By the time you read this, early voting will be over and Election Day — for the Hamilton County general election and the Tennessee primary election — will be ahead on Aug. 6.
Will the results surprise us? Will the conventional wisdom be upset and someone elected or defeated that we didn’t expect?
With that in mind, we offer you today — by year — some of the biggest August surprises in Hamilton County and Tennessee elections in this century. This list is not meant to be exhaustive, and you may have different thoughts. But you never know what might happen in an election. So make your choice at the ballot box, if you haven’t already.
2024: Anti-fluoride, anti-vaxxer Michele Reneau knocked off respected five-term state Rep. Patsy Hazlewood in the District 27 Republican primary. Reneau benefited from a scurrilous campaign that tried to paint the conservative Hazlewood as a liberal and from a grassroots get-out-the-vote effort by her Calvary Chapel church.
2020: Marquita Bradshaw, a West Tennessee environmental activist, defeated Nashville attorney James Mackler, the conventional pick, to win the Democratic nomination for United States Senate. Mackler finished third. Bradshaw, in a solid Republican state, was soundly thumped by former Ambassador Bill Hagerty that November.
2018: Businessman Bill Lee wiggled between front-runners Randy Boyd and U.S. Rep. Diane Black to win the Republican nomination for governor. Boyd, now president of the University of Tennessee, and Black were viewed as too busy bashing the other to notice Lee’s rise. Hamilton County GOP voters, perhaps sensing what was coming, gave Lee more votes than Boyd and Black combined. Lee, of course, went on to win the general election and is now finishing his second term as governor.
2016: Former teacher Kathy Lennon defeated Hamilton County Board of Education Chair Jonathan Welch, a Signal Mountain dentist, by 98 votes out of nearly 3,500 cast to win the board’s District 2 seat. The school district was seen as having a number of problems at the time, so voters evidently took out their anger on the board chair.
2014: Cementing Republican domination of Hamilton County constitutional offices, Steve Smith turned away multi-term Democratic public defender Ardena Garth, and state Rep. Vince Dean bumped off incumbent Criminal Court clerk Gwen Tidwell. Smith and Dean are still in office.
2012: Following the 2010 census, the now-Republican majority Tennessee legislature redistricted Senate and House seats, putting together two Democratic seats in Hamilton County. In a race between two former colleagues and friends, JoAnne Favors trounced Tommie Brown, 71.3% to 28.5%.
2010: In the open race for the 3rd District U.S. House seat, little-known attorney Chuck Fleischmann emerged from a field of 11 to win the Republican nomination with 29.7% of the vote. Among his opponents were Robin Smith, who had served as chair both of the Hamilton County Republican Party and the Tennessee Republican Party, and respected Bradley County Sheriff Tim Gobble. Fleischmann went on to defeat attorney John Wolfe in the general election and remains in office — and is seeking his ninth term — today.
2008: In a bitter battle for the Republican nomination for the District 31 state House seat that included part of Hamilton County, incumbent Jim Cobb beat former state Rep. Jim Vincent, who also had been a Hamilton County commissioner. Cobb held onto the seat by earning a large majority of votes in his home Rhea County. In a turn of events, Vincent is now county executive of Rhea County.
2006: Multi-term Republican Hamilton County Sheriff John Cupp was ousted by former sheriff’s deputy Billy Long by fewer than 1,000 votes out of more than 44,000 votes cast. Long resigned less than two years after taking office and later pleaded guilty to federal extortion, money laundering and drug and weapons charges.
2004: Longtime state Rep. Brenda Turner, daughter of a former Chattanooga city official and onetime Hamilton County sheriff, was turned out of office in the Democratic primary for state House by Hamilton County Commissioner JoAnne Favors. Favors went on to serve until 2018.
2002: Perhaps only a slight surprise, incumbent Chris Clem kept his District 27 state House seat by overcoming multi-term Chattanooga City Council member John Lively. Clem won with 52.9% of the vote.
2000: In a contest between two men who would go on to serve Hamilton County for many years, Riverbend Festival executive director Chip Baker defeated attorney Gary Starnes, 66.8% to 32.8%, to win the District 2 seat on the Hamilton County Board of Education. Baker went on to be a Hamilton County commissioner and Starnes a judge in Hamilton County General Sessions Court.