a press conference before the end of the year.”
Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton worked the phones to win over Republican votes. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, sent a letter to the Senate, emphasizing again his view that that the treaty would protect U.S. interests.
Administration officials fear that the treaty will face a far tough process if it is delayed until next year, when the Senate will include five more Republicans.
Aides to Senate supporters of the treaty said that of the nine Republican members they need, they have four committed supporters: Richard Lugar of Indiana, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and George Voinovich of Ohio. Scott Brown of Massachusetts announced Monday that he would also vote to ratify the treaty.
Those considered as likely or possible Republican votes are Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee, Johnny Isakson of Georgia and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Bob Bennett of Utah, Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Thad Cochran of Mississippi are considered maybes.
John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are considered unknowns. But advocates say the White House has been working hard to win over McCain, in part out of its view that McCain could bring along other Republican votes.
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Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.